Friday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +97

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 export (0.1% v 0.4%)/import (-0.2% v -0.2%) prices were reported mixed. The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2308 record close, bounced around a bit, then started to move higher. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 95.7 v 98.5. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2319. At 2pm the government reported a budget surplus: $51.3B v $55.2B. Then a small pullback heading into the close ended the week at SPX 2316.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported unchanged at 61.8%, and the Q1 GDP estimate ended the week at 2.7% v 3.4% last week.

The market opened higher today, hardly pulled back at all – avoiding to trigger yesterday’s negative divergence, and then started moving higher. By 10:30 the SPX entered the OEW 2321 pivot range, dipped, and then rose to SPX 2319. Within 2 points of the OEW 2321 pivot. So far the rally looks good, having advanced above SPX 2305 to 2319 with nothing more than a 4 point pullback. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with another negative divergence. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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31 Responses to Friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    ….and maybe some WOW music….charts tomorrow…
    Thanks Tony, and everyone….really great stuff xx

  2. alexh110 says:

    Tony, found an interesting website on Gold here, going all the way back to 30BC:

    The data is not precise enough to infer a cycle length for the Roman Empire, although the first official devaluation seems to have taken over 200 years.

    I had another look at the Measuring Worth website data too, and discovered some evidence of a 30 year price cycle in the 18th century.
    In the 14th-17th centuries the English gold price seems to increase roughly every 60 years: so either the cycle was twice as long; or the official price was resistant to the market price, and only increased every other cycle.

  3. torehund says:

    Martin stresses that the empire always fall from the periphery in, and judging by many countries the confidence in government i in rapid decline due to corruption and a bloated government/inefficient/bad service public sector. Oil producers did fine with 140 Usd a barrel, further fueling the “drunken sailor” spending. Now its new times and Brazil may be next out after Venezuela. Looking at the real, its ready to take a hit as the toppish part is close to fully tertraced. Also note macd histogram ready to turn positive. Special K signals a long term bottom for the Usd is coming to an end.

  4. I’m a believer in your count tony. Been a bear for a long time. Playing with some number, micro 3 probably ends at 2333. Micro 1 was 49 points. 1.618 of 49 is 79. 2254 low micro 2 plus 79 is 2333.
    Micro 4 should around 2296 a 50 percent correction
    Micro 5 = micro 1 at 2345, but can go higher, just not higher then 2374
    Then minute 4 assumes micro 5 ends at 2350 a 50 percent retrace is 48 points so 2302
    Minute 5 would equal minute 1 at 2372
    Then minor 4 should be 70 points to 2302
    Then minor 5 equals minor 1 with a 194 point gain or 2496
    Int 4 would be say 50 percent of Int 3 which would be 505 points so say a 250 point decline would be 2246
    Then Int 5 equal Int 1 with a 300 point gain at 2546
    That only ends major 1 of p3
    Major 2 2546-1811 is 735 so 50 percent retrace is 367 so down to 2179
    Major 3 call it 800 points 2879
    Major 4 2479
    Major 5 3279 to end p3
    P4 half of the 1478 move call it or 734 3279-734 is 2545 that’s a lot higher then the 2300 range we are at now
    Then p5 =p1 at another 1060 point gain bull market is nds at 2545 plus 1060 = 3605

    I’m calling the bull top right here at 3605. No more bear comments ever. Giddy up

  5. Tony you have a pretty bullish count is the probability high for a rapid 10 percent move upward? What’s your feeling the vix is signalling at the moment?

    • 123 abc says:

      Don’t think the VIX has ever closed below 10 on a monthly basis? So its currently at a very strong support level. However, should the OEW count be correct; i.e. a third of third, then the VIX may imminently breakdown and would become the talk of the town…

    • tony caldaro says:

      not considering that possibility at this time
      one day at a time

  6. Tony you have are pretty bullish count is the probability high for a rapid 10 percent move upward? What’s your feeling the vix is signalling at the moment?

  7. pooch77 says:

    Buy the Vaentined day pullback

  8. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW updates; looking bigly bullish, the Trump-wall of worry is being climbed.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Enjoy the weekend all.

  10. llerias7 says:

    Sweet spot. Acording with SPX hourly chart we are in micro iii of minute iii of minor 3 of Int.3 of major 1 of P3(?)…wow

  11. dineromedia says:


    Sent from my iPhone 6s+


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