Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -36

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2293 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked down to 2285, and then began to rebound. Around 11am the market turned positive, hit SPX 2296 by 3:30, then dipped to close at 2295.

For the day the SPX/DOW was mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold climbed $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened 6 points lower and it looked like it was going to do something today. A few minutes later the market found support at SPX 2285 and started to rebound. Just past 11am it turned positive, and then went back to doing nothing. Thought for a moment we would have something to write about today. But the market remained between SPX 2267 and SPX 2305 levels for the 6th day in a row. The range for this week is SPX 2285-2299. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold early, then rose to above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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131 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Tony….Thank You….

  2. jamhas26 says:

    Thanks for the Bitcoin article from a few weeks back FionaMargaret. I took a short order on it yesterday due to what was written!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Be careful JH…I don’t endorse the articles I post…..just think the ideas are interesting.
      I hope you do stunningly well ‘tho. x

  3. Will we ever see a Correction?

  4. a lot of after market misses, Everyone says earnings are awesome, All of retail, restaurant’s, such as buffalo wild wings, etc Yelp, expedia WOW, im missing where there great, need to listen more to krammer I guess. I. Kept my short from 2308.50 see what tomorrow brings out anything over 2312. have a good night all,

  5. micky says:

    Gee all those ones and twos are really sending the threes .Joe , you see why its important to have a system that keeps you in the trend? N o matter what the count may or may not be.

  6. NEWBIE says:

    Bad news will come out tommorow or over the weekend. That news will be used as the excuse to drop this market 100 spx points.

  7. phil1247 says:

    bada bing !

    /ES 2308.50 target hit !

    hasta

  8. purplember says:

    Tony, russell 2000 was leading in nov & dec but lagging now. still hasn’t made a new high. any concern there ?

  9. Dex T says:

    Bond King Says the U.S. Economy Is Headed for Recession

    “Bond investor Bill Gross said on Monday that without quantitative easing from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would “rather quickly” rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession.

    Overall, Gross said a client of his recently asked when the Federal Reserve or other central banks would ever be able to sell their assets back into the market.

    “My answer was ‘NEVER’. A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet is PERMANENT—and growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and the BOJ,” Gross wrote.”

    http://fortune.com/2017/02/06/bill-gross-predicts-recession/

    • Dex T says:

      Tony,

      The info above is why Trump is going to become involved in Fed policy.

      A recession is almost a guarantee at some point of his 4 year tenure. When the economy does turn south he is going to blame any and everyone and the Fed is among the top culprits with it’s balance sheet.

      Trump has no reverence for ANY institution and isn’t going to respect Fed autonomy just because.

    • tommyboys says:

      Rising rates not so good for a bond salesman. He came into his own in the right part of the cycle. It’s well behind us and so is Gross. Retirement long over due…

  10. prakashbkc says:

    Tony sir,
    Now spx target 3000+ finally?

  11. wildmarkets says:

    Tony is the big force here in this market 🙂 Lot of guys who are running the blogs and putting in their comments are based on what Tony’s OEW counts are. They all align in the same direction with few tweaks here and there! Tony was bearish early in 2016 and all went after him and most are ultra bullish. I would be waiting to see what others do when Tony turns bearish lol

  12. torehund says:

    Just no way sentiment is anywhere close to any high. Pre-revolutionary anger cant possibly be a sign of the latter. Hold what you have until the dudometer is at opposite of where it is now 🙂
    Perfect sentiment for a P-III…

  13. bolderbob says:

    Tony, now that we are over 2305 and set a new high are we in a minute 3 as suggested in the weekend update? If so is the target 2336? Thanks Tony!

  14. phil1247 says:

    /ES

    thru 2303 target

    in ext longs

    bullish above 2299
    next target 2309

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Oh come on gives us more than a 2% pb to add to longs. Too high too soon.

  16. H D says:

    2017 rallies: 3 waves- 2234-2282=48, 2254-2301=47, 2267-2310-2315 ?

    Tony, what was the UNU consensus for this weeks closing range on SPX?

  17. one short here with a stop at 2312 worth a 3.5 point loss

    • blackjak100 says:

      Yes, I was thinking same thing. It would be unusual to have ED in play but it still has not been invalidated. 2311.18 to be exact.

  18. I can’t confirm this independently,but James Bullard gave a speech today,that various bloggers are saying indicated “one hike this year.”If true,an interesting dilemma for dollar traders.Dollar MACD crossing up.If you didn’t take profits,like I did a couple days ago,be aware of that anti-gold influence.See how the 20d acts at about 24 on GDX.Later.

    • Dex T says:

      Market doesn’t believe him. It’s still saying 2-3 rate hikes this year.

      Apparently Trump had a 3 Am call with General Flynn about the U.S. dollar so it’s very much on his mind

      • Market is in full greed mode.

        • Dex T says:

          It’s been that way for years now. Last January was the last time we had a real correction.

          Can only wait and see what transpires.

        • Dex T says:

          I just saw the info on Bullard.

          What he really means is that the Fed will do nothing until they figure out what the Trump admin wants. Trump is expected to name some people to the board later in the year who will dictate the policy.

          • tony caldaro says:

            If the FED gets politicized we can all kiss this bull market good bye.
            Politicians can’t even agree on the weather.
            How are they going to run an economy.

            • Dex T says:

              Like it or not the Fed admitted as much when they raised rates due to Trump.

              The Fed has already been politicized by their ties to large wall street banks and the aggressive lobbying made by those banks. Also the constant publicity seeking by various members of the Fed.

              Yellen will be out in less than 1 year and Trump has the right to name a successor and can name 2 members to the board before then.

              Where he and his administration want rates to be remains to be determined (likely over 1%) but Trump campaigned extensively on auditing the Fed and on there being a financial bubble so he will make his presence known.

              • tony caldaro says:

                Think he was campaigning to the Tea Party at the time
                There is no way some key people in his cabinet, will remain in his cabinet, if he takes over the FED.
                Janet’s term is over next year.
                The president always nominates the successor.

            • Dex T says:

              Maybe they won’t remain I his cabinet but I still expect Trump to get involved with the Fed.
              Whatever previous administrations did and whatever bankers think isn’t relevant.
              Trump has never done anything by the book and isn’t going to respect their autonomy.

            • EL MATADOR says:

              Fed is politicized, IMO. How man globalist elites sit on the FED now. I will start the list, Yellen (yes), Fischer (yes)…….I am still of the opine that Trump will dump Yellen (and she will raise rates while she has the power) but I’m 50/50 as to whether he will dump Fischer, IMO he should dump Fischer too. Trump also need to replace Gary D. Cohn, this dude is Un Bad Hombre. Just my 2c

              • Dex T says:

                I doubt he will dump Yellen. She has less than 1 year left and she isn’t his top priority. He needs the time to focus on other matters and then search for a suitable replacement for her.

                I agree with dumping Fischer and Cohn. No sense keeping them on.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Bullard is just a rock star wannabe
      Janet parades him out there every now and then

  19. Page says:

    Happy days are here 😀

  20. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Same chart as yesterday without the numbers.
    SPX ~ Pivot Breakout/Failure Zone? > 2330 then 2365
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/oUbRfxz4/

  21. blackjak100 says:

    I see no bearish counts if 2311 is taken out which eliminates ED from 2257.

    • NEWBIE says:

      We are either topping and partys over end of bull market or 100 point drop and then off to new highs

      • gary61b says:

        BJak100, hows the building market outlook for this year?( are you in commercial or residential)

        • blackjak100 says:

          Residential and we continue to grow like crazy. However for the first time in a few years, I’m hearing our competitors are not crazy busy like we are. Then again, we do too many jobs where we break even which means we are too cheap. We are also subsidized by the unions still.

  22. 123 abc says:

    Tony, under OEW, can 2257 be the end of Minute-ii wave? I.e. this would be the equivalent count on the DOW where 19677 ends Minute-ii wave. Such a count would avoid getting into Nano and Pico waves on the SPX.

  23. Trump hints tax cut proposal in a few weeks.What Congress does with it is another question.Market algos don’t care about details though.Everyone load up.

  24. scottycj1 says:

    On Monday I posted…………

    scottycj1 says:
    February 7, 2017 at 12:48 pm

    I have tomorrow Feb 8th as a ST Cit…likely an acceleration higher point.
    Reply

  25. new high’s are assured, question is does it break straight to 2320 or pull back, my opinion bears get run over closes at highs of the day

    • NEWBIE says:

      What bears? They have all capitulated. Only a few left including me and goldman sachs.

      • scottycj1 says:

        There are a ton of bears…ALL with reasons why the market can not be this high….
        yet here it is and the uptrend is steepening. Keep using logic and you will be disappointed.
        The kids with pencils and rulers are making all the money 🙂

        • NEWBIE says:

          Show me what evidence you have to support your assesment that ” there are a ton of bears”

          • gary61b says:

            Newbie love your unbiased view of the market.. your videos are awesome as well.

          • scottycj1 says:

            read the blogs…and A) I dont trust GS and B) you have been wrong for as long as I can remember—-More importantly the market is making new highs. WHO is going to sell ?

            There is no incentive to sell “Why should I sell ? Prices keep going up !……people sell when the market goes down….they are followers.

  26. NEWBIE says:

    Wow this is such a bubble.

  27. mcgcapital says:

    Short FTSE here at double top 7215. 3pm turn possibly. Looking for 7180 then 7160 pivot.

  28. Just checked the AAII sentiment #s.How could Pisani get THAT wrong?He’s usually a bull cheerleader as well.Anyways a couple loose items to clear up.Phil asked yesterday why bonds got hit early afternoon–bad auction.
    The GDX volume has been getting lower and lower as prices move up.Keep an eye on that.Either no one is a believer in gold miners or they don’t believe it can break the 200d(and black crows).Watch volume to some degree,at least on this first attempt up to start a new bull move.Good luck all.

  29. gary61b says:

    ES needs to stay above 2290 or its headed to 2286.75 for starters.

  30. tommyboys says:

    AAII sentiment this week basically about long term average/neutral – which it has been the past several weeks.
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  31. cj32 says:

    Cr.CBZ

  32. stormchaser80 says:

    SPX did not make a new high today with negative divergences still holding at the 1/26 peak. The hourly chart did not put in many positive divergences at this morning’s low, thus a lower low is expected which may occur pre-market. $VIX continues in a short uptrend, and with a lack of negative divergences at today’s peak, a higher high is expected.

    Oil had a bounce but HYG:IEF had losses again today. Believe this bounce in oil will be short lived before the downtrend continues.

    McClellan had another negative day, but my proprietary Technicals Model was positive. Due to my model, I suspect we are not yet done with stabs higher. But this retrace lower has to finish first.

    My legacy LONG signal remains ‘YES’. It is not uncommon for any technical indicator to go positive after a prolonged negative period at the end of a long run higher.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  33. Jack Sparrow says:

    the chart i posted over weekend is still a play..so now we are in c of 3.

  34. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  35. It would appear we are at a bull bear cross road. How does it resolve , well if like the past 100 times bears get crushed and we move higher. Always take the bull path. I’m not holding a position,

  36. Gold miners report their results starting Feb 15th.From what i’ve read,should be nothing bearish.Good luck all.

  37. The rate of ascent in the short term has slowed and I have adjusted the shortest term channel (purple) to reflect this and if the current pace continues its possible we peak in the 2303/2304 area with the latter being an ON high not seen during RTH. Pure speculation. Closing order imbalance was around $600 million on the buy side. Large speculators are long while commercial speculators and hedge fund are short according to the latest COT. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZruiEJuo/

  38. Bud Fox says:

    SHLD… wonder what the future holds. High was $120,
    6-7 years ago. There property values, only thing that
    seems to be holding up the share price, amazing decline
    of a retailer

    • tommyboys says:

      B&M in jeopardy and decline macroly while Sears/Kmart – by FAR – the most vulnerable of these for sure. Can’t imagine either of these a concern in 3-5 years.

  39. zvyezda says:

    I realize ‘algos don’t need no stinkin’ galoshes’ but if someone needs to turn them on, or there are any humans left at trading desks, NYC is going from 59 degrees today to ice then snowstorm accumulating 8 to 12 inches, running from the time of the European open to the NY close, so expect thinner volume.

    In the ‘old days’ a snowstorm tended to be a plus day but tonight I’m watching if ESH7 2285.50, then 2281.00 get broken, then see if the DAX kicks in lower as well.

  40. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES_F at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  41. soulsurfer says:

    new all-time record for the market not able to produce a 1% move…

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