Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open minor gains, DOW +38

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the trade deficit was reported lower: -$44.3B v -$45.2B. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2293 close, ticked up to 2299, and then started to pullback. By 1pm the SPX had hit 2290. At 3pm consumer credit was reported lower: $14.2B v 24.5B. Just after 3pm the market hit  SPX 2295. Then a pullback ended the day at SPX 2293.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds rose 4 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots.

The market opened higher today. The DOW/NDX/NAZ made all-time new highs, but the SPX did not. Then the market started to pullback. There remains some stiff resistance around the SPX 2300 level. Look at the daily highs over the past two weeks: 01/25 2300, 01/26 2301, 02/03 2298 and 02/07 2299. The market may need to gap over this level if this uptrend is going to extend any time soon. SPX 2267 and 2305 remain the key levels to watch. Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum set up another negative divergence at today’s high then dropped to neutral. Best to your trading!

Please join us at the UNU Swarm at 5PM. cheers!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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101 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. gary61b says:

    es 2289.75 will be tagged again then 2295 is still needing a revisit.

  2. micky says:

    looking like a pair of ones and twos up from the low..

  3. looks like its going to be a squeeze into the close.3;30 buy the close

  4. MY question is (unanswerable)how long does GDX ride the upper BB on the daily.

  5. mcgcapital says:

    Out of my FTSE shorts from 7350 and 7200. Just got bored of waiting for the move as it’s been weeks of nothing. My next swing entry target is a long around 6930-7000. This market is better suited to day trading with the vix this low.

  6. phil1247 says:


    why did bonds plunge?

  7. phil1247 says:


    did da boyze front run the 1248 target

    bearish below 1244 now

  8. phil1247 says:


    tried /cl short at 52.42

  9. H D says:

    Oil trade feels kinda crowded, still think $52 is a bad place to get involved. Gave em the shake-n-bake. Meanwhile, SPX rallies 10 HanDles and finds sellers(BOTs) like Pavlov’s dogs.

  10. Page says:

    WTI is heading towards 54-55.
    Gold/Miners run is over.

  11. If anyone can explain how crude oil,with a build of 13m barrels,goes UP,I’d appreciate it.Normal supply and demand dictates a $3 selloff minimum.This was not just on one survey,but confirmed by both.Maybe it’ll take a day to sink in-like some of these events seem to need to kick in.This is the ultimate headscratcher of all headscratchers.

    • CampFreddie says:

      No head scratching required. If you think you get price sensitive info the same time as everyone else, you may have another lesson to learn. The day chart actually looks very bullish. Gl.

    • phil1247 says:

      EASY answer

      news does not matter

    • cyanus66 says:

      An uptrend shrugs off bad news. Same old story.
      Since last year in CL the trend has been your f—-d (many possible answers here 🙂 )

    • gtoptions says:

      Maybe it was the Weekly Support, or if you Look Left, as Lee would say. 😉


    • CampFreddie says:

      Us crude future continuous – Daily.

    • frankrizzo31 says:

      Crude has been trading in a tight range since last November but with the crazy build in inventories and warmer than expected weather, the trend will revert downward. This is a dead cat bounce. MHO.

      • I knew Camp Freddie and Phil would say what they said.How about this scenario.If equities knew profits from this point forward were to fall 50%,wouldn’t stocks be expected to fall as well initially? (Until QE was announced again).If interest rates were raised 1% next Fed meeting,you don’t think there’d be a reaction?Crude didn’t do anything.Like I said,maybe a delayed reaction.

        • phil1247 says:

          the key to this game is finding the trend

          news CANNOT change the trend

          kennedys assassination could not change the trend

          why would a tibit of news do it ??????

          • Watch how Trumps agenda getting delayed (news,fundamentals)affects stocks.There was a drop for Kennedy’s assassination of 10%,I believe.Crude has been comfortably going up,but then,what I think is a trend changer emerges…and nothing–YET.
            Ingredients are in place for bonds to rally,stocks and dollar falls,gold probably up.More chaos and gridlock in Washington will get the soup cooking.Just my humble thoughts.

    • H D says:

      learned, CL did sell off almost exactly $3 from recent high into the news. 54.34-51.22 This product is news sensitive IMO. Think some got caught shorting the hole though.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Oil inventories are open to interpretation, and gasoline being down was recognized as positive.
      Oil is in a bullish band 50-60 with UCO suggesting 27…..
      Everything is as I mentioned on Friday during the day…

  12. phil1247 says:


    short squeeze gaining momentum

    rally to mid feb on track as mentioned last week

    no more shorting till next week

    holding my 10% short via TBT
    waiting to add more as bonds squeeze up to higher targets

  13. scottycj1 says:

    Could not close the daily gap from last week—whose target is 2385…..looks like CIT Low today.

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing WPP @ 228.40
    5up 3down @ WPP, No 5% correction anytime soon? #Frustration
    GL All

  15. Pisani gave the AAII survey of bullish investors.65% bulls–highest since 2005,15% bears ,lowest in 2 years.

  16. gary61b says:

    es a break of 2284 could slide very quickly to 2276.

    • gary61b says:

      maybe a pop at 2278 level then will start looking for a pos div. on 60min. at or near 2276.50…. just texting outloud….

  17. phil1247 says:


    took another look at /CL

    looks like we are finally in extension shorts

    took small short at 51.91 via SCO at 34.44

    target 50.85

  18. phil1247 says:


    anyone want to guess where we were at 8am??

    correct …….2285.. test test test that extension long

  19. phil1247 says:


    in extension longs

    thru 1237 target

    1247 target is next

  20. Sethu N says:

    Can anyone please tell me when is the appeal court’s order on POTUS travel ban. I think that will decide the future course of markets. There is too much euphoria right now which calls for a pull back. Sometimes we need to go beyond technicals and exercise caution

    • fionamargaret says:

      A ruling is expected within days.
      The appeals court could deny the government’s request for a stay, and return the case to the lower court for additional argument or in the case of a more sweeping ruling, an appeal to the Supreme Court by the losing side is expected.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Good thinking Seth, don’t forget that the market is forward looking. It looks like our ‘C’ wave down has begun. ES is showing a 1-2 down. I took a small starting position with calls on SDS yesterday. Will add as this accelerates. ES2295 finished the 5 wave c of B in my count.

  21. Hugh Jazole says:

    • Going to war…with anyone in particular?For what reason?I wouldn’t consider a visit by Israel and the US to Iran’s nuclear facility,war.Now Russia/US–yes,that’s war,but why would either country want it?What’s the point?

  22. stormchaser80 says:

    SPX did not make a new high today with negative divergences still holding at the 1/26 peak. The hourly chart put in strong negative divergences at today’s highs, with a downtrend now underway. Expecting another lower low with a lack of positive divergences on the hourly chart. $VIX continues in a short uptrend, but with a lack of negative divergences at today’s peak, a higher high is expected.

    Oil and HYG:IEF had awful days finishing at the lower Bollinger Band and 50 dma respectively. Would not be surprised to see a bounce here shortly, however with a lack of positive divergences it would be short lived before the downtrend continues.

    McClellan had a lower low than yesterday, but my proprietary Technicals Model was stronger. Due to my model, I suspect we are not yet done with stabs higher. Could see one resume tomorrow afternoon or Thursday after a weak open.

    My legacy LONG signal remains ‘YES’. It is not uncommon for any technical indicator to go positive after a prolonged negative period at the end of a long run higher.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

    • I’m just guessing,but I assume Kimball’s gold to SPX ratio chart broke out in golds favor.Anyways,I saw some charts on Goldtadise that looked very bullish for TLT,unless it breaks a bottom channel line around 115-on a monthly basis.A bounce to the top channel would be looking at 160.No one is thinking that as of now.See you all tomorrow.

    • jamhas26 says:

      Hi FM,

      There seems to be a lot of information out there on the internet about the current extreme COT positioning on Crude Oil and how this is extremely bearish.

      Is it possible that this could make it bullish?

      Guess we will know very soon!

    • fionamargaret says:

  23. Here’s some excitement:
    “API reported a shockingly massive 14.27 mm barrel build(2.5mm exp). This is the 2nd largest weekly build in US history. The reaction in WTI and RBOB futures was immediately obvious as the former plunged below $52 and the latter below $1.4750”

  24. Kisshu2 says:

    Tony what were the questions/predictions from the swarm session survey today?

  25. torehund says:

    US strengthening on the Dudo-meter and today the USD followed suit….
    Seasonality soon turning strong (the early February is the gloomy time for mankind), Christmas memories wearing thin and still a bit to go before spring emerges.
    Tony running the best stock-blog around, and what a crew he has 🙂

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. This UNU could as idiotic than clever. Need to work out the moderator side and be much more focused. I suggest to UNU once for the topic and the related questions choice and than UNU once for the brainer session. Like this night is a waste of time.

    • tony caldaro says:

      did you take the survey
      there were random questions from participants before 5PM
      then only the questions in the survey for the next 15 minutes
      after that anyone could ask questions

  28. Mr C,a while back I asked you about consumer credit dropping sharply and you said “don’t worry until it…”
    Drops like today…or not?What was your criteria for viewing it as a warning signal?

    • tony caldaro says:

      people do most of their spending in December
      they must have had loads of cash
      Jan and Feb are usually contractions spending months
      March will be the next important report

  29. llerias7 says:

    Tony, can you clarify the chart (weekly) for NFLX…in my reading the stock is in minor 3 of Int.III of Major 3 of P5…is that it?
    Several other chartists (EW) are looking for a final move i.e. major 5 top near $175…
    Shall see…

  30. kvilia says:

    Such a boring market – even gold is not moving anywhere. All cash, ready to go skiing.

  31. Impossible to enter UNU. Said room full filled to capacity try other time.

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