Monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation pullback, DOW -19

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below Friday’s SPX 2297 close. The market then bounced to SPX 2296 by 10:30 before heading lower. At 1:30 the market hit SPX 2289, then bounced into the close to end at 2293.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ was mixed. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude lost 70 cents, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Tomorrow: trade deficit at 8:30, then consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 2289, then closed at 2293. Not much movement off of Friday’s SPX 2298 hit. But the negative divergence did kick-in although momentum only retraced to neutral. Not much change on the info posted over the weekend. SPX 2267 and SPX 2305 still loom as the important levels. Short term support is at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2301 and the 2321 pivot. Best to your Tuesday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

92 Responses to Monday update

  1. gary61b says:

    es 2284.5 will it be the next support level for a long….. or is this B done.

    • Dex T says:

      That article is completely misleading! I want to see the data set from which their conclusions are drawn because I’ve seen other reports showing the exact opposite.

      1) They note that they went back to 1990 yet the graph only shows data from 2007 (??)

      2) The time point they reference is 1 year – however that does not mean that there are not short term declines and corrections which has caused the vix to shoot up

      There has been at least 1 correction every year since the start of the bull- The Vix has exploded each time this has occurred- 2010, 2011,2012, 2013…etc…

      Another shitty report from surprise, surprise citigroup-

    • I think this is emblematic of the kind of statements that get made as bull markets reach their peak – or go on for longer than expected. It’s just another way of saying “it’s different this time”, “the old rules no longer apply”, etc. Kind of like when people have said recently that “earnings don’t matter anymore” or “fundamentals don’t matter anymore”. Euphoria is starting to show. Sure, there’s still some more room to go up from here, but…after 8 years, what do you expect?

  2. scottycj1 says:

    I have tomorrow Feb 8th as a ST Cit…likely an acceleration higher point.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      There is moon activity this weekend I think Scotty. I see the 10th as a turn. Normally OPEX is up but if we hold up here into the date (or rather it’s choppy) then I am a seller.

  3. Page says:

    Last time when Tom McClellan was on CNBC, he made call for the correction (4-7%) to start on Feb 9, may be that’s why market is nervous and can’t stay up. CNBC said they will call him back on Feb 9.

  4. This Market need to flash the loo. 😦

  5. phil1247 says:

    extension long 2285 /esh7

    test test and test again

  6. phil1247 says:


    next target 25.70

    selling all there

  7. blackjak100 says:

    NAZ & DOW new ATH, but not $SPX…smells like a b wave top of some degree

  8. phil1247 says:


    big picture.. dont worry about details here

    first wedge target has been met with collapse to recent low
    now a rally to possibly 130
    before the next bigger wedge target at 101 is hit

  9. Are anyone now seeing the ED ? It is not Algoable. Simply they will not work

  10. phil1247 says:


    at target and resistance

    added TBT

    now 10% short bonds

  11. Atlanta GDP drops to 2.7 from 3.4.

  12. Bud Fox says:

    Comments requested on Sears SHLD….long term investment thought…

  13. Remarkable,dollar up and gold up slightly.Question:Is DXY making a legitimate identifiable right shoulder up to 101ish?Then a break of 99.40 to 96.

    • phil1247 says:

      not remarkable

      gold needs to rally in the face of rising dollar
      to show it has sniffed out dollar peak

  14. phil1247 says:


    1241 next target …….sniff sniff ………….. 🙂

  15. purplember says:

    Phil / others any thoughts on Oil

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing WR1 @ 229.64 > WR2 @ 230.40
    Continued failure at WR1 then WS1?
    GL All

  17. phil1247 says:

    /es must burst upwards now

    my stop is pennies below here 🙂

    • phil1247 says:

      stop held
      not buying more until i see what happens at /es 2297

      • gary61b says:

        ES has unfinished business at the 2295 level that came about after it was up there this morning. So it will revisit that level, double tops, second touches… will see if that holds for top. If es drops from that level a neg, div. will be present. on 60min

    • CampFreddie says:

      “Pedogate” will be labeled fake news.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      IF this is true then this would be a serious start in terms of Washington gaining back the trust of the public.

      • tommyboys says:

        Should would appear “swampy” on the past 8 year admiin. This came up during election as well and was determined “fake news”…

    • purplember says:

      NEWBIE, i’m VERY VERY familiar with the Johnny Gosch story. Des Moines kid that was kidnapped decades ago. His mom has met him a couple of times in secret and claims he’s still alive.

      Bottomline: claim is Johnny has spend last 30 years in this pedophile ring. They’d video tape powerful people having sex with kids then use it as blackmail. Johnny’s mother has 1 quote from years ago that i’ll never forget “just because you don’t think something is true, doesn’t mean it isn’t”

    • fotis2 says:

      Scary stuff if proven true they should certainly feel the full brunt of the law.

  18. cj32 says:

  19. phil1247 says:


    extension long retested overnite and held

    now on to target 2297

    long SSO at open

  20. phil1247 says:


    short term cycles bottomed on time

    short squeeze in progress

    how gold reacts to surging dollar
    will tell a lot about where we are with gold

  21. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  22. scorp100 says:

    Hello Tony, when you get a chance can you please share your thoughts on NVDA?

  23. Ajay Singhi says:

    Alert: SPX may make one more high today.

  24. stormchaser80 says:

    The pullback that we talked about Friday is underway. McClellan has turned negative but my proprietary Technicals Model remains positive. SPX hourly chart suggests a lower low is needed to build up positive divergences before any leg higher can begin. VIX hourly chart needs a lower low to build up positive divergences. Today there was a bullish MACD cross on VIX, however it may be a false signal. Speaking of signals my legacy LONG signal went to YES. It is not uncommon for any technical indicator to go positive after a prolonged negative period at the end of a long run higher.

    Today I added an EMA to my Daily Technicals Model chart, along with a new indicator called Technicals Thrust (similar to Zweig Breadth Thrust) that you can read about in today’s post.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. A close below 2.37% breaks the neckline and calls for a correction to about 2.15%. A full technical correction could approach 2.03%.Declining trend line resistance from the highs of the head and right shoulder remain a level to watch to void the developing pattern. (As of February 6 it is 2.5325% and declines .0030 each trading day)

    B of A had some technicals today.Looks bullish for gold ultimately.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD at

  27. Caw Caw!Quite the run on GDX.Now it’s simple (lol).Either this was a bear market rally up to the top black crow (40%),or the continuation of whatever started last year.Bull or bear?Let the market tell us.I took more profit today so I can sit back and see if a 98 RSI on the 30 min and 87 on the daily can get worked off at this very logical point.A break over that crow would forecast a run back to 31+.Of course logic has a way of being ignored by the markets,overwhelmed by momentum.So we’ll see how it goes tomorrow.Good luck all.

    • kvilia says:

      Out as well, learned. I think quite a few folks picked up on gold recently, so I’m glad they did as a) we made money and b) I was not playing against the trend 🙂

      Hope for retracement, surely there will be another entry in the gold bull.

Comments are closed.