Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +187

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported higher: 227K v 156K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2291 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2281 yesterday. At 10am factory orders were reported higher: 1.3% v -2.4%, and ISM services was reported lower: 56.5 v 57.2. The rally continued to just past 11am when the SPX hit 2298. Then the market went into a 4 points tight trading range for the rest of the day, before closing at SPS 2297.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold ticked up $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2286 and 2270 pivots again, with resistance at the 2321 and 2336 pivots. Today the WLEI was lowered to 61.8% v 61.9%, and this week Q1 GDP was estimated at 3.4% v 2.3%.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time in three days. This gap up was not sold off minutes after the open like the one on Wednesday. It kept on rising, consolidated, and then closed near the high. Still no resolution breakout/breakdown of the two SPX levels: 2267 and 2301. Monday’s another day. Reviewing all the charts in preparation for the weekend report. Best to you and yours this weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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14 Responses to Friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Weekly GOLD and $/YEN Support and Resistance

  2. Can’t wait for your weekend update tony. I shorted the close, which I think was dumb. I have been saying I’m expecting 2308 -2320 to end either the bull market or Int 3.

    • You maybe rewarded, there is SPX negative RSI divergence on the daily, hourly and 15min bars, we also got a sell signal on a Bearish Gartley pattern which started from the ATH, my best guess is we get at least a gap fill of 15+ points next week before any further advance…

    • Richard Glackin says:

      I doubt you’ll regret that as, we still need a ‘C’ wave down before we continue the March upward.

  3. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Tom McClellan

    Thanks Tony, and everyone xx

  4. Thanks Tony. It felt odd taking a substantial long after a pullback to ES 2283 but it was pretty clear what was happening and I smelled naphtha kerosene. In the recent past, a strong dollar (particularly against the yen) was a mark of risk on. Today, the dollar was weaker and the only visible catalyst was a decline in VIX along with gobs of buying. So, the rules have changed and there has been a breakdown in inter market correlations. On the four hour candles there are two or more double tops in the 2288 area, close to the days high. The real tests will be at 2299, 2301 and, of course 2305. I incorrectly said, based upon charts, we may have put in a top at 2301. Because my 30 min and daily were in conflict, i redrew the daily to conform to to the 30 min and there now appears ample space to the upside in chart terms. The black line in the accompanying chart has stopped many advances but there are few guarantees.

  5. Thanks Tony. Have a nice evening.

  6. torehund says:

    Early weekend always rise markets , the torehund rule

  7. kvilia says:

    Thanks Tony – good weekend. Can we be friends? Gold and SPX:

  8. 123 abc says:

    A revoke of the Dodd-Frank act, and in particular the Volcker rule, will see the return of proprietary trading —i.e. more quants and HFT/algo bots!

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