Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open choppy day, DOW -6

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but ended mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 246K v 260K. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2280 close, ticked down to 2272 in the opening minutes, and then started to rally. By 11am the SPX had turned positive reaching 2284. After that the market dropped to SPX 2275, and then bounced to end the day at 2281.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds slipped 1 tick, Crude dipped 10 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 205K) at 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.

The market opened lower today, hit yesterday’s SPX 2272 low, then rallied to 2284. After that it stayed within a tighter range, with choppy action, for the rest of the day. The last two days activity was good for day traders, but does nothing to advance the short term count in either direction. Still see SPX 2267 and SPX 2301 as key levels in both directions. For the uptrend to roll over into a downtrend it must first break that low, and for it to extend it must first break that high. Short term support is at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2257, with resistance at the 2286 pivot and SPX 2301. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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111 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Good 1 Newbie !

  2. phil1247 says:

    Squeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzeeee those shorts !!!!

  3. NEWBIE says:

    Enough is enough people. I have held my tongue too long, but it’s time to say something. I have seen a lot of hate spewed on social media in recent days about a man who is a winner and overachiever, and that’s what the people who support him like about him. Yes, he has been caught in some lies and maybe twisted the truth a little but he is still out there proving his haters wrong time after time! Some people are just jealous of someone who is successful and has money. Throw in a hot foreign model at his side and they hate even more. You may not have wanted him in his role, but he is there now and there is nothing you can do about it. I know it is just going to get worse over the next several days, but like it or not, Tom Brady is in the Super Bowl!!! 🙂

  4. phil1247 says:



  5. tommyboys says:

    AD busting new highs today…this is the REAL market speaking…

  6. phil1247 says:


    resistance is at 2297

    this resistance existed before it was even traded last week

    how could that be ???

    anyone ? bueller?

  7. Page says:

    Atlanta Falcons will win the Super Bowl. Sorry Patriots fans not this year 🙂

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Then there some that are shorting like the markets going to crash. LORD A MERCY!!

    • mcgcapital says:

      Are you long Vive? Seriously thinking about just day trading the next 0.5% move as looking for 3-5% is painful in this range

      • vivelaamo says:

        I went long DOW RUT and SPX earlier in week. Don’t feel comfortable adding here though. Will probably close most positions end of today and see what next week brings. There could be a pb still but all dips are for buying IMO.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Commodities are at a low…..check out the symbols I have down below….if commodities go up, then a whole lot of different stocks go up – miners and resource- based stocks.
      If you think we are going to crash and burn, stick to the pure commodities….everything becomes scarce ……and valuable.

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Everyone so desperate for a pb they will miss the boat.

  10. H D says:

    227K Jobs! USA! (est. 205K) maybe 22K fact checking jobs created? Thought we were going to see a “bowling green massacre” with 42% unemployment this morning… When are they going to change the formula?

    Range 2,287.88 – 2,298.16 10 HanDles

  11. kvilia says:

    /GC – looking strong

    Have a good weekend all.

  12. phil1247 says:


    looks like new lows ahead

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Looks like $SPX is heading for its 3rd inside week in 4 weeks. I’m not sure that has ever happened. My bet is it will not be 4 out of 5 and 2267 will be taken out next week despite close probably being closer to 2301.

  14. phil1247 says:

    aggressive ext long failing

    lets see if /esh7 2286 supports…
    .ie less agg extension long .50 level

  15. mcgcapital says:

    Added to my FTSE shorts here at 7200. Dreadful market to swing trade so just looking for a move back towards 7130. Still short from 7300s and will be out both positions at 7215ish.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have EURL just breaking out….to 33.
      JPNL has a bunch of upside….and maybe look at RUSL….

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WS1 to WR1 @ 229.68
    WPP Play complete. 😉
    GL & Good Weekend All

  17. gary61b says:

    now pull back to 2288 level for a neg. div. at 93-95 level. or not.

  18. phil1247 says:


    raised stops on SSO

    looking to add more if i can get it in good !

  19. vivelaamo says:

    I take it this is in the script? Dow will close the gap first.

  20. blackjak100 says:

    Now need a close below 2289.

  21. phil1247 says:

    sold SSO 79.48 on nfp spike

    out of all longs

  22. Managed to pry my eyelids open so I could watch the NFP live this morning.Looked up Bulkowski’s take on “bearish dojis” and he rated it,not as bearish indicator,but a continuation play 69% of the time.So we’ll see how DXY fares post jobs #.I sold some GDX yesterday,because the dollar was acting fishy,not the doji.

    • “And, if the GDX is able to rally over 23.35, with follow through over 24, that would put an even more bullish spin on the complex, and you can move your stops on longs to just under 23 at that time. A further move through the 1.00 extension off the lows of 24.50 should have us on target to head to the 28-30 region for wave 1 of iii.”
      –Avi playbook on GDX.
      Dollar friendly NFP.GDX definitely made his numbers(24.98 high) this week to qualify for his 28-30 projections.Busy day for me,see you all tonight.

      • Congrats on staying strong with GDX, learned. Bearish rally or not, I’m liking the turnout thus far.

        I’ve dropped my theory on closing minute volume spikes as I’ve concluded they are likely bots executing those high volume trades to balance/swap instruments at the close. Would’ve made about the same just holding JNUG from 3.86 vs scalping this entire time 😛

        /gc 1235 will be an interesting level to watch.

      • kvilia says:

        NUGT breaks through 13, which I think it will, it storms to 16. That should coincide with GC1240 level, so I will take longs off there for sure and wait to see what happens after that. Tried to warn Freddie…

        • fionamargaret says:

          NUGT is still 19, and JNUG 12…….UVXY is a buy at 21…..

          • fionamargaret says:

            JNUG should read 14, and USLV 18.5…

            • fionamargaret says:

              UGAZ down to 12, but I would check at 20 first……maybe double bottom….
              UCO is still 27….

              • fionamargaret says:

                DBC… 19.5
                DBP….just turned up….could almost double…, silver and treasury bills…safer
                DBA is at the bottom of its numbers…..will turn up soon….
                Reflationary trade for just now……depression plays later……

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Learned for all the work you do……we will get those crows….the plump one needs to go running…..

  23. blackjak100 says:

    I know futes are slightly green, but it’s NFP day. This count is possible…

    A = 2301-2267 (5 down)
    B = 2267-2281 (triangle)
    C = 2281-55? = 2226?

    Obviously, would need NFP to sink futes in a couple of hrs.

  24. Better to prepare at the idea of a soon starting Primary 4 when the Major ED 5 of Primary 3 will end. It could be the start of few year of uncertainty and behavioural Market accompanying the first 4 years of Trump presidency, I am afraid.
    Looking to take advantage of the wave A of the upcoming 4th, since the B will be a long disaster.
    For now, tracking closely the end of this ED.

    • kingfrogcash says:

      coming up on 3 months since the election and the market is near it’s all time highs and VIX near it’s lows. I guess the anti-Trump crowd can keep making those “The End Is Near” posters boards since it can’t get any better, right!
      $BAC Feb03 23.5 Call Buyer +30k for $0.06 opencrier 2/1
      $BAC Apr 24 Call Buyers +10k for mostly $0.71 opencrier 2/1

  25. joecthetruthteller says:

    I have been pondering how to enter a position using bolinger babds like shown here

    Seems to me a trailing stop to enter would work most of the time, but the point of control identified by volume profile might work better.

    Can you set your charts to bolinger 2,14 ?
    Can you set your charts to volume profile or market profile ?

    Any thoughts?

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes, of course you can set the BB to whatever settings you want. The importance of any indicator is that other participants recognize its value as well. The value of a close outside followed by inside is that it does not occur that often, at least on a daily chart.

    • micky says:

      Joe, I doubt that guy makes money trading. He sounds like a good salesman though. I use Bollinger bands all the time. I stick with a standard 20 or 21 Bollinger as one has to take volatility into account, but I use a 1 and a 2 std deviation. If price stays above the one dev channel there is no reason to get out of the trade. You can decide for yourself how you want to trade it. It can be used on all timeframes. If it was going up and the channel is taken out to the down side there is a chance the trend may be changing. The same applies in a downtrend. Checkout the daily BB 1 dev of es, it has not broken the 1 dev channel yet.

  26. A couple charts.GDX,btw had a bearish doji.

  27. So the B wave option is we are in a C up, to finish at 2290 or 2300 then drop for minute 2 then resume minute 3

    2major bear options have approx same ending. An ending diagonal targets 2320 ish and B to end all can not exceed 2336.

    Any corrections on the above.

    A few time frames I use are pointing to a high between 2-3 and 2-8. I expect a little more then a 5 percent pull back to 2180 area, re access then. Would a pull back that far in Elliot wave terms be considered Int 4? A pull back under 2083 would also mean the bull market is probably over.

    Thanks enjoy fed day, I’m sure it will be a volatile day. Not sure many want to be long over the weekend, but we shall see, maybe we squeeze and close at the highs, either way should be fun

  28. Thanks Tony. Here is my take on what is taking place on a daily basis and as you can see a top MAY be in but (1) it can take days to react or (2) it can creep higher beneath the line as it did in July. Based upon a casual inspection of tops that lead to corrections, most are distinguished by repetition of the same high but I like your guidance as well regarding 2301 and 2267. If my chart is correct, we should see a drop of 100 to 130 points depending upon the slope of the descent.

  29. End of day,I cut back some on GDX,strictly because the dollar didn’t fall apart like it should have.May regret it (for 10 seconds),but just thought I’d pass the move along.Actually this is within 5% of my target anyways,so what the heck.Will still profit on a crappy employment number,just not as much..Good luck all.

  30. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Bull/bear squiggles (chart 1) and potential EDT tracking (chart 2).

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