Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW +27

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 246K v 153K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2287, ticked up to 2289, and then began to pullback. At 10am ISM was reported higher: 56.0 v 54.7, and construction spending was reported lower: -0.2% v 0.9%. The market continued to pullback until just before noon, when the SPX hit 2272. As the market tried for another afternoon rally the FED: At 2:30 the SPX hit 2282, pulled back to 2275 by 3pm, then bounced to close at 2280.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rose 75 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open today. But unlike last week’s gap up opening to new highs, this one failed to last more than 10 minutes before it was sold off and the gap was closed. Today’s activity offers another opportunity for choppy corrective ongoing activity, and a potential correction. As a result we are raising the downtrend/uptrend threshold to yesterday’s SPX 2267 low, from 2257. Should the market break SPX 2267 we are probably in a downtrend, along with the R2K. Should it hold and start making higher highs, the uptrend continues. Short term support is at the 2270 pivot andΒ SPX 2257, with resistance at the 2286 pivot and SPX 2301. Short term momentum hit overbought after yesterday’s positive divergence, then declined to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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109 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    DJTI chart;
    Displays, further the short term topping pattern. Suspect, a hard correction
    lies ahead….enoffcid

  2. NEWBIE says:

    Its time to eat.

  3. captbara says:

    Short gold 1224. Dollar is at the brink, but I’m not so sure it’s ready to die here just yet.

  4. I’m totally fixated on why,when the DXY breaks a H&S,it will not decline like its supposed to.Does it go back up to build a clear right shoulder?Or what?So short term,you have to think the dollar doesn’t go lower here.Another thing to wait for.Later.

  5. torehund says:

    This is so boring count-wise that i just have to throw in the towel, early weekend for me πŸ™‚
    Happy weekend toTony and all contributors and readers, bulls and bears.

  6. H D says:

    2017 and the 2270 Pivot!

  7. phil1247 says:

    long 2277 spx

  8. SPYtrader says:

    Is Phil a bot?…lol…. he is a trading machine!!

  9. Everything from here on out today is position squaring for Jobs #s tomorrow.Profit taking,whatever you want to call it.Not too stupid,actually,very short term.

  10. phil1247 says:


    this is why i dont hang around when the ext long fails

    yes /gc support is 1210 but what if if doesnt hold ..then what?

    if the extension shall fail ……..
    you most certainly should bail…………… πŸ™‚

  11. phil1247 says:

    SHORT bonds

    probably early with TBT but want to start building short position now

  12. wildmarkets says:

    Correction is over. Buy But Buy!

  13. Dex T says:

    Jack Sparrow- RE U.S. economy

    Because many of the international relationships the U.S. has cultivated are fairly worthless- we give out FAR more than we actually get in return. There are only a few countries the U.S. needs to deal with/cultivate- the EU, Russia, Japan and China- the rest are of little importance or significance

  14. Woke up and saw gold made the big move over 1220 and thought equities would be down 300 dow points.Not yet…lol.Still,good to see another barrier erased on gold charts.1250 should be next and THAT is end of my PO–also 25.50-.60 on GdX.The +div on the weekly GDX signaled 40% up to the potential of the top of the 3rd black crow. (25.60)Getting above that unleashes more upside,but I can’t say that will happen from here.Others do.I’ll go to full cash between 25.25 and 25.50 and wait to see what happens.Good luck all.

  15. phil1247 says:


    extension long failed

    kvilia .. now what ???

    • kvilia says:

      Change your chart settings πŸ™‚ GC IS in extensions long with line in the sand at 1210. Not interested in chase every small move. Target is 1240-1250 unless we break below 1210, then will have to re-evaluate.

      • phil1247 says:


        the 1210 is a traditional

        the extension failed

        go look at the video again

        • phil1247 says:


          i didnt even look at the video until you posted because it seemed you were wrong but i wanted to see what DH said

        • kvilia says:

          Yes, Phil, you are correct. I meant to say traditional but was doing several things at a time. As I said, I’m mostly concerned with major levels of support, so even if extensions long fail I’m OK with that as long as we dont violate traditional. I have a first job, you know πŸ™‚
          GTO – great chart again. Indeed the target is 1237, then we’ll see πŸ™‚

          • phil1247 says:

            no problem kvilia

            i dont want any drawdown so im happy to buy and sell rapidly

            since i dont pay commissions

            i can put stop in very tight

            • kvilia says:

              This way you definitely have more control – our personal specifics dictate trading style. Any way, I appreciate a lot your reports – good luck and thank you.

              • phil1247 says:

                welcome kvilia ….

       long have you been with DH?

              • kvilia says:

                Few months, perhaps since Oct-Nov. I actually don’t have time to learn deep and watch every minute, sometimes I’m only checking markets few times a day. I rely on quickly checking the webinar, and that helps tremendously – have to let DH do his drawings πŸ™‚ This guy is amazing, real passionate and honest. I have a lot of respect for him.

            • phil1247 says:

              DH is very good

              but you have to rely on yourself
              sometimes he pulls stuff out of his rectum that i just ignore

              another thing about him to watch is his bias and correlation fetish

              you know how i feel about correlations
              if you listened to him during the bond collapse
              he kept saying stocks have to go down so bonds have to go up

              he had his head handed to him in bonds
              if you listened to him you got killed

              • kvilia says:

                True, nobody is perfect. He is still hung up on the end of cycle market crash. However he reiterates the importance of extensions and traditionals for immediate support/resistance levels he draws. It’s always important to trade what’s in front of you and not dwell on big theories.

  16. phil1247 says:

    /ZB …. TLT

    looking for more bond rally into early feb

    want to get shorts back on via TBT

    dont think the initial impulse down in bonds is over yet.

    SHORT of a lifetime in the works here

  17. phil1247 says:

    2264 target hit

    bounced up to next 15 min short entry which traded

    next target 2261

    • phil1247 says:

      bigger picture

      SHORT from /ESH7 high calls for a target of 2253

      which would retest the .50 level of the traditional long
      for a 4th time at 2252.5

  18. phil1247 says:


    1226 target hit

    in ext longs now but dipped in

    took profits on GLD now at 116.45

    will rebuy later when i can put a stop in


    tried to warn you about gold………… πŸ™‚

    • phil1247 says:

      sold SLV at 16.74 premarket
      still like silver better than gold

    • kvilia says:

      But but but … you also tried to warn me about NUGT. No?
      On the serious note, GC is going to go in extensions for the next few days – no traditionals.

      • phil1247 says:

        i dont predict

        i only report facts

        not interested in nugt

        just concentrating on metal
        not 30 stocks that can still go bankrupt with 2000 dollar gold

  19. kvilia says:

    GC exploded overnight – as I keep saying, there is nothing that holds until 1240 – 1250 area, 1224 now.

  20. kvilia says:

    DRYS got perfectly to first GTO target – exceptional call, GTO! Now, will it get to your second target? πŸ™‚

  21. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony.Stopped out $/yen and short on gold looks like it will be stopped today Ira was right bout that bear trap bookmark that vid for future ref.

  22. Jack Sparrow says:

    this is not a political post but just trying to be objective here… do we convince ourselvesthatit will be great years for economy (or the big wave 3) when in 10 days, we have entered into acrimonious interaction with mexico, china, muslim countries, iran (put them on notice today), Australia all this is in first two weeks…And its just a start. Is our economy big enough that we can thrive within ourselves…i can see the case for wave 5 about to end (if already not there)…

    • Here’s a less bullish scenario,but still take GLD to 130.That’s it for today.

      • Found it in my Google news file…not my chart or analysis….lol.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Still nice charts. USLV broke out today, and GDP is plugging along…gold+silver+ treasuries….different. I don’t know if you watch/listen to the classical music, but Bartok might sound discordant to you….just a different structure of notes we are not used to.
          The futures are looking better…..and I thought this was a Scottish song…

  23. stormchaser80 says:

    Both the McClellan and my proprietary Technicals Model both weakened noticeably today. SPX hourly has yet to show its hand, but if I had to guess I would think a low lower than today will develop tonight, before SPX reverses higher tomorrow. Remember though, we have been noting many different indicators and techniques which point to a market that may be breaking down. For the bulls, I would be careful. Not ruling out some gains, but they would likely be nominal before a hard reverse. At the same time, bears need to wait for a better entry point or more obvious clues in the short term charts. For the second day in a row, my signals suggest being Neutral is the way to be right now.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  24. kvilia says:

    Not a smooth move selling NUGT at 10.92 and buying again at 11.22 but – GC is flying at 1216, so really no resistance until 1240-1250 area.

  25. Did the VIX drop to 9.97 today?

  26. I think that 2257 is a more reasonable “line in the sand” that 2267. 2257 represents an actual support leveled while, on the other hand, 2267 seems arbitrary.

  27. blackjak100 says:

    B wave count courtesy of NK. This is my preferred count

  28. joecthetruthteller says:

    Volume is high on up days and low on down days so market will remain in an uptrend until that relation reverses

  29. torehund says:

    Fresh rumors of data crash in Swedebank in Sweden MalmΓΈ, accordingly you can withdraw unlimited cash regardless of deposit status. This even beats Bernies Helicopter money πŸ™‚ What a fatfinger for the common man, enjoy it as long as the going gets good. And Thanks Tony for sturdiness in these crazy times.

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at

  31. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    Today’s bounce in SPX is capped at the potential island reversal resistance. The bearish reversal and bullish EDTs remain on the table. See Chart 1 (ES, bearish), Chart 2 & Chart 3(EDT, bullish).

  32. 123 abc says:

    Great guidance in regards to 2267, much appreciated Tony et OEW team. Three days of 2270-2286 pivot pong thus far, expecting breakout by NFP.

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