Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -123

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures gapped down at the open overnight in response to the backlash by the public, politicians, and prominent CEOs, to the temporary travel ban imposed by the POTUS Friday night. At 8:30 personal income (0.3% v 0.0%)/spending (0.5% v 0.2%) was reported higher, as well as, the PCE: 0.1% v 0.0.%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2284 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 2295 on Friday. At 11am the SPX hit 2268 and then tried to rally. The rise continued throughout the day and the SPX closed at 2281.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude slid 50 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance again at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since November 9th – the day after Election day. Is the Trump uptrend over? After a quick slide down to SPX 2268 the market seemed to stabilize, and then drifted higher for the rest of the day. With the market declining sharply today, after failing to break through the SPX 2305 level, a potential C wave is underway. If SPX 2301 was the end of a B wave high. If it was not, then the market should remain above SPX 2257, and rebound higher in the coming days and weeks. SPX 2257 looks like a key uptrend continuation/downtrend underway level. Short term support is at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2257, with resistance at the 2286 pivot and SPX 2301. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this morning at today’s low, then rebounded to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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133 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Pfizer Missed
    Exxon Missed
    UPS Missed
    MasterCard Missed

    what more needs to be said. Doesn’t matter


    • I think this is yet another case of ‘fundamentals don’t matter, until they do’…in addition to ‘the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.’


  2. vivelaamo says:

    Question? Why do ‘technical analysts’ start calling drops like 1500 during a clear uptrend. It took me years to understand how much the trend is your friend so when I see these calls it really baffles me how people are still acting this way.


  3. phil1247 says:

    ready to bail out of ddm


  4. captbara says:

    NYMO is recovering too much for the buy signal setup. Too bad.

    Successful bounce again off yesterday’s TL, but now it looks like a possible 5w down.


  5. scottycj1 says:

    A little higher and they will have doubled for the day…..



  6. A part all possible comments, unfortunately what I see is: From the db. bottom at 1809 from Feb. 2016 SPX the evolution has taken the shape of an E.D.
    So, I risk to say it has been all the Major 5 of Primary 3 and it is on his final stage. Observing well the daily it make it more clear. It was not a B or a 3-3-3, is just and ED at the very end.


  7. scottycj1 says:

    This morning I posted

    scottycj1 says:

    January 31, 2017 at 9:27 am
    Bought some Rut calls on the dip…….looking for a low today —tomorrow

    Those calls are up 38% so far….Rut is up 2.20 while the Dow is down 160



  8. micky says:

    As I did not get a medium term sell signal yet I am quite happy trading the long side, whatever the correct count may be.


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