Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -123

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures gapped down at the open overnight in response to the backlash by the public, politicians, and prominent CEOs, to the temporary travel ban imposed by the POTUS Friday night. At 8:30 personal income (0.3% v 0.0%)/spending (0.5% v 0.2%) was reported higher, as well as, the PCE: 0.1% v 0.0.%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2284 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 2295 on Friday. At 11am the SPX hit 2268 and then tried to rally. The rise continued throughout the day and the SPX closed at 2281.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude slid 50 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance again at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since November 9th – the day after Election day. Is the Trump uptrend over? After a quick slide down to SPX 2268 the market seemed to stabilize, and then drifted higher for the rest of the day. With the market declining sharply today, after failing to break through the SPX 2305 level, a potential C wave is underway. If SPX 2301 was the end of a B wave high. If it was not, then the market should remain above SPX 2257, and rebound higher in the coming days and weeks. SPX 2257 looks like a key uptrend continuation/downtrend underway level. Short term support is at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2257, with resistance at the 2286 pivot and SPX 2301. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this morning at today’s low, then rebounded to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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133 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Pfizer Missed
    Exxon Missed
    UPS Missed
    MasterCard Missed

    what more needs to be said. Doesn’t matter

    • I think this is yet another case of ‘fundamentals don’t matter, until they do’…in addition to ‘the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.’

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Question? Why do ‘technical analysts’ start calling drops like 1500 during a clear uptrend. It took me years to understand how much the trend is your friend so when I see these calls it really baffles me how people are still acting this way.

  3. phil1247 says:

    ready to bail out of ddm

  4. captbara says:

    NYMO is recovering too much for the buy signal setup. Too bad.

    Successful bounce again off yesterday’s TL, but now it looks like a possible 5w down.

  5. scottycj1 says:

    A little higher and they will have doubled for the day…..


  6. A part all possible comments, unfortunately what I see is: From the db. bottom at 1809 from Feb. 2016 SPX the evolution has taken the shape of an E.D.
    So, I risk to say it has been all the Major 5 of Primary 3 and it is on his final stage. Observing well the daily it make it more clear. It was not a B or a 3-3-3, is just and ED at the very end.

  7. scottycj1 says:

    This morning I posted

    scottycj1 says:

    January 31, 2017 at 9:27 am
    Bought some Rut calls on the dip…….looking for a low today —tomorrow

    Those calls are up 38% so far….Rut is up 2.20 while the Dow is down 160


  8. micky says:

    As I did not get a medium term sell signal yet I am quite happy trading the long side, whatever the correct count may be.

  9. I made the point yesterday that the Thorson chart(and bearish prediction)would turn bullish,by not acting bearish–after dropping below the 10d.All the previous examples led to quick drops,as the chart on the weekend showed.By not cratering and in fact rallying,has to be considered encouraging for further gains.Now GDX has to keep rallying.DXY dropping below 99.40 would hopefully begin a technical drop to 96.That would take gold over 1220 and on its way to higher targets.TLT probably must rally as well.Good luck all.

  10. Lee X says:

    I never knew gold traders were so sensitive , it is shiny and an excellent conductor I’ll give you that.

  11. scottycj1 says:

    Cant buy your count
    Rule is “Wave B in an expanded flat is sometimes 1.236 or 1.382 times the length of wave A”

    We were at 151% at 2301……

    • aahmichael says:

      That’s an observation of tendencies. It’s not a rule. If that was a rule, it wouldn’t use the words “is sometimes.” It would use the words “must be,” or “can never exceed,” etc.

    • Ajay Singhi says:

      Thanks Michael. You are right.

      Scotty, you will soon see. Just remember, all EDS end horribly, Before you can say WTF, we will be at 1990.

      Thanks for the feedback.


  12. Dex T says:

    “Fed Governor Lael Brainard, in a speech earlier this month at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., acknowledged Trump is likely to have some impact on the Fed’s decision-making process, if only because nobody really understands what the administration is up to yet.

    “It thus seems possible that monetary policy could be affected for some time by uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its effects on the economy,” Brainard said.”

  13. phil1247 says:


    tried to warn you yest about gold

    still 1217 is the key

  14. H D says:

    Last week I added DRYS to the radar. Some news and moves in progress this week.

  15. scottycj1 says:

    I’s be nervous if I was long Gold…….BIG Pos Divergence


    • kvilia says:

      You’ve been touting your horn for a few weeks now, yet gold is THE best performer since the beginning of the year. GC target is 1250. I am 100% cash now, looking for NUGT and XIV entries. XIV is tricky one, needs VIX spike. This one has done 300% in the last 6 months.

    • lcd00 says:

      scottycj1 says:
      January 26, 2017 at 10:07 am
      There is always a statistic or chart that can be found to support a traders bias.

      Does your comment seem annoying if it’s applied to one of your charts?
      And, no, I don’t think your chart is biased, just your general attitude as revealed by the majority of your posts.

      • scottycj1 says:

        You can take it for what you see….time will tell.

        Don’t forget who posted on Nov 3rd NOT TO BE SHORT.

        None of your comments bother me as I make money…..

        The only reason I come here is because there are some here who are always wrong. I use that to a very profitable advantage……..


    • CampFreddie says:

      Scotti – Agree.

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I listen to these morons talk about how awesome earnings or going to be……Been hearing that for more than two year

    Exxon UPS MasterCard Under Armor all dissapointing earnings and outlooks

    Chicago manufacturing almost at contractionary level (a strong dollar hurts? You don’t say)

    If there is no significant corporate tax reform there is no chance earnings are awesome. With a strong dollar rising rates and wage pressure along with poor productivity there IS NO CHANCE IN HELL earnings will exceed expectations. But no fear we can just keep pushing up valuations on the hope they will be awesome next year. Hell we can be in a recession or even a depression and sAy they will be awesome in the future and to keep buying. The sentiment and it’s utter separation from reality is why there is a bubble.

  17. scottycj1 says:

    Rut up on the day….calls profitable…..Rut might be a leader on the way up in the next leg

  18. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony. What level would you not want to see the DXY close under to remain a USD bull please? Thanks in advance. Alex

  19. phil1247 says:


    ext long support 19555 then 19400

    BARRONS DOW 30000 cover right on time !

    and ECONOMIST beefcake DOLLAR cover doomed ol bucky

  20. phil1247 says:

    /es ext short target 2257

  21. scottycj1 says:

    Bought some Rut calls on the dip…….looking for a low today —tomorrow

  22. captbara says:

    Another bounce off yesterday’s TL.

    NYMO crawled back above the BB at the close, let’s see if we get it under by EOD.

  23. llerias7 says:

    Tony, do you have a projection for the bottom of wave C ?

  24. kvilia says:

    Out of NUGT for now, quick 10% in 3 days.
    So I followed Ajay’s link and read this from Nadeem’s post: “However, Present Alt Trump has let it be known that there is a way around the ban that is through membership of one of his golf courses. Yes that’s right if you want to enter Trumps America then forget the Green card instead you will need a Trump Golf course membership card. In advance of the ban the Trump organisation doubled the membership initiation fees for its golf courses, for instance the Palm Beach Mar-a-Lago resort membership initiation fee has risen to $200,000 from $100,000 of barely a week ago.”

    I love internet and Ajay – good luck with your bear market.

  25. captbara says:

    Trump wants a low dollar? Is that correct?

  26. kvilia says:

    GC is in extensions long since bottoming 1185.6 – reiterating short term target – 1250.

  27. vivelaamo says:

    Ajay says we are in a bear market. Tony says we are in a bull. Both use a form of Elliot waves. Interesting times…

  28. soulsurfer says:

    thanks tony!

    my preferred count presented yesterday had to be changed today, after having tracked well for weeks. such is life; anticipated, monitor, adjust.

    I took a look at the $RUT, which has been impulsing beautifully, and it looks to me that index is now in intermediate iv or minor 4 depending on wave degree preference and should find support in low 1300s:

  29. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  30. dan pulford says:

    Thanks again Tony, whats your take on % favor of the C wave?

  31. dan pulford says:

    Newer Comments →
    phil1247 says:
    January 30, 2017 at 9:07 am
    stocks down
    gold and bonds not zooming?
    why ? dan pulford says:
    January 30, 2017 at 9:26 am
    Phil this is your answer for today, The Dow Jones news today is a projected decline in the index after Asian stocks fell and markets weighed an executive order by President Donald Trump placing travel restrictions on immigrants and refugees from seven nations.
    The order led to the detention and deportation of hundreds of travelers arriving at U.S. airports over the weekend. The story has ignited a number of legal challenges and concerns about the constitutionality of Trump’s executive order.
    On Friday, the Dow slipped seven points on news that Q4 GDP growth cooled and earnings reports failed to perform up to Wall Street analyst expectations.

  32. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony! Closed long Gold and short $/yen now ….Long $/yen stop 112.900 TP1 118.200 TP2 124.500.Short Gold stop 1220 TP1 1140 TP2 1070.

  33. Is this going to be a textbook H&S,ladies and gents?

  34. Trump fires obama holdover Yates.Gold reacts a little.See if it holds or gives back.If nothing else,Trump is not boring…lol.

  35. stormchaser80 says:

    With today’s selloff, my proprietary Technicals Model weakened dramatically, though still a little positive. McClellan was negative while the percent of stocks above their 20/50 dma continues to weaken. Oil looks to be breaking down here. I said last Thursday that the higher high on SPX only worsened the negative divergences on the daily chart. A top could come at any time. The hourly chart did not show any positive divergences at today’s lows, so a new low is expected. Finally, $VIX continued its uptrend that I have been talking about, but I was surprised that it did not make a nominal new low before spiking.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  36. Ajay Singhi says:

    Jordi G says:
    January 30, 2017 at 10:26 am
    Hi Ajay, so for you, the bull market is over, isn’t it?
    Ajay Singhi says:
    January 30, 2017 at 8:23 pm
    Jordi, we are in a bear mkt since SPX hit 2134 the first time. SPX tgt is 1500 now, timeframe 18-24 months.

  37. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES at

  38. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    These rolling over episodes have been of limited significance, think this one is too. Market doesnt have any eggs and rotten tomatoes left to throw at itself, a c-wave doesnt change that (123abc ) chart 1 above. I dont see a larger order correction looming negating all the 2s we have been counting 🙂

  39. It was looking pretty bullish for GDX until a late swoon took it under the 10d sma.Now tomorrow will indicate if the Thorson chart is right about a correction to 21.If today had finished over 23.22,I would have thought “this time is different” from all the other breaks of the 10 day.No such luck.That’s it for me today.

  40. Thanks Tony. At the risk of beating a dead horse, the fact that the market could not reach ON highs of 2304 (equivalent) during regular trading hours immediately became a concern. Compound this with trouble getting above 2290 and the global confusion over Trumps travels plans, it was easy to see a pullback in the making.

    Interestingly, the market returned to the area of lift off …..2267/2268. Longer term, I will be watching VIX, the dollar and 10yr yields; today VIX was up, the dollar down and the ten year yield edged higher……not supposed to do that. The buying tail on the day candle suggest its not ready to quit just yet. Over the weekend, I posted a windy reply and hoped you would weigh in on the dollar as the dollar has become the most fashionable measure of “risk on”.

  41. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX filled a gap below and at the same time created a gap above, found support at potential w2/w4 trend line and rebounded into the close (Chart 1). The pair of gaps present a potential island reversal if there is follow-through selling (Chart 2).

  42. 123 abc says:

    Great update, thank you Tony; personally still in the b-wave camp.
    Q: What happened to the Greece (ATG) chart?

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