SHORT TERM: consolidation/pullback continues, DOW -7
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended down 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported lower: 1.9% v 3.5%, and durable goods were reported lower: -0.4% v -4.6%. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2297 close, and immediately began to pullback. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher: 98.5 v 98.1. At 11am the SPX hit 2292. Then after a bounce to SPX 2295 by noon the market hit 2292 again at 3:30. A small bounce into the close ended the week at SPX 2295.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold was added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 pivot. Today: the WLEI was reported higher: 61.9% v 61.7%.
The market opened slightly higher then pulled back moderately for the rest of the day. After Wednesday’s slight negative divergence, the market ticked up to SPX 2301 Thursday morning, declined to 2292 on Friday, then set up a possible positive divergence at the 2292 retest late in the afternoon. Now bounce yet, may need to wait until Monday for any follow through. This 2-day pullback (9 point) continues to look quite normal after a 2-day (44 point) rally. Will review all the charts during the weekend update. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
Hopefully a chart.
From AG Thorson.Also calling for a bottom between Wed-Fri of 21 on GDX.10% selloff he thinks,based on the dollar rallying into a top.See if he’s right.
A big bear told me we are headed to 2700, before the big crash. It will resemble the 1929 crash. 20 percent higher I suppose on maybe things get better for a final top,
SPX P/E at 25, and very high bullish sentiment (too high and ready to revert).
Headline news: “U.S. economy expanded 1.9 percent in fourth quarter, 2016 GDP rises 1.6 percent”.
Conclusion: Markets are over-bought and ripe for a significant correction.
Agree, but as always mkts can move to further extremes making timing very difficult.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/bitcoin_is_a_bubble_weve_seen_before
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Thanks Tom McClellan
Thanks Tony, and everyone xx
UPDATE: NDX beginning “bounce” at market close? “Bull flag” break out on higher volume; note: ATH ahead (red horizontal line on Chart)
ndx futures hourly –
NDX = leading index now!
Good stuff Locan….I missed your charts.x
Thanks Tony.
Tony – are they doing fireworks where you are? Happy CNY!
https://invst.ly/35p0u
Have to figure out how to snapshot the whole chart in Investing.com – any help appreciated.
OEW — thank you Tony for your dedication and, hard work.
Have a comfortable weekend, and rest….