Thursday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were much higher overnight, but declined to around unchanged before the open. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 259K v 234K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2298, ticked up to a new high at 2301, then started to pullback. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2294, bounced to 2299 by 2:30, then ended the day at 2297.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gainedΒ 6 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 pivot. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. 2.5%) and durable goods at 8:30, then at 10am consumer sentiment. Today the Q4 GDP estimated was raised to 2.9% v 2.8%.

After a 2-day rally the market opened unchanged today, ticked up to a new all-time high at SPX 2301, retreated to 2294, then bounced to end the day at 2297. It looks like normal consolidation after a 2% rally from Monday’s low. Especially after yesterday posted new highs in SPX/Total market breadth. Still waiting, however,Β for the SPX 2305 level to be exceeded to eliminate the potential short term B wave scenario. After hours earnings reports and Q4Β GDP estimates tomorrow could be market movers. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum declined to around neutral after yesterday’s negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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67 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    Happy Year of the Trum.. I mean rooster.

  2. Page says:

    I predict start of recession in the 2nd half of 2017. I know some won’t agree but it is coming and yes the catalyst will be the trade war.

  3. Stick save on GDX so far.Silver exploded higher–need gold to do the same,but as of now, disaster has been avoided.Later.

  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ MR1 & YR1 inflection.
    Failure here would support Tony’s ‘b’ wave.
    GL & Good Weekend all

  5. dan pulford says:

    SPY @ 10min h&s neckline.

  6. gary61b says:

    NDX is holding this wet noodle up

  7. micky says:

    My 1st support was hit, next 90 then max 87 area. It may turn anywhere in between those levels. Those are the levels my tool comes up with, will see.

  8. phil1247 says:


    shorts and longs breaking

    ?4th wave triangle

  9. micky says:

    Campfreddy, what was your short entry on gold?

  10. gary61b says:

    A 3% off sale today on indicies would be good

  11. GDP 1.9%…bad miss.Durables down .4.

  12. phil1247 says:


    15 min shorts and longs breaking

    suggests triangle forming

    ? 4th wave triangle then pop and drop ??????????????

    • manunidhi21 says:

      Hi Phil.. what was that ? please explain ?????? whenever possible πŸ™‚

      Namaste Tony!
      need a break

      • phil1247 says:

        draw fib from yest high to 2289low

        .618 resitance level was broken above at 2am
        draw fib from2289 low to 2am high….the .618 support broke

        now we are wedging sideways between the two .618 levels

        one side will win and we will have our answer soon

  13. hooloo1957 says:

    Hey Tony, where can I find in your index about where we started primary three here? Thanks or I guess I mean how can I find it in the index?

  14. stormchaser80 says:

    SPX saw some weakness today as was talked about yesterday. SPX now can turn higher to make a new high. The reason I think this is a possibility is because I want to see stronger negative divergences put in on the Daily chart than are currently there. Also, today’s proprietary Technicals Model score was quite bullish. $VIX has begun a new uptrend with a bullish MACD cross alluded to yesterday. Now the question is, does this signal fail and $VIX make a new low, or does the $VIX uptrend start before the SPX downtrend (which is also quite possible)!

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  15. Very simple stuff on PMs.A note from Kathy Lien,currency expert…”USD/Yen at 115 is up against key moving averages and may be ready for a pullback,possibly after econ news tomorrow am.”
    I’ve mentioned the numbers and ranges,so we just see what happens.Good luck all.

    • kvilia says:

      Learned, I think I figured it out. If history repeats itself, and Dec’16-Mar17 repeats Dec’14-Mar’15, GC can rally to 1250 in the next 5 weeks. Unfortunately that’s where the fairy tale ends unless GC breaks through 1280. If GC breaks down below 1160 – it’s over. I’ll try to publish a chart when have time.

      • Better have less than average econ numbers tomorrow.I mentioned a couple weeks ago that Chinese New Year buying was going to wrap up Jan 27th and would be a negative.GLD tonnage is at new lows today.The best scenario for gold miners–when it happens,will be filling gaps to the upside to 31,when UUP starts filling gaps to the downside,all the way to 24.80 (from 25.86 now).Sometime it will happen.Avi said a push over 24 and “we may never see 21 again.”
        For at least for a week…lol.So we’ll find out tomorrow.A break of 22.50 and I think 21 is a lock.Hope he’s right and GDX reverses here.Good luck.

    • fotis2 says:

      On the daily 115.000 sits on 50ma exact the important resistance will be 115.620 above that confirms a DB with 118. on the cards.G

      • fotis2 says:

        Gold should be testing its 50ma on daily today at 1175.70 stochastic buy on $/yen and sell on Gold give or take a few pips either side this is according to my broker’s chart.Today most definitely D-day for both instruments going forward.

    • Trader T says:

      Hi Fiona.

      Love your posts.

      And your musical selections even more so!


      • fionamargaret says:

        Thank you TT,
        It started with “The Mission” and “Out of Africa” and led to this. ..woodwind.
        (I was diverted for a few days by the great strings background on the Tom Waits song to play Zimmerman’s interpretation of different violin concertos)….my thought pattern….if the guys can talk fractions, I can talk patterns.
        I hope you are doing well x

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Fiona. I look forward to Raymond James every day.

  16. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Think another Pullback time?

  17. Thanks Tony. A miserable trading day because of the restricted trading range; only one trade but decent for the conditions. Overnight it tagged 2299.50 in the futures market or about 2304, incredibly close to the threshold mentioned yesterday; many must be visiting your site. On several occasions I have said the market stopped “there” because of a 1.618 extension. But in our conversation yesterday you and 123abc made it clear that extensions of wave A are very active in driving prices as well. I find it very interesting how interrelated the market is with pullbacks almost designed to yield a 1.618 that comports with the most recent dominant wave…….A. Its like an interwoven fabric. On the same noted, if we treat todays low as part of pullback, the 1.618 is within one tick of 2305.

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