Thursday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were much higher overnight, but declined to around unchanged before the open. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 259K v 234K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2298, ticked up to a new high at 2301, then started to pullback. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 2294, bounced to 2299 by 2:30, then ended the day at 2297.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 pivot. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. 2.5%) and durable goods at 8:30, then at 10am consumer sentiment. Today the Q4 GDP estimated was raised to 2.9% v 2.8%.

After a 2-day rally the market opened unchanged today, ticked up to a new all-time high at SPX 2301, retreated to 2294, then bounced to end the day at 2297. It looks like normal consolidation after a 2% rally from Monday’s low. Especially after yesterday posted new highs in SPX/Total market breadth. Still waiting, however, for the SPX 2305 level to be exceeded to eliminate the potential short term B wave scenario. After hours earnings reports and Q4 GDP estimates tomorrow could be market movers. Short term support remains at the 2286 and 2270 pivots, with resistance at the 2321 pivot. Short term momentum declined to around neutral after yesterday’s negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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67 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    Happy Year of the Trum.. I mean rooster.


  2. Page says:

    I predict start of recession in the 2nd half of 2017. I know some won’t agree but it is coming and yes the catalyst will be the trade war.


  3. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Stick save on GDX so far.Silver exploded higher–need gold to do the same,but as of now, disaster has been avoided.Later.


  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ MR1 & YR1 inflection.
    Failure here would support Tony’s ‘b’ wave.
    GL & Good Weekend all


  5. dan pulford says:

    SPY @ 10min h&s neckline.


  6. gary61b says:

    NDX is holding this wet noodle up


  7. micky says:

    My 1st support was hit, next 90 then max 87 area. It may turn anywhere in between those levels. Those are the levels my tool comes up with, will see.


  8. phil1247 says:


    shorts and longs breaking

    ?4th wave triangle


  9. micky says:

    Campfreddy, what was your short entry on gold?


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