Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet sideways day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were flat overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.3% v 0.2%, and at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 0.8% v -0.4%. The market opened 1 point above yesterday’s SPX 2268 close, then immediately dropped to yesterday’s 2263 low in the opening minutes. After that it started to drift higher. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 67 v 70. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2270, and started to drift lower. At 2pm the FED’s: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm. At 3pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170118a.htm. After hitting SPX 2266 by 1pm the market rallied to 2272 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 26 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2231 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philly FED all at 8:30. Then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8pm.

The market opened flat today, dropped to yesterday’s SPX 2263 low, then closed at yesterday’s 2272 high. Same range, 2263-2272, two days in a row. During today’s decline, however, the DOW, which was the leader during the entire uptrend, made a lower low than yesterday, a lower low than last week, and came within 20 points of reaching the end of December low (SPX 2234 equivalent). Tech which was the laggard during the uptrend is again close to making new highs. The tug of war continues in the choppy environment. Short term support rises to the 2270 pivot and SPX 2254, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum reached overbought at today’s close. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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94 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    SPX lowest close since Jan 3

  2. captbara says:

    Looks like near time buy coming soon. If not tomorrow then by mid of next week. MAGA to be continued 🇺🇸

  3. blackjak100 says:

    I’ve been thinking the same thing last few days and McClellan is thinking same way.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/822103736143093760

  4. fotis2 says:

    In a strange way it is only the market that never lies in this world of lies so letting the market decide when to close or open your position is step one in successful trading still working on rest of steps ongoing battle there..Bit of philosophising for the day 😉 😉

  5. phil1247 says:

    back in GLD

    small position from 1204

  6. kvilia says:

    Gold defended support – back in NUGT.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    At last 1352 as convincingly given way on the Russell. I think we will see 1309 in the not too distant future.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Spx ad line hit ATH yesterday, but tape feels heavy.

  9. torehund says:

    ..not easy to be a bear.

  10. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

    • purplember says:

      Telsa, pretty hard to get excited about tsla stock going up when it loses hundreds of millions per year. tsla is paving the way with new technology. they spend Billions with trial and error to figure it out. once efficient, then automakers will join in and copy technology at a fraction of cost

      • cj32 says:

        AMZN at $810, NFLX at 141 (old price 1110) have been in the same shoes since the IPOs
        Its always the reasonable, expected, anticipated future growth numbers from market’s perception?

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      totally risk free ………………words like that make me realize how complacent people are right now

  11. H D says:

    99% retrace DRYS, potential capitulation low. 8:1 split coming 1/23. Back on radar.

  12. phil1247 says:

    usd/jpy

    hit resistance and target both near 115.5

    moment of truth here ….

  13. phil1247 says:

    /ZB …. TLT

    raised stops on TBT

    bond initial dowside targets hit

    short squeeze brewing ?

    SHORT of a lifetime……but take profits along the way

  14. Just watching a few short term charts and GDX had a nice +div on the 30 min chart at 22.57.(jumped to 23.83)TLT did not.Bonds look like they want to drop–not good for gold.If Yellen reiterates what she said yesterday,dollar rally and bond selloff continues.Keep watching bonds.Later.

  15. captbara says:

    Out of DXJ & UJ. Cleared some down channels with the spike up this morn. Now to wait for the backtest

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Almost 1300 net decliners this morning….the cumulative AD line is falling thru its uptrend line.

    2017-01-19_1003

  17. A lot of different wave counts.
    Looking at the old school line-drawing, seems a rising triangle maybe in the cards.
    A lot of people don’t trust “pattern recognition” … but
    Breakout would be about 2278 in the cash SPX.
    Above that would likely trigger short covering.
    Just saying.

    Chart of the tracking SPY.

  18. well, I see new highs today. drop tomorrow, inauguration day is usually bearish. then next week mostly bullish till end of week before a 5 percent ish correction. lots of counts out there, its a mess to me. but bullish unitil proven other wise.
    some say wave 3 of int 3 is just starting up to 2333
    some say wave c of a 2 still not complete down to 2234 ish again
    some say minute 1 of minor 5 starting
    some say 1 new high and 5 wave up have completed, then crash
    casino opens in 18 minutes good luck, but im expecting new highs today, Obama goes out with dow closing at 20K

  19. cj32 says:

  20. stormchaser80 says:

    TODAYS BIG WARNING: THE MARKET IS CURRENTLY IN THE BOTTOM 1% OF ALL TRADING DAYS SINCE 1990 USING MY METRICS OF MEASURING VOLATILITY. Do not be lulled into a false sense of security here.

    Not much change today. Market breath internals continue to suggest weakness ahead for the SPX, as does weakness in my proprietary Technicals Model. However on a day to day basis, my model is still barely positive. This could mean that the positive divergences as seen on SPX hourly yesterday still could lead to higher prices in the short term.

    $VIX has entered a new uptrend, supported by strong positive divergences mentioned last week. Oil and HYG:IEF are particularly weak and should be a read flag for bulls.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  21. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/KiVY59?image

    /GCG7

    gold is in 15min extension shorts

    bearish below 1205

    1185 is critical support for the extension long

  22. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. Soon it will break out. Dow and Russell vs SPX and techs – show time!

  23. CampFreddie says:

    Spot Gold Weekly – Aimho.

    • kvilia says:

      Freddie – your charts are meaningless. Your lines are arbitrary to say the least, and there is nothing else that would support your theory. I just can’t believe one selling gold based on Yellen/Trump promises. Gold will be really down when the wall construction begin – I will buy you a ticket in a front row in this case.

    • fionamargaret says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        Forgot this was the slightly longer version of Gabriel’s Oboe, with the sticky end included.
        Do watch the movie “The Mission”…it was all meant to go so well….

        Tony’s video is much more relaxing….I don’t think it is a declaration of love…

    • Thanks Fiona.Yesterday Avi gave 24 as a breakout,21 a breakdown on GDX.More Yellen tomorrow..Everyone sees the same thing give or take a point.I see 25.5 as a breakout and as always,the 50d and more importantly the 20d sma as a breakdown.At this point I think its best to be out of it until the move up is seen.I might miss 10% up,but avoid 50% down.18.68 to 23.01 isn’t a bad rally.Later.

  24. CampFreddie says:

    Gold short set up was in place, and triggered today.

  25. “Now, many of you would love to know exactly when the next rate increase is coming and how high rates will rise. The simple truth is, I can’t tell you because it will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months. The economy is vast and vastly complex, and its path can take surprising twists and turns. What I can tell you is what we expect–along with a very large caveat that our interest rate expectations will change as our outlook for the economy changes. That said, as of last month, I and most of my colleagues–the other members of the Fed Board in Washington and the presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks–were expecting to increase our federal funds rate target a few times a year until, by the end of 2019, it is close to our estimate of its longer-run neutral rate of 3 percent.”
    –Yellen,today (not being specific as usual)
    Trump,the ball is in your court.

  26. bouraq says:

    Charts of the day are $USDJPY and $OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Confirming usually (down) vs sometimes (up)

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RoryHandyside/status/821778827164712964

  28. J David Lukos says:

    Tony, What exactly does “Trade what’s in front of you!” mean? Thanks…

    On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 4:13 PM, the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on wrote:

    > tony caldaro posted: “SHORT TERM: quiet sideways day, DOW -22 Overnight > the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US > index futures were flat overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: > 0.3% v 0.2%, and at 9:15 industrial production was reporte” >

  29. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    IHS and serial LDT remain in play. Slow markets at the moment. See charts.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/01/market-timing-update-11817.html

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