Thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy activity continues, DOW -63

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5% as well. US index futures were lower overnight too. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 247K v 235K, and export (0.4% v 0.2%)/import prices (-0.2% v -0.1%) were reported mixed. The market opened 7 points below yesterday’s SPX 2275 close and continued to decline. Around 11am the SPX hit its lowest level in more than a week at 2254. After that the market started to rally. The rally continued throughout the afternoon, and the SPX hit 2272 just before a 2270 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold rallied $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI and retail sales (est. +0.8% v 0.1%)  at 8:30, then business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened to the downside and continued to decline until hitting SPX 2254. After finding support there it rallied all the way back into the SPX 2270’s. Day traders delight. As noted yesterday we continue to observe declining highs and lows since the SPX 2282 all-time high. Not exactly what one would expect to see in a rising fifth wave. Unless of course, that fifth wave has concluded and the market is now in pullback/correction mode. This market needs a breakout soon, or it is likely headed for another 5% correction. Short term support is now at SPX 2254 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum rose from oversold early to just above neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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82 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Dex T says:

    MLK day Monday, Post holiday turn next week

  2. captbara says:

    B wave spike today, then complete C or 2 down next week.

  3. EL MATADOR says:

    FYI – DJIA completed it’s 2nd right shoulder and is underway to testing it’s neckline…if you’re bearish that is……but if you’re bullish then there is an mini-ihs for ya’ll

  4. blackjak100 says:

    Well, we got the deep retrace for wave 2 usually seen following wave 1 LD’s if 2279 holds.

  5. EL MATADOR says:

    NDX completing wave v from it’s 4854 uptrend (see hrly chart)…..when it’s done it will take down all the indices with it…..mean no tortillas for SPX ATH. looking for a hit at 2279-81 for a cheap short, my 2c

  6. Wonder if equities have ever gone down the day JPM announces earnings? (Since 2009).

    • Dex T says:

      I don’t have an answer but in talking about Morgan… I could never understand JPM’s popularity. I used them years ago and they provided among the worst everything across the board- rates, service, investment advice, etc….

      I cut ties with them and never looked back. There are a ton of banks that anyone can do better with.

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    S&P is going to 2300 at least and DOW is going to 20k

    when Wells Fargo goes up 25% in 2 months on pure optimism and then misses earnings and revenue and is up 3% it just goes to show you no bad is priced in or will be priced in until the market reaches whatever retarded projection it wants to go to. Naz at a new high, and S&P ready to break out again. Earnings wont be that good 4th quarter or 1st quarter or 2nd quarter but again it wont matter.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      this is reverse subliminal karmatic psychology FYI

      • It’s not who misses,but who in the sector beats–like JPM.That gives the excuse to overlook Wells…and they don’t need much of an excuse to ignore lousy news,in the first place.Look at the ramifications of retail stores closing up.No big deal!!!Everyone will just go work at Amazon…lol.One big building stretching from sea to shining sea.

  8. As I mentioned early yesterday,gold and PMs had a huge chance to bust 1205 with a dollar that fell into the mid 100.5 region.Didn’t happen,so the strategy became clear.Wait until gold clears 1205 and GDX 23.35 (last high).Good luck all.

  9. captbara says:

    Must be a very shallow 2 in ES overnight.

  10. Yesterday’s gap-down opening has now been closed – with a gap-up opening today, which must now be closed to the downside.

    The next gap to close is the gap-up on the first trading day of the year, after Dec 31’s close at 2,240.

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Anyone else think the TLT can get back to $130? That wold be a 50% retrace and close the massive open gap from the election.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    I’m sticking with the pattern for the week. Futures flat or up. Sell off on open. Bounce in to close.

    Gandalf to be defeated once and of all in the RUT. All the best.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Tony has Gary been banned or just been asked to stop posting?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Gary had been asked a number of times to stop posting this gibberish

      • futuresman says:

        Thanks Tony !…. That is the second best thing I heard this year besides my 2700 target for es that might be to conservative you said…..
        I want to apologize for my rant about Gary L. and SPYtrader who are probably the same person but, I could no longer listen to his LEFT WING TRASH and FAKE NEWS that I’ve been listening to last year and this year and bashing our President elect Trump who hasn’t even been in office yet….
        I will refrain myself from other attacks even though this year is the first I have ever put politics on this board since joining April of 2016….
        This is the only blog I belong to even though I have had some disagreements with your thinking and I’m not about to criticize you when it happens because I know I’m not always right either the markets can be tricky at times but we do seem to be in sync most of the time …… Thanks for everything !!

  14. stormchaser80llc says:

    As I said yesterday, its worth noting that my proprietary Volatility Model (which has nothing to do with $VIX) is near the lowest since 1990. And with near historical narrow Bollinger Bands on SPX Daily and HYG:IEF, it sure looks like a top is forming. McClellan Oscillator is still negative as are the signals on all five of the percent of moving averages. $VIX uptrend looks fairly solid now too. SPX hourly chart showed conflicting signals, but drilling down to the 15-min chart there are a lot of negative divergences even and today’s lows, which is bearish. However, technically speaking, my proprietary Technicals Model was slightly positive again today, and slightly higher than the past several days. So I wouldn’t write off some firming up of the market before the larger downward move takes place.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  15. Thanks Tony

    Possible ascending triangle

    Problem:all waves have overlapped in the first wave(252-320)?

  16. This market needs a breakout soon, or it is likely headed for another 5% correction.

    Sentiment appears to support this scenario:

    “Bears are giving up. The number of bets against the U.S. market as a percentage of total shares outstanding has dropped to the lowest since April 2015, falling in 2016 for the first time in seven years. Less than a year ago, it stood at the highest since the global financial crisis, exchange data compiled by Bloomberg show…

    …There are more bulls than at any time since mid-2014. The latest Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter writers showed the proportion of optimistic market participants exceeds 60 percent. Similar readings preceded two years of range-trading, during which the S&P 500 suffered two 10 percent selloffs.”

    Tsachy Mishal ‏@CapitalObserver 6h6 hours ago
    1. Record ETF inflows Nov/Dec
    2. II bulls over 60%
    3. Gigantic drop in SPY & NYSE short interest
    4. NAAIM record 4 week MA
    5. Consensus & Market Vane bulls at extreme
    6. Record spec longs in RUT futures

  17. blackjak100 says:

    The VIX near 11 can do this type of stuff….

  18. fionamargaret says:

    Both of these have terrific stuff….scroll down on Chris’s to get his chart 1926-2016…symmetry within rectangles…bullish
    Helene’s blog is knowledgeable and classy….and she knows what is happening…a fun read.

  19. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: USD/JPY breaking out; TBonds breaking down; = JPY-Carry trade ???

  20. In a real market,the dollar being in a downtrend,breaking support levels,would drag equities into a correction.This one however is not real. (Trying reverse psychology again to influence equities to go the way I want them to

  21. Bud Fox says:

    SP500, pulling back to 2212, would be of great interest to me….

  22. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $EURUSD at

  23. captbara says:

    Bear case on ES seems pretty compelling, with an ED followed up by a LD.

    Anyways, the keep it simple chart

    • Linda West says:

      The Friday the 13th mini-crash was a stock market crash that occurred on Friday, October 13, 1989. The crash – referred to by some as “Black Friday” – was apparently caused by a reaction to a news story of the breakdown of a $6.75 billion leveraged buyout deal for UAL Corporation, the parent company of United Airlines. When the UAL deal fell through, it helped trigger the collapse of the junk bond market. The deal unraveled because the Association of Flight Attendants pulled out of the deal when management, in negotiations over an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) designed to fund the leveraged buyout, refused to agree to terms.

      Larry Williams who is calling for stock market crash, Hit todays sell off exactly with his 2016 Chart prediction date, it might be wise thing to be nimble now,

  24. kvilia says:

    The art of connecting dots…

  25. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX is still trying to breakout with respect to the gray line in Chart 1. Are we looking at an expanding-LDT down (Chart 2 red) or a potential IHS (Chart 1 green line)?

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