SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -32
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2% as well. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and the market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2269 close. By 10am, when wholesale inventories were reported higher: 1.0% v -0.4%, the SPX hit 2265 and started to rally. The rally continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 2279 – just 3 points short of its all-time high. Then it started to pullback. The pullback went back to SPX 2269 by 2pm, bounced to 2274 by 3:30, then ended the day at 2269 again.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold added $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots.
Today could have been a pivotal day for this uptrend, as it continues to lose upside momentum. On December 13th the SPX entered the 2270/2286 pivot zone for the first time when reaching 2278. Since then it has only managed one higher high at SPX 2282 in nearly one month. On December 14th the DOW neared the 20K area for the first time when reaching 19,966. Since then it has made three more attempts to clear 20K, which have all fallen just short. The action in the DOW in recent days has turned choppy, while the SPX displays four waves from SPX 2234: 2264-2245-2282-2265 and 2279 so far. After reaching SPX 2279 today the market declined 10 points. Not exactly what one would have expected, at this stage of the uptrend, if the SPX was impulsing higher. This uptrend has clearly stalled even from a wave count perspective. Unless the market breaks out soon, a large pullback or even a 5% correction may be next. Short term support is at SPX 2265 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought, after being quite oversold yesterday. then ended below neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend