Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2% as well. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and the market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2269 close. By 10am, when wholesale inventories were reported higher: 1.0% v -0.4%, the SPX hit 2265 and started to rally. The rally continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit 2279 – just 3 points short of its all-time high. Then it started to pullback. The pullback went back to SPX 2269 by 2pm, bounced to 2274 by 3:30, then ended the day at 2269 again.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold added $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots.

Today could have been a pivotal day for this uptrend, as it continues to lose upside momentum. On December 13th the SPX entered the 2270/2286 pivot zone for the first time when reaching 2278. Since then it has only managed one higher high at SPX 2282 in nearly one month. On December 14th the DOW neared the 20K area for the first time when reaching 19,966. Since then it has made three more attempts to clear 20K, which have all fallen just short. The action in the DOW in recent days has turned choppy, while the SPX displays four waves from SPX 2234: 2264-2245-2282-2265 and 2279 so far. After reaching SPX 2279 today the market declined 10 points. Not exactly what one would have expected, at this stage of the uptrend, if the SPX was impulsing higher. This uptrend has clearly stalled even from a wave count perspective. Unless the market breaks out soon, a large pullback or even a 5% correction may be next. Short term support is at SPX 2265 and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought, after being quite oversold yesterday. then ended below neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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121 Responses to Tuesday update


    Check out the South African equity mkt. 2.5 year 7 wave diametric completing with a recent triangle then the break. Take off.

  2. captbara says:

    For the bull count looks like yesterday was a B wave now.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Technically, there is a valid EW expanding diagonal from 2282 but barely as wave 4 is .49 pts greater than wave 2. They are very uncommon, but it would be the bears only hope. I would expect a retrace towards 2171-2276 if that’s the case. I have no $SPX trading positions at the moment.

  3. Bud Fox says:

    NY A/D line appears to have completed a critical high, this am.
    I look to Tony to, make more clear the import of this NY A/D line…

  4. should be an interesting close

  5. Gold ran from 1190 to 1199 in 10 minutes.Now the biggie…getting over 1205.At the same time DXY went to 101.28 which is huge support–and bounced.A break of that level is needed to get gold above 1205.It’s all connected.

    • CB says:

      Nice action in gold for sure.
      After 1190ish you also have 1219 which is an important level on the LT chart. Good luck everyone.

  6. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  7. purplember says:

    raised stops on 3x long SPXL. feels very choppy. if higher, great. drops too much, i’ll take my profits.

  8. Trump was pure Trump in his presser.I watched gold and equities act like they were on opposite ends of a teeter totter while he was talking.The guy is very likable imho.Telling CNN to shove their question was classic.Gold needs to break 1190 for the next $10 move.Good luck all.

  9. gary61b says:

    I would like to see the lows of 2228 or 2234 which ever you play tagged again,

  10. EL MATADOR says:

    2263 has been breached….FWIW

  11. lunker1 says:

    +D at 2261 and C=A

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Yes agree, that Gray Cohn is a very bad choice. Don’t no much about Jay Clayton other than it sounds like the guy George Clooney plays in Michael Clayton

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    if you guys want any long ideas……………….take a look at WDC. Great story, underappreciated, growth story, buyout synergies, cheap PE, great earnings releases and preannouncements as of late, tons of upgrades and really strong price especially as of late. Lastly it pays a nice dividend

    one of my favorite ideas.

  13. The latest groundswell,that I think Mr C started last year,is that post-Inauguration will initiate a big selloff in equities.This one opinion by Mr C has morphed into a chorus.There was also a majority of experts I heard in mid December,that investors were waiting for Jan 1 to sell stocks for tax purposes–didn’t happen.
    So if there IS a selloff,I’m thinking that it either starts early (next week)or not at all.If we don’t sell by Jan 20th–maybe we don’t?Just a theory I’m kicking around.

  14. Algos want to push market higher, could be the day we hit 20K Dow

  15. vivelaamo says:

    What happening with Trump today?

  16. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE bubble continues.. 12 straight up days which has never happened before in the 33 years it’s existed! Daily RSI approaching 90. Looking to sell any spike on Trump

  17. Sethu N says:

    Hi Tony,
    Dont bother Today will be your Breakout day for DOW. Dow will go past 20k.

  18. fotis2 says:

    Please stop posting political views,theories,conspiracies etc etc there are a gazillion sites on the net for that do you really have to come here, on a trading site, to do that?Geeeeeez

  19. Confirmation hearings for ex-Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson will start today for his appointment as Secretary of State.

    Some see Tillerson’s nomination as part of Trump’s efforts to forge a friendlier relationship with Russia, and many lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are deeply skeptical of that endeavor.


    Maybe the markets are waiting to see how well Tillerson can handle old neo-cons like John McCain?

  20. Some tidbits from some analysts I read,that stuck in my craw.
    1)Chinese New Year Ends Jan 27th.Possible temporary end to gold buying?
    2)10 year yields deciding which way to go.Under 2.33% would be bullish for gold,while above 2.57 bearish.
    3)Avi has a scenario where GDX gets above 24,translating into a very bullish wave count.More likely(he says),is GDX meanders down close to 20.40 and then tears up.
    I’m of the opinion that gold needs to keep going durIng this month to confirm the six month trend is up.There have been fake out starts in the past,but those make themselves known quickly,as in 2015 when gold shot up for a couple weeks and then plunged.If this 6 month uptrend pattern is viable,there should not be a big selloff of gold to the 1120-1150 area.Just my ever humble opinion.Good luck all.

    • kvilia says:

      Out of NUGT for now. Daily gold in the overbought territory, also miners are underperforming gold at this point. I would love to see a pullback and a beginning of substantial rally. I’m agreeing with Tony on dollar entering downtrend. Similar story with gold as last year, just hoping for pullback to load a wagon.

  21. zvyezda says:

    In reply to the assorted political prognostications lower on this thread: ROTFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I would expect the worthless, pathetic anti-American CIA to fall for it, but you all as well! Watching Japanese Anime in his jammies with them afterwards??Just too, too FUNNY!!!!

    Excellent trolling of domestic enemies! WELL DONE 4chan!!!!



  22. torehund says:

    Take precautions everybody. Risk of a 9 on the Richter scale.

  23. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX is still flirting with potential support (Chart 1 and Chart 2). A potential small-degree 4th wave triangle looks interesting (Chart 3-blue). However, the after market drop in ES is getting too close for comfort (Chart 4).

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    It continues to look like the market, HYG:IEF and oil are beginning a new downtrend. $VIX’s uptrend started Monday. With its hourly Bollinger Band narrowing significantly today after the bullish MACD cross, look for $VIX to shoot higher soon. My proprietary Technicals Model was little changed today, as were market breadth and internals.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. CB says:

    Thanks Tony!

  26. bouraq says:

    Charts of the day is $OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. Three or four week ago we discussed buying the election and selling the inauguration, a still viable thesis.

    Today’s price action may be in this spirit or simply caution in advance of tomorrow’s news conference.

    Cut and paste from Bloomberg:

    U.S. stocks fluctuated with the dollar, while Treasuries retreated as post-U.S. election asset moves stalled a day before Donald Trump is slated to hold a press conference that could provide detail on his policy preferences.

    Caution crept into financial markets as the euphoria over Trump’s perceived pro-growth policies faded with Congress holding confirmation hearings for his proposed cabinet members and the president-elect preparing to face the media for the first time since July. The Chinese PPI data provided a silver lining, indicating the world’s second-largest economy is poised to export inflation around the world via its supply chains.

    “The uncertainty about Trump’s future plans for the economy is still high at present,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG.

    • The Russian White House. Guess you missed the action. New Intelligence report that in 2013 during visit to Russia with Miss America winner the Ruskies have salacious recordings of Him. Only the most warped movie writer could make this stuff up. For the really brain dead out there I will connect the A-B dots for you. Trumps bizarre support of Putin even after being “FORCED” to admit our 16 US intelligence findings on Russian hacking could very well have a SIMPLE answer. But there are those out there that accept anything this man says and does as normal. Imagine PUTIN running our national security. How gutless are the REPUKS? Well we can’t count on them. Their first act of 2017 was to sneak a dismissal of ethics rule.

      BTW, am I the ONLY one that sees these minor distractions such as Impeachment or perhaps small 140 character tweets causing world repercussions? Is it even remotely possible it could actually affect the Market! Lordie no……………. I now return you to your mundane world of minuets and dancing chart patterns.

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        futures are lower slightly although other markets are not…i guess tied with obama farewell speech.

        • Trump made the outrageous normal so it makes sense to me if we rally 300 points this week. Wait till the denials and more importantly wait till HE reverses executive orders on sanctions. Greedy brain dead politicians in sync with their constituents. As long as tax cuts take hold. The real world has nothing on “House Of Cards”.

          Oh BTW, all news is propaganda from the STATE. Don’t believe it.

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            markets are topping off- we are at the end of 5th maybe one last high in coming days…so your assertions about correction may be right.

          • ariez5 says:

            Gary, I don’t always agree with the way you say things, but I agree with your views here 100%. In two weeks half the people who voted for Trump will be asking themselves with regret how they could have ignored the truth about this psychotic egomaniac that was staring them in the face. Although I trade the markets purely technically and wish the comments on this website could hue more to technicals, I have little doubt that Trump’s idiocy will be the proximal cause of the market’s demise.

            • blackjak100 says:

              agree, back in 2008 I remember everyone saying the country was in trouble because Obama had no business experience. The market rose 200%+. Now that we have a president with a lot of business experience, it’s my belief the market will go sideways/down during his presidency. This means no P3 TC!

      • SPYtrader says:

        Gary, I am with you. My family owns a business and several trump operatives have come in and are putting pressure on my family to sign over the company to the government. They said that every company in America will be forced to sign a document that gives ownership to trump. I was right there and they definitely had Russian accents. I could not believe it when the also said if my parents did not sign over their company they would be taken out back and shot. Very scary. Keep us informed about your website, whatever it costs it will be worth it.

        • futuresman says:

          Spytrader that was one hell of a dream lol, I suggest you report that with our intelligence agencies….I think you and Gary Leibowitz are the same person trying to draw up business for your web site….. Your delusional….

  28. blackjak100 says:

    TC, there are clearly 5 waves up from 2084 if you count wave 5 as an ED which is a valid ED. Is it a LD or ED is the $64K question???


  29. Wel, if Trump doesn’t do it,nothing will get stocks moving…lol.A good performance might be what the market wants to see.The two month bull timeframe running out quickly.Good luck all.

  30. Thanks Tony. I think you are right because it failed from”underneath” or at support rather than overhead resistance.

  31. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. I appreciate your evaluation of the lack of upside oomph in the market. I liquidated my recent longs today with minimal damage. I just wasn’t seeing the strength that I had expected. I’ll wait out this week and the next in cash, and then if we start down, go short. Good luck to everyone.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes, it’s still probably a likely scenario so good catch on that count. All of the choppy movement up on the rally off of TC’s minute iv low did not seem right, at least from conventional EW standpoint. This is a good lesson on why to consider several counts, but not rely on any of them to predict market movement.

  32. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. Short is on the table, and crude broke long setups returning to weekly/daily shorts. I think SCO has an upside target of 85-88, looking to add more short if we pullback to 67-68 area. I think gold can retrace to 1160 area, and then lift off. I don’t understand how it can fall if dollar is getting ready to enter downtrend, even if its corrective. If gold indeed is dropping to 1160 and finding support, Id be looking to get back into NUGT.
    TZA is in my portfolio as well for the past couple of weeks now – patiently waiting.

  33. Linda West says:

    SOX index making another high!

  34. TC’s 2245 support level conveniently is sitting on the trendline drawn from SPX 22187.44 thru 2233.62

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