Monday update

SHORT TERM: pullback/consolidation, DOW -76

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the SPX opened 3 points below Friday’s 2277 close. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 2269, then rallied to 2275 by 11:30. Then it started to drift back down again. At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher: $25.0B v $16.0B. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2269  again and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $2.10, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support slips to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today after Friday’s record close. Hit SPX 2269 in the opening minutes, bounced, remained slightly above that level for most of the day, then closed there. The 4% decline in Crude, which is similar to the first day of last week, pressured the SPX/DOW, while the NDX/NAZ made new all-time highs. Mixed market today. We continue to count three waves up from the recent SPX 2234 low: 2264-2245-2282, with a possible fourth underway. Hourly and daily counts posted this weekend remain unchanged. Short term support is at SPX 2245 and SPX 2234, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought to oversold today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Monday update

  1. iamwhoiis says:

    When I click on the “Tuesday update” link, I get this message:
    “Apologies, but the page you requested could not be found. Perhaps searching will help.”

  2. kvilia says:

    Beautiful SCO breakout – CL is toast.

  3. captbara says:

    Looks impulsive from the lows. The 3rd of 3rds count would continue on the next PB, perhaps from 2273.

  4. H D says:

    This wave has liked to test the pivots twice. Ping pong

  5. blackjak100 says:

    with the potential valid LD from 2234, I think risk reward to short here is very very good with stop at 2282. Downside target is 2252ish.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    A dancing bear is normally a very get signal to short. Now we get a dancing bull. hmmmm…..

  7. captbara says:

    Dancing bull.gif

  8. EL MATADOR says:

    2285 on deck, hoy!

  9. scottycj1 says:

    Gold is about to enter the Loo

  10. vivelaamo says:

    SPX just backtested the channel breakout. Needs to turn here.

  11. 5 points away from a -div on the hourly SPX–unless it powers up to 95 on RSI .

  12. fbqueen3 says:

    Can a wave iv have an a-b-c?

  13. From yesterday, I missed it,
    If you haven’t seen it
    Especially watch the CNBC interview with Mark Grant, at the top.
    He’s usually wrapped “pretty tight“, very sober guy, very bullish these days.

    Trump’s plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

  14. blackjak100 says:

    TC, is the group thinking 2282 marked 1 of 5 as LD?

  15. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE in a bubble here, it’s been going up on it’s own for the last 3 weeks. With crude breaking down and sterling selling overdone, it could be a very large drop when it finally pops.

  16. so wave 4 finished at 2265 wave 5 up? upside max is 2301 to end minute 5 then 5 percent correction. but wave 5 are short . Id expect it to end at 2285. we shall see.

  17. Bud Fox says:

    Pretty quiet on this broad this am….

  18. Hugh Jazole says:

    How does the welfare state, and its potential decline factor into your long term analysis?

    • tony caldaro says:

      where it is located?

      • Hugh Jazole says:

        Ha ha! OK. I’ve been reading a book called The Sovereign Individual. Here’s a quote from the book. Sound familiar?

        “In its twilight, with a faltering capacity to redeem promises of something
        for nothing from an empty pocket, the welfare state found it expedient to
        foster new myths of discrimination. Many categories of officially “op-
        pressed” people were designated, especially in North America. Individuals
        in groups with designated status as “victims” were informed that they were
        not responsible for shortcomings in their own lives. Rather, the fault was
        said to lie with “dead white males” of European descent, and the oppressive
        power structure allegedly rigged to the disadvantage of the excluded groups.
        To be black, female, homosexual. Latino, francophone, disabled, etc. was to
        be entitled to recompense for past repression and discrimination.”

        • tony caldaro says:

          Such nonsense, sounds like someone with a political agenda.
          There are successful people from every background and every walk of life.
          To blame one’s own shortcomings on anything, except maybe a mental or physical disability, it a total copout.
          Outcasts, criminals, and the like use their cultural history, family, lack of education, laziness or whatever as a crutch, to feed off society because they believe they are owed something. They are owed nothing.
          We all become who we are by the choices we make.
          There are no mistakes. There are only wrong choices.

          • Hugh Jazole says:

            I agree with you completely. The book asserts that the modern welfare state is in decline, and will attempt to preserve itself by using propaganda, in the form of creating new “oppressed” groups. The book was written in 1999.

  19. Chicken and egg question Mr C:
    Dollar sees equities not doing much and drops also?Or dollar drops and equities follow?

  20. llerias7 says:

    I find bullish sentiment to high at the moment…big money waiting for Trump taking command first, I think. Until then “chop-chop minor 4” will be.

  21. Once in a while I check Bulkowski.Today he’s predicting two indices. By Jan 15th,he thinks the Dow heads down to 19200.He also thinks S&P heads up to 2350 by Jan 15th.For some reason I’m picturing Linda Blair’s head spinning around right now…lol.Very bi-polar prognosticating.

  22. Just watching the DXY/Yen strengthen a lot,but gold barely moving (from -3.50 to +2.50).Huge support(according to Kathy Lien,currency expert)is supposedly at 115.A break of that would be a gamechanger short term…theoretically.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Fun is in FX around 2.00am, but in the morning it is done, dusted and analyzed.
      The music helps soothe the savage breast….good stuff.

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today the market showed signs of breaking down in both internals and breadth. This is after putting in month long negative divergences. The daily chart supports a top, while the hourly chart shows a chance of a brief bounce in the very short term. My proprietary Technicals Model fell close to zero.

    Last week I called for a new VIX uptrend after putting in positive divergences, and today we saw what looks to be the first uptick in volatility. Oil is lagging the market as I opined it could last week.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  24. Mr. C, at what point do you think you’ll change the “long term: uptrend” notation to “bull market”?

      • 123 abc says:

        Tony, assumed you would consider “Long term: Bull market” once the SPX exceeds 2336 —is that correct or too simplistic?

        • 123abc, Why is that level significant? Does that eliminate or confirm something?

          • 123 abc says:

            The uptrend from the Feb 2016 low to present high, may be considered as an Irregular Flat b-wave; which once complete, would commence a 45%-50% bear market.

            However, if 2336 is exceeded, then the b-wave exceeds its maximum allowable identity by surpassing 1.618 the length of the a-wave, and thus will then be considered as a Primary-iii wave bull market.

            Any errors, Tony shall correct.

            • kvilia says:

              abc, 45-50% bear market from what number to where (SPX)? Much obliged.

              • 123 abc says:

                Assuming the SPX gets up to 2336 and then begins to fall and take out 2084, I’d assume OEW would then consider a 45%-50% Cycle-2 bear market to be underway targeting 1170-1280 approximately. Otherwise, if the SPX manages to clear 2336, then OEW is targeting is 3000+ by 2018-2020. Of course, I’m not student of OEW yet, so Tony shall correct any errors!

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

  26. kvilia says:

    Negative div NUGT, anywhere between a dollar to two drop from here.

  27. Bud Fox says:

    QQQ, looking like a double price top at $120.
    3/31/00 the q’s were at $120.50…TODAY…We hit 122.55.
    Now, I mention the Q’s high in Mar. 31, 2000. Because,
    the Q top was in Mar 30th 2000. So – do we have a similar
    price top in our future, leading to a Bear market? Maybe.
    My NYSE wave count, is at the 5th wave up, top signal.
    I feel like the investment risk in stocks is nearing a critical
    point, in time/price……IMO

  28. pooch77 says:

    Vive,didn’t you sell tna the day before the 19 point drop?

  29. 123 abc says:

    Tony, just a suggestion: Perhaps tagging the following posts with “Special Report” and “Selected Charts” and then renaming them as follows may assist with archivability. Believe its better suited to have a individual posts for unique reports.

    Weekend Update / Gold

    Weekend Update / Bonds

    Weekend Update / Soft Commodities

    Weekend Update / Growth Secular Cycles

  30. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. ,closed some RUT shorts at Gandalf today and went long. But I want him to be passed in the next few days and will be happily stopped out. Target is then 1309. The support here has held so many times now.

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