weekend update

REVIEW

The week started on Tuesday at SPX 2239. The market gapped up to start the week, hit SPX 2264, sold off to 2245, then gapped up on Wednesday to hit 2273. Thursday the market pulled back to SPX 2260. Then on Friday the SPX made all-time new highs at 2282. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.95%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the downtick: the ADP, monthly payrolls, unemployment, factory orders, plus the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: construction spending, ISM manufacturing, auto sales, the WLEI, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by retail sales, business/wholesale inventories and consumer credit.

SOFT COMMODITIES

As noted in the last report on Gold, commodities move in approximate 30-year cycles: 10 years up and 20 years down. Commodity peaks, in the last century, occurred in 1920, 1951, 1980 and 2011. While most commodities track this cycle quite well, soft commodities such as Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, etc. can deviate somewhat due to weather conditions and government price fixing.

1cotton

The price of Cotton, over the last century, has generally followed the 30-year commodity cycle. Peaks have occurred within a year or so of commodity cycle peaks, with weather related price spikes in between. These price spikes would make it difficult to uncover a long-term cycle, but they are actually an harmonic within the larger cycle.

A closer look at Cotton from 1970-present displays the 30-year cycle noted in black numbers, and the harmonics of this cycle are noted in blue and green numbers. As you will observe even the harmonics have a pattern. Cotton was in a cyclical bull market from 1970-1980, and from 2001-2011 – which matched Gold’s cycle perfectly. In between, a cyclical bear market unfolded from 1980-2001. Cotton is currently in another cyclical bear market, which should bottom within a year, or so, of the year 2031.

The first harmonic, or sub-cycle, is simply 10-years up then 6-years down and is noted in blue: 1970-1980, 1986, 1986-1995, 2001, 2001-2011. Notice it is aligned with the 10-year bull market, and displays about a 10-year rise in the middle of the 20-year bear market. Since Cotton peaked in the year 2011, this suggests a tradable low in the year 2017.

cotton

The second harmonic applies only to the price action of the 10-year advances within the first harmonic. After every 6-year low there is a spike in price lasting 2-3 years, followed by a steep decline. Then the bull phase resumes. Notice the three spikes off the 6-year lows: 1970-1973, 1986-1988, and 2001-2003. This suggests once the 2017 low is in for Cotton it should have a price spike lasting 2-3 years.

soybean

Each of the soft commodities should have peaks and lows within about one year of the general 30-year cycle, and the harmonics previously noted. Each individual commodity should be tracked to determine its own specific turn dates. The Soybean chart above provides an example of the possible date offsets. Hope this helps those inclined to trade the Softs.

LONG TERM: uptrend

An interesting first week to start the year. Unlike last year, when the market gapped down to start the year and then followed Crude in its waterfall decline to $26. This year the market started with two gap up openings and ended each day higher than where it opened. The NYSE finally made a bona fide new high, five months after the NDX/NAZ and six months after the SPX/DOW. This along with another tidbit of data, that we cannot disclose, confirms what we have suspected for most of this year. The NYSE has become an international index, that is NOT representative of the US stock market. The last hope for a quantified Primary V is now gone. As a result we have dropped the NYSE charts to the bottom of the second page in stock charts.

spxweekly

In addition to giving consideration to a potential Primary V, in the first half of the year, we also considered a potential Major B wave advance. This second pattern suggested a potential corrective rise to new all-time highs that could unfold in a diagonal triangle or a double zigzag. We have all these counts posted on the NYSE charts. The overall action in the DOW and NAZ totally eliminates any sort of diagonal triangle scenario. There simply isn’t any rising triangular formation underway. The last potential bearish scenario, a double zigzag B wave, will be eliminated when the SPX exceeds 2336. Thus far this potential pattern is still possible.

With the Primary V and diagonal triangle Major B now out of the way we can continue to concentrate on the Primary III bull market at hand. As labeled on the chart above. A Primary I bull market unfolded from 2009 at SPX 667 to 2015 at SPX 2135. Then a brief Primary II bear market unfolded bottoming in 2016 at SPX 1810. Since then the SPX has been in a Primary III bull market, which is still in its early stages. Our initial target, after SPX 2336 is cleared, is SPX 3000+ by 2018-2020.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Primary III has thus far unfolded in three impulsive uptrends: Feb-Apr, Jun-Aug, and Nov-Jan. We have labeled these three uptrends as: Int. i and ii, Minor 1 and 2, and possibly Minor 3 underway. The first uptrend advanced about 300 pts. over 2 months, the second uptrend about 200 pts. over 2 months, and this third uptrend is about 200 pts. over 2 months. The downtrends have declined about 100 pts. each over 2-3 months. Thus far the trends have been quite consistent.

While these trends have been unfolding we have been trying to hone in on this bull market’s internal characteristics – the wave activity within the trends. We had observed one view, added another view, then recently expanded it to a few more, and now have contracted it back to two again. The newer view will be discussed in this section. And the older view, which most have followed, in the short term section below.

spxdaily

Since Int. i was about 300 pts. and Minor wave 1 about 200 pts., we have been expecting Minor wave 3 to be around 300 pts. Thereby giving it an upside target in the SPX 2380’s. Third waves are almost always longer than first waves. At last month’s SPX 2278 high we could count five waves up from the Minor 2 downtrend low at SPX 2084: 2147-2125-2214-2187-2278. After that high the market had its largest pullback since the uptrend began: 44 pts. versus 22 and 27 pts. This 44 pt. pullback also retraced about 23.6% of the entire uptrend. After that SPX 2234 low a week ago Friday the market rallied to new highs just yesterday at SPX 2282. This view suggests Minute wave i, of Minor 3, ended at SPX 2278. Minute wave ii ended at SPX 2234. And Minute iii is currently underway. This is quite a bullish count, and has a qualifier noted below. Medium term support is at the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The older version of this bull market’s characteristics everyone should be familiar with, as the counts have been posted on the hourly charts for some time. This version suggests this uptrend has already completed four Minute waves with the fifth underway: 2214-2187-2278-2234-2282 thus far. Should this count be correct, the wave degrees will probably be downgraded one degree since this uptrend is probably not all of Minor 3.

spxhourly

The characteristics of this count display a third wave that is shorter than the first. This of course implies the fifth wave has to be the shortest of three waves. This limits the upside potential for this uptrend to between SPX: 2279 and 2325. And herein lies the qualifier for these two counts. Should the uptrend end within the above range, then the correct count is posted on the hourly chart. Should the uptrend continue beyond SPX 2325, then the correct count is posted on the daily chart. Interesting juncture! Short term support is at the 2270 pivot and SPX 2245, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your 2017 trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.8%.

European markets were also all higher and gained 1.6%.

The DJ World index gained 1.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds may be starting an uptrend and gained 0.3% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Gold is also in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

The USD may be entering a downtrend and lost 0.1%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: consumer credit at 3pm. Tuesday: wholesale inventories. Thursday: export/import prices, weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit. Friday: the PPI, retail sales, business inventories and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in special report, weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

146 Responses to weekend update

  1. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    I believe the rally from 08 is an x wave. It’s not impulsive in any way. Zero participation. It is now coming to an end and we will probably draw out a multi year flat pattern. From 99 a double three running correction.
    Just started looking at the site.

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Word of warning for anybody that trades the FTSE. Last time it was this oversold on the 14 day RSI it dropped 800 points in a month.

  3. EL MATADOR says:

    I think this cotton candy is a good short …. anyone else agree or disagree

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Have to keep checking this blog for a long signal. I wish Newbie did notifications.

  5. fionamargaret says:

    So far my suggestions are working out…..TMF, DGAZ, NUGT, JNUG, UVXY….and I added UCO (looks like it is sleeping, but it still is in a positive pattern).
    Once JNUG gets over 9, ripper.
    NUGT already broke out a few days back
    DGAZ because NG is going lower.

    Canadian banks are talking digital as well……think the banks want to play around with decimal points….

    • One of the charts you posted from Chris Kimble a few weeks ago,(HUI/SPX chart)clearly broke out in favor of HUI for the first time in 5 years.The last time this happened was in 2001 and a long out-performance by gold stocks vs S&P stocks followed.Pretty interesting stuff.You should be getting that chart today I would think.

      • It appears that as long as GDX stays above 22.30,a bullish breakout is taking place.I’ll be adding more today with stops at the mentioned level.If Phil is around,any levels on DXY that will show a further drop from in the future?

      • fionamargaret says:

        Kimble’s chart today is querying if bonds are reversing….I just know the sequence for TLT was a buy just shy of 117, which I bought…and will let it run until I make a little more.
        The Chinese are playing with their currency – opposite to Friday last night…they are saying if there is mention of currency manipulation, the Chinese will just let their currency go….
        In that scenario high $, with maybe high gold too??

    • fionamargaret says:

      Bought ABX.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Sold UCO…..SCO is on the verge of breaking out…but shall wait.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Good Luck, my friend…

  6. llerias7 says:

    There is little doubt at this point (at least for me) we entered today in the Minor 4 move. Waves 4 can be annoying and extended in time (A-B-C or triangle – most common). January 23rd seems a good entry point for the minor 5 up move to complete TC´s Int.III on the hourly chart.

  7. captbara says:

    ES 2265 retest the breakout?

  8. Interesting and informative report on the soft commodities cycle, thank you Tony.

  9. njlin says:

    Tony,

    Generally speaking, CAD is positively correlated to WTIC. If WTIC’s low at 26.05 in early 2016 is Primary C low, will it be possible that CAD’s low at 68.2 in early 2016 is Primary C low (i.e. Cycle A low) instead of current Major A low of Primary C? It is confusing that WTIC is in a uptrend but CAD is in a downtrend now.

    • CB says:

      “Generally speaking, CAD is positively correlated to WTIC.” (true)
      “It is confusing that WTIC is in a uptrend but CAD is in a downtrend now” .?…. (it becomes less confusing when you consider that the market is currently pricing in some angst over NAFTA’s fate…)

  10. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…Hello.
    Been reviewing, your “new SPX and NYSE index charts.
    Not sure, I follow why you made these wave count changes.
    After so many years. I am certain, you feel your doing the right thing.
    IE…the NYSE index, and international index, is one point.
    Wish you well, in your program….Bud

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Bud,
      The change was only made to the daily SPX chart, and only this uptrend’s labeling.
      The SPX made new all-time highs back in July. Within 1 month the DOW, NDX, NAZ, and W5K also made new highs. If the NYSE is a broad based US index why did it take until January to make new highs? The Wilshire 5000 is broader based and made new highs with the other US indices.
      The answer is simple. Due to the heavily weighted ADR’s in the NYSE it no longer reflects the US market. It reflects the world market.
      If one reviewed all these charts they all look about the same, and can easily be labeled a 1-2-3-4-5. But this does not work from an OEW perspective. When the waves are quantified the NYSE looks totally different. It looks more like the foreign index that it represents.

  11. cj32 says:

    Cr, CBZ

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Look for reversal near 2285ish tomorrow.

  13. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea
    http://sentimentsignals.blogspot.com/

  14. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  15. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Interested in that “tidbit of data” when/if it becomes discloseable.
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2017-01-08.html

  16. Bud Fox says:

    Nice work, Alex…if possible. The next 94 day cycle,
    is what ? when ? maybe a high ? thanks again….

  17. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is $GBPUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  18. fionamargaret says:

    From my mailbox……..

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=2bfa6199-1011-4c2d-
    a621-5e6457c51ea4&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=3789087e-a33c-43da-9c93-cc295f845c8e&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony….and everyone xx

  19. torehund says:

    Tony, if I understand you right 2336 is where 2s of the lowest order could melt into a P-III.
    A Waterloo event, as it could go both ways at such a junction, I have seen 3s invert before.
    Most pivotal moment in modern history of economics, and we have the front Row.

  20. Irrational Exuberance and extreme complacency with the same people that saw a great case for 2016 to be the crash scenario. You don’t defend 2 models that are diametrically opposed in the same 12 months. Absurd. My method has proven its worth. I ignore silly man mad rules on EW counts since a wave 5 became 3. Stick to micro moves and you will do fine. I have been right for over 7 years now. 2017 will see a 20 percent corrective move, period! Enjoy your to da moon scenario here. I love being on opposite sides of the masses. I have called the connection between fundamental and technical on Macro level as well as anyone could. Can no longer expose my “timing” calls so you will be left with my generic response to all this. Time to make money just giving advise.

    Good luck all. How’s your Russian? Ignore his bizarre stand on friendship with the man that invaded our election. No one seems to connect the man’s past actions with future consequences. Try thinking ahead on all the cause/affect scenarios. China and North Korea should be first on the list. His erratic tweets show his extreme paranoia with a friend or enemy mentality and NEVER backing away from his position, no matter there is zero facts to back it up. He not only ignores the truth but goes after those that reveal it. Work well with other nations? Ya think? You will be amazed at my predictive skills. I mean 100 percent Iron Clad guarantee he is a one man wrecking crew. Have I ever proclaimed such a guarantee? Have I been wrong on macro issues before?

    My pop in’s will not be with market advice I am afraid. Will miss it but hopefully my narrow subscriber audience will appreciate it. It starts February so I will have to have better control of my impulsive nature.

    Mark this POST DOWN for future reference. (The I Told You So post before it even happened).

    • scottycj1 says:

      People here are interested in the markets….so if you are not interested
      in that …..(speaking only for myself)………..I could care less about your political rants. In just a week I’m sick of you. Move on all great one……you and your ego keep moving.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Holly you’ve made some great calls in the last year (i.e. You’ve been bullish). However, trading isn’t about being right every time, it’s about set ups, risk management and consistent execution. You will make a wrong call at some point, nobody has perfect foresight. Opinions aren’t worth that much in this game, so good luck monetising that.

      What’s the basis for a 20% drop starting imminently? It appears your dislike of Trump is clouding your judgement. Moving averages and trend is up. I’m expecting it to turn over this year but price will confirm, no need to front run it.

    • when does the downtrend begin?

    • futuresman says:

      So its all right for our President to interfere with Israel’s elections and making a mess in the Middle East, isn’t that being a hypocrite? As far as hacking goes why didn’t our president do something in his first term when china and Russia and other countries were hacking our governments and businesses?
      Listening to you is like dealing with everyone else in my home state stop crying and get over it your party lost!…I wouldn’t have given my vote for Hillary even when I was a Democrat she is a corrupt politician who lies and steals, remember when Hillary and Bill left the White House…..THEY LOOTED IT ! That’s who you wanted as a President.
      Move on and give our President elect Trump a chance this country voted for a change so except it…..

    • fotis2 says:

      Gary you need to free yourself from the shackles of indoctrination and start thinking for yourself.

      • tommyboys says:

        “Russia” had about as much control over the election as I did. As we know 90% of voting booths/precincts were/are not connected to internet so “hacking cotes impossible. IF Putin had ANYTHING to do with a Trump victory we should all be humbled and thanking him – averted disaster! This is all yet another propaganda/brainwash blitz brought to you by the DNC controll media – with likely a Soros seed – pathetc.

        I’m looking forward to lower taxes, higher productivity due to reduced regulation entanglement, higher real employment, increased tax receipts, massive domestic investment heading BACK to the USA, $2T in repatriated funds, the prosecution and END of the Clinton “Foundation”, upgrade infrastructure, smaller government saving billion$, reduced red tape, substantially reduced fetus mortality, reduced street thug murder, reduced cop killing, boom in entrepreneurship, better relationship with Turkey, Russia, Israel & Middle East & on & on etc…

        Where’s the BAD? What would Hilary have done to make things great??

        It’s ALL GREAT and the best opportunity the US has had in decades – maybe EVER! Sorry won’t be an annoying “ant” again 🤔…

    • phil1247 says:

      Tony

      is there any way i can opt out of these political rants by checking a box in my browser or something?…..

      please !

    • Bud Fox says:

      GARY,,,,interesting. Do you have an “emai list” ????
      If so, ask you place my name on it,to receive.
      bud_67@hotmail.com Thank you…

  21. gary61b says:

    Tony, any thought to the count from 2084 to 2183 as minute 1 and then a sub divided minute 3 to 2282 or when it completes.

    • tony caldaro says:

      it has been mentioned, but have not considered it

    • Richard Glackin says:

      I’m looking at that as well Gary, except that if you count ALL the waves, that run up to 2183 is a 1-2,1-2 in quick succession. Consequently, Wave 3 IS larger than wave 1. That fact would increase the probability of the count significantly.

  22. mcgcapital says:

    Thanks TC, calling this well recently. Short term I’m favouring the minute v scenario with a 5% or so drop coming shortly then higher highs into at least the spring.

    With regards to the long term count, would you be able to label it under OEW should we trade up to say 2400-2500 then dropped below 1800?

    As we all know, in reality any path is possible including moves to SPX 3000 or SPX 1100 over the next few years.

    • tony caldaro says:

      That would make a B wave more than 1.618 times the A wave.
      While nothing is impossible, that is quite improbable

      • mcgcapital says:

        If a recession materialised and we’re still under 2500 then 1800 is still very possible. I’m particularly concerned about China and their huge credit boom, plus EU break up as these are huge potential catalysts.

        If we get to 3000+, then I accept it’s less likely to get under there and could be labelled as major waves 1 and 2.

        The next 6-12 months are key really as we get more clarity on a number of issues. There aren’t many bears out there at the moment and I’m not sure if that’s normal in the early stages of a bull market (if this is P3).

  23. 123 abc says:

    An outstanding weekend update, thank you Tony et al for sharing the excellence of OEW theory.

    Q1: In regards to the short-term daily SPX count, any chance that Minute-ii is still underway as an Irregular Flat?

    Q2: Once the SPX exceeds 2336, will the Primary-v count be eliminated on the NYSE and replaced with the Primary-iii count?




  24. Count me among the optimists.
    Although I also thought last year that SPX would need to revisit the price tops of 2000-2001 and 2007, it didn’t happen.
    Didn’t even get within 200 points
    Lesson learned: U.S. stock market is historically cheap.
    It’s a fool’s errand to fight that.

    Here’s one way of looking at the past 35 years
    History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.

    GLTA

    • Pretty good chart Tom.I’m almost convinced.What about P/E?Any thoughts on gold?Much obliged.

      • I’m with Tony on the $Gold.
        Long term rising treasurys rates + long gold doesn’t work.
        Plus I suspect POTUS Trump will surprise everybody with some frugality.
        He had that TV show, ended every week, “You’re fired!”
        He’s good at that. Some of the stuff is still on youtube.
        Bad backdrop for the Fiat-Currency people/newsletter writers.

        I just have the SPX (long).

    • blackjak100 says:

      Historically cheap??? I have not seen one metric which indicates it’s historically cheap. Either way earnings don’t always matter because stocks can rise or fall with multiple expansion or compression.

      • kvilia says:

        I use this site now purely for amusement purposes. The “historically cheap” comment made my laugh. I suppose that was said about RE in 2005 with conviction. Back then I had my mouth opened. Not now, this would be insulting to step twice on…

  25. Jim B. says:

    Everything that has been written about the growth stage we are entering like the 1950’s makes sense. Merrill technical strategists make the same case. The only thing that gives me a little pause with a major breakout from these levels is valuation. P/E in 1950 was 7. Maybe we get a big correction and then things go to the moon as earnings increase along with price?

    • bfquant says:

      Yup. And interest rates were similarly low. The pickup in growth will have to be massive, ultimately, to justify the early 50s parallel.

      • Pres Elect D. Trump says he will do away with unnecessary regulations.
        ***
        I went to the local grocery store today to buy a small bottle of NyQuil.
        The kind woman at the cash register told me I had to show her my photo-ID Driver’s License to buy NyQuil. I didn’t have it on me. I had left in the car, almost 100 yards away. I had to walk out without the NyQuil.

        I buy wine locally (mostly merlots) all the time.
        Nobody has asked me for an ID in several decades,
        Too much regulation?
        You choose.

        • purplember says:

          Grocery store lady thought you were young looking………….

          • torehund says:

            Sorry its bureaucracy, maybe you have to access your homepage first to access emergency help, retrieve a pin code e.t.c. I was fortunate enough to use a swimming pool in the former Soviet union in the 70s. First you needed a doctor appointment to declare you were disease free, pass numerous unfriendly snappy employees before entering the the pool, walk through concentrated Clorine and then put on a bathing hood. Then you were supervised by another hoard of employees making sure you didnt jump or dive into the pool. They did all this for YOU, for your own safety.
            Full employment, but not a lot of fun.

  26. captbara says:

    To add weight to the primary III count, see the Nikkei. From 2009 to the 2015 top, a possible 5 waves could have been completed whereas in NA, indices look more to have put in 3 waves within that time. The correction into Feb 2016 would have been a PII for the Nikkei and now it too is also in the early stages of PIII.

    However one possibility I’m still siding more at the moment is that any new high or deep retrace for the Nikkei is a B wave. Which would probably translate to a P5 in SPX.

  27. bolderbob says:

    Hi Tony….great update and fascinating too! Thanks very much! Knowing you are also a probability man I was wondering what probability you place on each of the two counts at this time?

  28. blackjak100 says:

    There are a few indicators supporting a P3 rise like the NYAD, a very low VIX so far, and recessionary indicators pointing in wrong direction. However, wasn’t it less than a year ago 1100 was the target? Now, SPX 3000+ is the new target? My point is not to knock OEW because I started with items supporting the OEW count, but to point out things can change very rapidly. With trump in office, I’m betting things will change very rapidly causing the count to change again.

  29. Richard Glackin says:

    Toni, I have an EW question. On the weekly chart, you have three 1-2’s before starting a wave 3. Since the third run up to 2135 was quite large – particularly compared to the first two 1-2’s, what factors influenced your decision to make that a third wave 1 rather than a wave 3? Thanks very much.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Richard,
      I assume you are referring to the 2011 period on.
      It’s simple. The 4th wave cannot overlap the 1st wave.
      Notice the corrections after the second and third rising waves overlapped the previous high.

  30. Thanks Tony for sharing your study of softs and always useful insight.

    I do not view your statement “This limits the upside potential for this uptrend to between SPX: 2279 and 2325” as being bearish. It’s simply a fact of life as Urban Carmel reminds us.

    “Stating the obvious, positive years don’t occur without some drama along the way. In the chart above, every year except one has had an intra-year drawdown of more than 5%, and the average is nearly 15%. Expect 2017 to be no different.

    Similarly, when the market falls, it does so by more than 5% 75% of the time.”

    http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2017/01/weekly-market-summary.html

    In glancing at the data it would appear the mode is around 8% which would mean if we stall around 2300 we should expect a correction that would take us to around 2116, right on a pivot.

    A 5.5% correction, the likely minimum, would take us 2177.

    Obviously, these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

    Among those that I follow, there are concerns (1) VIX will mean revert and (2) the bull/bear spread is approaching levels that foreshadow corrections.

  31. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Always appreciate your technical analyses. As a former newspaper reporter and ongoing newshound, I can’t help but follow present social and political events as part of my market picture. I have this weird feeling that in the Trump era we will witness a schizoid situation, with exuberance for progress caught in the jaws of the unknown–translation, it’s hard for me to picture a strong on-going bull running for the next four or more years. If this were a more normal Republican administration, with the usual tax cuts and other pro-business measures, I could readily expect a continued strong bull. But with the TweeterMaster in the driver’s seat at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, D.C., hold onto your hates, my dudes and dudettes. It’s chicken-plucking time and naked chickens never look pretty.

    • The life changes, the way to communicate with the public fortunately also. Have been reporter on my youth years and can confirm the redactors always wanted biased reports also if weren’t corresponding at the true. So very unethical! The twits are very much welcomes and the changes as well. I am pretty certain we will go for the very best thanks to a politically naive and for this reason clean and strait forward also wealth enough to do not need any personal advantages. All he could have wished to achieve on his life has already been so. That too makes a difference, meaning he will not sell himself for any reasons.

      • bhuggs52 says:

        Francesca, I have to agree with you that Trump has his legacy as a top priority rather than actually creating any real economic change or making more money for us or himself. With that in mind, and his penchant for having a thin skin and little regard for the truth, he will defend his legacy at all costs against anything that makes him look weak or wrong. So it ends up being such a weird balancing act for him. He promises to build a wall that Mexico will pay for as part of his legacy, but then it turns out, the American taxpayer will pay for it and we will only hope that Mexico pays us back. Also, he goes to war with our national “Intelligence Agencies” over their report on Russian hacking. What a strange moment, that to defend his election, he denies the hacking even existed because it makes his election look less genuine. Or he blames the Democrats, the victims, for the hacking. Wow! My overall hit as we go forward, the truth will be the largest casualty of his administration, and without truth as a basis for fundamental policy, our financial markets more often then not will be left facing unknowns and uncertainty–which as we know is not a recipe for growth. I just don’t have a solid feeling under my feet any more over what is to come…unless of course, Trump is just a figurehead and he has some Republican cronies in the backroom actually conducting the business of the White House. But who knows at this point.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Actually am expecting a bear market before his term ends.
      Sometime between 2018-2020

      • bhuggs52 says:

        Tony, would expect the same myself, both from a technical and fundamental standpoint.

          • Just so I understand what you’re saying here…it’s possible for a wave of Major degree to give a bear market confirmation? I was skeptical of your PII being a confirmed bear, since it a drop of less than 20%, along with other factors, but now a Major wave degree can confirm a bear as well? It’s been almost a year and you still haven’t put a Major 1 on the daily chart, and by that count, we may not see a Major 1 label for another year or more…are you sure about these current wave degrees?

            • tony caldaro says:

              Most have adjusted to recent times when mostly Primary waves of some degree were unfolding. But in the past, and you can check this with any reputable EW guy, Major waves, and even some Intermediate waves, created bear markets. Historical major wave bears: 1953, 1962, 1984 and 1987.

      • Which means you think your big wave III will be half as long as your wave I from 2009 to 2016. That alone should make one skeptical of the current count.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      I recommend divorcing yourself from your political views and trade what’s in front of you. You can hate yourself and love your trading acct at the same time (:

  32. GM Mr C.If we are comparing now to last February’s 1810-2111 advance on a time basis,we’re getting pretty close.This should be a huge up week in that case to wrap it up?Post Fed weeks have been very bullish the last six months.Thanks for the hard work.Do you do most of this yourself?

  33. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.
    Can you please do Dollar Index report.

  34. stormchaser80llc says:

    The new All Time High we have been consistently calling for was put in today. What’s Next?

    If you like posts like this, you can sign up for a FREE login at the end of my blog post to read posts like these on a daily basis.

    I believe we had a good week. I have been warning bulls that a downtrend is about to start, even before losses early yesterday. And to Bears I have been warning to wait for a better price to short. These views are consistent with my legacy signals which have been saying to be neutral for the past couple of weeks. The SHORT signal went to YES last Friday, but has since backed off. Still have this in the back of my mind while looking at the charts.

    The charts make complete sense now that SPX hit that ATH I have been saying we need based on technicals on the Daily chart. With today’s new high, I also see negative divergences vs. the highs on Wednesday afternoon. This could very well be it for the uptrend. But I also opine that perhaps we make 1 more run to the yellow extension line of the Sept-Oct triangle that currently sits well into the 2280s. $VIX for sure looks ready to reverse higher with positive divergences put in at today’s lows along with a potential MACD BUY on the hourly chart early next week.

    Market Breath and Internals, with today’s new all time high, show steep negative divergences across the board compared to the early December high. Everything looks ripe for the bears. The 2 things that make me a little less sure that the high is in, is the yellow line discussed earlier, and the fact that my proprietary Technicals Model improved today. I would like to see it weaken with the final high. Finally, I show how with today’s new high, a steep negative divergence has been put in vs. the Technicals Model.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  35. Millan Tomic says:

    Most surprising scenario: short term very bearish and medium term very bullish. Quite interesting January shaping up

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/WzWz5bVb-SPX-Bullish-Blow-Off-Scenario-Jan-2017/

  36. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. If minor 3 had now ended what would be the targets for minor 4?

  37. Hugh Jazole says:

    This helped me put earnings in perspective.

    • tommyboys says:

      Just FYI – PE ratios are about the single worst indicator of bull tops or bear lows – almost zero correlation.

  38. micky says:

    Awesome Tony, thanks.

  39. alexh110 says:

    I’m inclined towards your more bearish count Tony, because it fits neatly into the 94 Trading Day cycle that’s been in the market for over a year now.
    That would imply an uptrend high this coming Friday, followed by a correction lasting nearly 10 weeks.

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