Friday update

SHORT TERM: new all-time highs, DOW +65

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported lower: 156K v 178K, unemployment was reported higher: 4.7% v 4.6%, and the trade deficit was reported wider: -$45.2B v -$42.6B. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2269 close, immediately pulled back to 2264, and then started rising again. At 10am factory orders were reported lower: -2.4% v 2.7%. Around noon the SPX made a new all-time high and hit 2282 by 12:30. Then the market drifted lower to end the week at SPX 2277.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 62.0% v 61.8%, and the Q4 GDP estimate was raised to 2.9% v 2.5%.

The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back, then rallied to new all-time highs. The DOW even hit 20K (19,999.63) but did not cross it. After reviewing several possible short terms count, while trying to hone in on this bull market’s characteristics, we have narrowed it down to two possible scenarios. We will disclose these two short term scenarios, eliminate some potential nagging long term scenarios, and offer a long term cyclical view of Soft commodities. Been putting this report together for several days. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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27 Responses to Friday update

  1. micky says:

    I have a max target of 2780 for the bull atm, with some big bumps at 2320,2420 etc on the way .Not exact figures but areas off course .We have quite a few ones and twos with plenty of threes fours and fives to come.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Micky, it is good for my psyche to have another believer in these higher figures….well, that is what the sequences say…..but it is still nice to have you agree.
      I did think we would have a pullback round about now, when the price point of UVXY reached 6.5…guess I will find out tomorrow when Tony discusses what’s up with the waves
      I did manage to work out the posting of stuff on my updated computer, so if you would like me to go through it with you….this time it is slightly different….but totally easy peasy…x

    • naris1 says:

      There are few certainties in life. Death, Taxes and the fact that Republicans will not pay down the debt but will surely increase it. So from that perspective we are good to go for at least a few more years. Maybe not so good for the grandkids.

      • bfquant says:

        Humans have inflated their way through debt in some way or another since antiquity, and the grandkids have almost always been better off than the grandparents.

        • Tom McClean doesthe not understand the accounting of an economy households an businesses are net savers by default a government should run deficits online with this savings to get to full employment most fiscal deficits occur when households and businesses are forced to abruptly save due to the popping of an asset bubble and downturn resulting in lower tax take and an increase unemployment benefits. The arguments against government deficits are mainly political beliefs not empirical truth.

      • futuresman says:

        Naris I think you got your facts wrong, President Obama created more debt than all presidents combined…..

  2. Ajay Singhi says:

    Posted few days ago: Buy SPX at 2212, tgt 2289. It seems to have turned back from 2233. Those who are short should add aggressively at 2305(if that comes in the next 2-3 days),target 2209.

  3. COT chart on gold shows increasing open interest,similar to early last year,from a low level.That’s all folks.

  4. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – breakout (1/6/17)
    IF the 1st week’s up candle is a small-degree breakout, the post-election rally likely ends with this small degree advance.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/01/mtu-weekend-ed-breakout-1617-close.html

  5. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Looking forward to the W/E report. Have nice weekend.

  6. Thanks Tony. Your counts have been nuts on and yesterday’s pullback set this up as the 1.62 extension was within a 1/2 point of today’s high. https://www.tradingview.com/x/VktChDXJ/

  7. futuresman says:

    Thanks Tony for your blog and Happy New Year to all….I’m a long term trader and the last time I wrote was back in April I had targets for emini sp, gold and oil….my targets were met for emini sp and gold I’m still long emini sp and short gold and long crude oil it just hasn’t made my target yet but I do believe it will get their….
    What I want to get at is I was a Democrat for over 30 years because my union required it and I live in 1 of the most Democratic states in the country Ma…..But in President Obamas 2nd term I could no longer be, he divided this country and allowed it to become a free for all…This has caused havoc among family members and friends they are so nieve because every news station and news papers are reporting all the left wing propaganda that everyone seems to believe…..WAKE UP AMERICA !!!!…If you want free and balanced news Watch Fox news and then maybe you’ll come to reality…
    And for those who are wishing for the stock market crash look at the charts do they look like a Bear to you!!!!!
    I’m not here to hurt any ones feelings but grow up!!!
    My long term target for emini sp is 2700…..you can all laugh ha ha….I will trade it as I see it..
    Have a great weekend everyone!!!!

  8. bud67 says:

    Tony…Enjoy the weekend. Should be a good 2017.

  9. bfquant says:

    Looking forward to it Tony. The “Softs”. Can’t wait to hear what you have to say. Hopefully these include will include corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee, cocoa, cotton…

  10. EL MATADOR says:

    Thx Tony…They just had to tease us but didn’t let go of the candy :-). Looking forward on your soft commodities WU. seeing lot of bottoming formations on lot of softies. we should see some huge gains if one is willing to stomach the daily noise.

  11. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW updates.


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