SHORT TERM: new all-time highs, DOW +65
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported lower: 156K v 178K, unemployment was reported higher: 4.7% v 4.6%, and the trade deficit was reported wider: -$45.2B v -$42.6B. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2269 close, immediately pulled back to 2264, and then started rising again. At 10am factory orders were reported lower: -2.4% v 2.7%. Around noon the SPX made a new all-time high and hit 2282 by 12:30. Then the market drifted lower to end the week at SPX 2277.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 62.0% v 61.8%, and the Q4 GDP estimate was raised to 2.9% v 2.5%.
The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back, then rallied to new all-time highs. The DOW even hit 20K (19,999.63) but did not cross it. After reviewing several possible short terms count, while trying to hone in on this bull market’s characteristics, we have narrowed it down to two possible scenarios. We will disclose these two short term scenarios, eliminate some potential nagging long term scenarios, and offer a long term cyclical view of Soft commodities. Been putting this report together for several days. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend