Thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback/consolidation day, DOW -43

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but ended flat. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported lower: 153K v 216K, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported near 1973 lows: 235K v 265K. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2271 close, bounced up to 2272 just past 10am, then headed lower. At 10am ISM services was reported unchanged at 57.2. The pullback found support at SPX 2260 around 11:30. Then the market started to work its way higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2270, then dipped to close at 2269.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds rallied 25 ticks, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold jumped $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 180K) and the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced to slightly positive, then slid back to SPX 2260. After that it rallied, and closed slightly negative on the day. After reaching quite overbought yesterday today’s pullback dropped short term momentum to nearly oversold.Β This looks like a normal reset. Thus far we are observing three waves up from last week’s SPX 2234 low: 2264-2245-2273. Today’s pullback might a subdivision of the third wave. Again today, just like Tuesday, selling in the SPX occurred in unison with a quick decline in Crude. Then when Crude stabilized/recovered the SPX recovered too. We are also noticing this week the NDX/NAZ are leading and the DOW is lagging. This is what has occurred for several years, with the exception of the two month rally after the Trump election. Short term support is now at SPX 2260 and 2245, with resistance at the stubborn 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your 2017 trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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144 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    3rd of 3rd of 3rds confirmed based on proprietary Caldaro blog commenter signal. No ED.

  2. bud67 says:

    have a great weekend, all.
    thanks, Tony…

  3. captbara says:

    They are saving Dow 20k for Monday.

    1 + 9 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 7 = 20

  4. kvilia says:

    OK, clueless laughers – if what I just heard about US preparing for war to save a petrodollar true, this a) will be devastating to the human society and b) will at least double price of gold.
    And yes, please don’t forget to stay long in equities because that’s what you want to hear, right?

    • NEWBIE says:

      I have never felt more comfortable with my short position. Ignorance is bliss out there. Additionally, SILVER is going to go to da moon.

      • bud67 says:

        Being a bit old fashion – the OBV indication does not support
        such a bullish call for SLV….that said. Your decision maybe right,
        always yours to chose.

  5. scottycj1 says:

    Wave 4 does not overlap wave 1


  6. EL MATADOR says:

    DOW closing above 20K….any takers? I say yes, why the hell not

  7. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Lacker (non-voter)is hawkish.
    Evans (voting member)not so much.Cautious.
    Heckuva -div on daily GDX wasn’t it?5% down in one day.Got down to 22.02 by my screen.22.01 was the gap number I had.Close enough?See where it goes from here.Rally…or down to the 50d.A rally here would be excellent.Good luck all.

    • Dex T says:

      Interest rates are definitely going up this year. And the market is expecting it.

      Trump is going to appoint 2 more members to the board. All of the candidates being considered are in favor of higher rates.

      Equities aside people had better be very careful with real estate.

  8. Dex T says:

    Fed minutes: Officials were moved by Trump win before December hike

    “Federal Reserve officials in December approved their first interest rate hike in a year based in large part on market reactions to the presidential election and the anticipation of aggressive fiscal policy ahead, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday. ”

    • Dex T says:

      So basically all of the economic data that they claim to have “reviewed” was complete bullshit. They sat around for empty meetings and decided to raise because Trump won.

      What a joke the Fed is. An army of bureaucrats being paid to do nothing. Thankfully Trump was elected.

      • purplember says:

        in other words, Obama policies weren’t good for the economy so FED intervened. Trump policies are taking shackles off the economy so FED can raise rates and not shoulder the burden.

        • NEWBIE says:

          Trump is anti fed, he wants them audited. Their goosing of the markets is coming to an end and they may even crash this pig before he gets in to try and pressure him to follow their agenda “or else”

  9. phil1247 says:

    TLT/ /ZB

    initial target hit

    taking profits on TBT unless bonds collapse thru target pronto !

  10. torehund says:

    LOL,market rejuvenated into late hours, fueled by pessimism.

  11. EL MATADOR says:

    There is a nice channel from today’s LOD. this bad boy is still subdividing and it’s not done yet…. don’t leave $$$ on the table that is free for the taking…just saying

  12. scottycj1 says:

    I count 5 waves up…..geomagnetic model says we correct for the next 3 to 4 trading days. Liquidating short term longs.

  13. micky says:

    not done accurately, but we almost did 1,5 times the size of the correction that ended in feb last year.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Gotta short the DOW here. We touched 20000

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    lets just get the 20k print so people can shut the F up sooner rather than later

  16. phil1247 says:

    raised stops way up

    all in upro

  17. EL MATADOR says:

    Tony 2270 pivot in rear view mirror, 2286 pivot is next road intersection.
    and Dixie Chicks were right after all, Let’er Rip πŸ˜‰

  18. micky says:

    HNY all, the “top is in crowd” running for the hills lol

    • NEWBIE says:

      Micky, everything is going as planned. Top out here between now and 2300 and market drops like hell going forward. However the masses will be buying dips for the next 500 points down thinking that there is one more primary wave up to 2500.The irony is we will see 1500 before 2500.Just my thoughts based on my wave count.

      • micky says:

        Newbie, YOUR count ? Im sorry my friend that I don’t believe you can count . Any case Tony already provided a roadmap. The big bucks is made by trading in the direction of the main trend and not my making funny calls year in and year out and reading and watching all the crap out there. There will be enough time to get on the bear trend when it happens.

  19. bud67 says:

    ” Instead of β€œDow 20K”, how about β€œDebt 20T”? It may be just a fun numerical coincidence that the DJIA is approaching 20,000 while the total federal debt is approaching $20 trillion, but there it is anyway. “…..scalped this quote. Seems appropreiate

  20. captbara says:

    At the upper BB now. Interesting that NYMO is down today.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Agree, and minute v does not look impulsive and showing many divergences you want to see in a fifth wave. If an ED is forming, wave 1/A should complete very shortly as it’s made a new ATH now.

      • captbara says:

        Not an endorsement of shorting, just an observation!

        If it’s the long awaited 3rd of many 3rds then it will slowly ride the upper BB.

  21. NEWBIE says:

    Market is topping, DOW cant even hit 20,000.

  22. bud67 says:

    GDX for a trade looks attractive at, 21.60-20.20 range….

  23. gary61b says:

    ES, if that was C ending 2273.75 and now D starting looking for a 67 level to end, then E up….

  24. Page says:

    Gold/Miners selling is about to end, reversal is imminent.

  25. mcgcapital says:

    Any higher and I’m out of shorts. Only 10 FTSE points offside but it feels like an inflection point.

  26. fotis2 says:

    Took usd/jpy 15 days to go to 115 and 15 hours to reclaim 60% of the move says something about the Dollar.Why do i always have too little when im right and too much when wrong…

  27. phil1247 says:

    2274 esh7 is coming up quick

    ready to take chips off if we dont blast thru target

  28. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Big gap at 22.01 ready to be filled on GdX.

  29. phil1247 says:

    buckle up …..

    bot more TBT and UPRO

  30. EL MATADOR says:

    From 2277.53 SPX ath, anyone else seeing the potential horizontal expanding triangle?
    This uptrend would be wave d targeting 2278-2288 SPX……hence meaning minute iv still ongoing

  31. torehund says:

    Not a whole lot going on today, so this post goes to all of you, happy weekend πŸ™‚

  32. iamwhoiis says:

    Whichever direction we’re headed, the market sure looks like it is going to blast off any second now…

  33. reddragonleo says:

    ES Morning Update January 6th, 2017 –

    Broke that rising wedge just after I finished the update… LOL

  34. phil1247 says:

    dollar short squeeze brewing

    gold traded extension short again

    ? correllations

  35. alexhartley1 says:

    Morning Tony. I note that the JPY isn’t breaking that resistance level marked on your charts and the DXY has turned down a little having not been able to substantially break the 104 level you’ve indicated before. This could of course be more consolidation but at what level on the DXY please would you start to believe that we may have seen a top for the USD? Also how would you count the JPY chart? The Primary A bottom would instead have been a C and we’re already in a new JPY bull? For now 120 is still the target on DXY I guess. Thank you in advance.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      Perhaps more of a trading range this year before the final push down in 2018?

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I get the sense the USD which has been rising with the stock market a little is sensing perhaps a short – medium term top in the equity market which you’ve indicated maybe coming soon (Trump inauguration for e.g.) and is front running this a little. Perhaps needs to take a breather for a couple of months into March maybe before things (stock market, USD and cryptos) turn back up. Speculation of course but that’s how I feel.

    • tony caldaro says:

      USD has been rising and Yen declining for 5 months.
      Lots of divergences suggesting a reversal.
      Would label the Yen decline as Major A, not Primary C

  36. jobjas says:

    SPX big picture

  37. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Moe Evans,Larry Lacker and Curly Kaplan speak tomorrow.If I had known that earlier, I would have said “Nyuk Nyuk” and sold some GDX.That’s why gold was rallying the last few days…no Fed Stooges trying to sound intelligent.
    “Why if they had a brain,they’d be dangerous.”
    “Every time you think,you weaken the nation.”
    –Famous Stooge lines applicable here.

  38. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  39. stormchaser80llc says:

    If you read my post yesterday, things went fine today. As I said, bulls should be getting nervous here. And bears need to wait for a new SPX ATH before shorting. This is because SPX Daily requires a new high. On SPX hourly, the market was close to getting oversold at today’s lows, just what we needed to launch to a new high. With a new SPX high, negative divergences would be put in for the market, and positive divergences for $VIX. Also a strong negative divergence would form on my proprietary Technicals Model. Looking forward to breaking through 2270 which we have been flirting with since December 12th, 2016 in order to make the new highs. Bulls would be feeling great at just the wrong time. Bears should spend this time getting ready to short.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      So SPX loses 30%,but miners only lose 20%,Chris?Those kinds of charts are very cryptic. But we’ll see.Fiona,I didn’t think you’d have time to post anything,with all the NUGT and JNUG profits you had to count today…lol.Good day wasn’t it?

      • fionamargaret says:

        NUGT suggests 20, JNUG has to get past 9 to really fly, TMF is doing well, and the crows….well…
        UVXY is a buy….it can’t be peaceful forever, can it…

        • kvilia says:

          Fiona, if NUGT makes 20, it will make 40. UVXY can be buy at 5, too – this is POS, period.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Learned gives really detailed work on gold and miners…my ideas are based on momentum, sequencing and probabilities…
            Of course UVXY could go to 5, but at 6.5 the probabilities suggest higher …
            I think NG is going down at the moment, while everybody suggests up….
            I like the look of JPNL, and think it could go quite a bit higher…..
            I prefer JNUG to NUGT, based again on sequencing and momentum…
            This is all short term.

    • bud67 says:

      Yes, I enjoyed that music…:)

  40. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: After yesterday’s double short-term cycle bottom and subequent consolidation, the market wants to go up. Strong buy signals on Rut (hourly futures) –

  41. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Okay,get ready for a GDX pullback to 20.51(20d sma)or 21.63 (50d sma)I’ll add a little to each.Still only targeting 24.50 to 25.Lots of print today that this will go to the moon because sentiment is still at 25%.I’m going with a standard 40%,+div rally on the weekly GDX unless the crows are captured above 25.60.Good luck all.

  42. bud67 says:

    OEW produces some of the best,US stock market charts around.
    But – the NYSE A/D line chart, is looking a bit frothy, for my money.
    Now, granted the NY A/D line most often crests, prior to the cash
    index. Yet, the OEW A/D line, has a high risk signal to it. IMO…

  43. phil1247 says:


    can we hit the extension long target at 2289 ?

    bought near 2256 just after noon
    …..probably going to dump half before 8 pm

  44. bfquant says:

    TC. The move in the nasdaq since the Fall lows doesn’t look that impulsive to me. Is it nesting?

    • tony caldaro says:

      NDX pelted with the Trump effect – sell growth, buy cyclicals
      NAZ looks a lot cleaner.

      • bfquant says:

        it does look cleaner. Not as much “old glamour” drag via FB, AMZN, etc. But it, too, seems to have quite a bit of overlapping waves. Wouldn’t more overlaps decrease the probability that it is either nesting or subdividing? Conversely, if it truly is subdividing, then it might imply an explosive move higher?

  45. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $NATGAS at

  46. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    ES has been playing ping pong with short term trend lines (Chart 1). It may take a gap to breakout free. Meanwhile, SPX presents a potential small wedge if it were to gap up(Chart 2).

  47. EL MATADOR says:

    Thanks Tony, Dixie Chicks think we should


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