Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening starts 2017, DOW +119

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3% as well. US index futures were much higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2256. The SPX had closed at 2239 on Friday. At 10am Construction spending was reported higher: 0.9% v 0.5%, and the ISM was reported higher: 54.7 v 53.2. Soon after 10am the SPX hit 2264 and then started to pullback. The pullback seemed to follow Crude oil lower, after that commodity had hit an 18-month high. At 11:30 the SPX hit 2245 and seemed to stabilize. Heading into the afternoon the market started to drift higher. Then rallied in the last hour of trading to end the day at SPX 2258.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.90%. Bonds lostΒ 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold ralliedΒ $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: auto sales, and then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since Monday Dec. 5th. Which was around the beginning of Minute wave iii.Β Minute wave i of this uptrend, also started right after a Monday gap up opening. Minute v underway? After a rally to SPX 2264 the market dropped to 2245. Then a rally into the close ended the first trading day of 2017 on a positive note. Should the market move higher again tomorrow Minute v can very well be underway. Short term support is at SPX 2248 and SPX 2234, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought after Friday’s positive divergence and ended there. Best to your 2017 trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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126 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    Tony, why DXY is correcting so much?

  2. scottycj1 says:

    SPX breaking out over the bull flag…..Rut about to hit new highs along with the Dow. Today is the last day of Negative Pressure on my new Geomagnetic Model…turns to Positive Pressure tomorrow.
    Things should get moving good now.

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Gandalf may have moved to 1387 area in R2K. I love this market. SPX and DOW nowhere near as strong. Last time that happened after election there was some very big moves to the upside.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    FED minutes reveal members are nervous about inflation risks particularly due to Trump’s future policies and that they may have to raise more quickly than originally anticipated but that’s good news now. LMAO

    • captbara says:

      Rate hike is good news. Was saying this last year.

      In other news, real news is fake news and fake news is real news. And the good guys are the bad guys and the bad guys are the good guys.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Always pay attention to what they do, not what they say.
        Also, always pay attention to the first reports after a news event, not the massaged version released hours later.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          here is in in the most simplest terms.

          Right now – very little risk to anyone’s outlook so no risk matters much. When they decide it matters then it will be priced. The whole time the risk is there.

  5. scottycj1 says:

    If and when the SPX busts thru 2325….we are going to have all the EW’ers covering and going long. Then you have the liquidated bond proceeds ready to go—Disinflate one balloon —reflate another. We are breaking out higher after a lengthy consolidation…….prices are going up….then we get the public coming back……….with the hope of animal spirits the TrumpStockExpress is in full swing. Wonder if his kids hold any stock ? Who wrote this screen play ???……awesome.

  6. torehund says:

    ..when mainstream go all in schizoo, buy stocks πŸ™‚ Heck did they tap phones back in 1973 too ? Better find a shelter for all these nukes πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  7. pooch77 says:

    A correction should start between 2nd and 3rd week of January

  8. vivelaamo says:

    I’ve closed most my R2K longs now. Santa made me sweat but came good in the end although a little late. Would love a newbie style drop for chances to buy the correction but at the most it will prob be small dips. Time to sit back and wait for another opportunity now. All the best bulls and bears alike.

  9. captbara says:

    Seems like everyone is on this 5th wave up over 2277 count now. I guess it’s probably a nested 1-2 like NAS shows more clearly then. NAS overlaps wave 1 where ES does not.

  10. NEWBIE says:

    This market is weak. Party’s over, market is gonna drop like a drop within the next 10 spx points.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Wave 4 at 2233 now wave 5 to end bull market.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Agree we’re about to have a long over due correction.. but unlikely the bull market is over. Too many bulls ready to buy on dips and moving averages strongly positive. Should likely see a pick up in volatility and a weakening in momentum and breadth before the long term trend turns lower. And that probably means higher highs in price this year before we get the big one

        • vivelaamo says:

          Do you really think sensible logic and reason will make sense to a guy praying for a crash?

          • NEWBIE says:

            Viv, I put a wave count out there, this has nothing to do with praying.

            • vivelaamo says:

              Then you know a wave 5 can go higher than another 10 points.

            • chrisk44342 says:

              any wave count can end at any time because it’s fairly subjective. So in the end, you have an opinion, and you know what they say about those. Everyone’s got one. To be fair, Tony has an opinion as well. It’s just that he’s been mostly right (on a long term basis) and you haven’t. At some point you have to just start looking at moving averages, etc. to come up with something better than a wave count as going by your opinion alone has cost you big time, hasn’t it?

              • NEWBIE says:

                chrisk, your comment was a waste of everyone’s time including your own. We are here to share market ideas, thoughts, wave counts, analysis etc. I shared my wave count, is that any reason for you to attack me?

              • chrisk44342 says:

                Not an attack. I have nothing against you. It’s a statement of fact. You have been bearish as long as I have been visiting TC’s blog, and that’s clearly been wrong-sided from a trading or investment perspective.

            • pooch77 says:

              Say 2 Our Fathers and 3 Hail Marys

        • fionamargaret says:

          I don’t think mainstream are in yet, and that makes for a wall of money later on..
          I think we correct shortly, and we need corrections to get the spirits involved….

          • Dex T says:


            You’re assuming mainstream/middle class actually have funds to invest which most don’t. They have been badly hurt by the last recession and never recovered.

            Wall street keeps waiting for the barely existent retail investor while the market continues to move via central banks, hedge funds, and stock buybacks.

    • fotis2 says:

      Just a tip am by no means good at counting waves or anything else for that matter as regards trading 50/50 I strive for and 40/60 is what I mostly get however keeping things simple and with some luck I use the following rule of thumb:Daily chart… if price is trading at the top halve long trades only if price at bottom halve short trades you will be amazed how much uncertainty it filters out.

  11. torehund says:

    $Btk is doing something for the Bulls πŸ™‚

  12. Richard Glackin says:

    On the ES, Wave 1 was about 80 pts, if wave 5 = wave 1 then that should put us right about 2308 to finish this run up. On the other hand if wave 5 = 0.618 of wave 1 then we’d have a shorter wave 5 ending around 2277. Again, that’s ES. We should have a much better handle on the end point as we watch the conclusion of waves 3 and 4 of 5. On the other hand, if wave 5 turns out to be an ‘abc’, and the current ‘c’ wave ends with an internal wave 5 spiking up into the 2270’s that could be it. So, be careful out there.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Did Newbie post a dancing bear or something?

  14. Dex T says:


    If you expect that the end is nigh… and the world is doomed with a Trump presidency… then why bother worrying about the S&P, gold, oil prices, geopolitics,, etc… and why start a subscription site???

    These are the last few weeks before the nuclear holocaust so…don’t you have anything better to do?

  15. The PPT have become the RPT, Roof Protection Team. Are working hard.

  16. fbqueen3 says:

    Tony how many S&P points should wave v of iii be approximately.
    Thank you.

  17. fionamargaret says:

    Carl Futia.
    A couple of days before Christmas Tony and I worked out 23,000 for the DJIA, and around 2600 for SPX…seemed crazy a few months ago, but becoming more popular now….it is that until it is not..

    • Futia’s primary reason for an equity bull,he says,”is that markets are well above the 200d moving average.”Statements like that,and rationalizations about a bull market continuing ad infinitum,give a feeling of too much comfort.Gold was well above its 200d in July (and he was bullish). $250 later to the downside–and now he’s bearish.
      It is until it isn’t in otherwords.
      Gold would take a step ahead by finishing above 1165 today.All the various resistance levels still apply on GDX.22.50,24.60,25.60.Support around 20.30 (20d sma).Good luck all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        To be fair to Tony, it could be suggested I was leading him, but nevertheless, I have another question.
        Tony, if UCO suggests 19, what is the suggested price for oil??

        • tony caldaro says:

          Fiona, the fact is I did not make those projections.
          You quoted a price on some leveraged ETFs.
          I simply calculated the approximate value the cash index would need to reach to achieve those targets.
          UCO unfortunately is not easily calculated.

          • fionamargaret says:

            You are a real sport for trying…
            You were given a set criteria from which to give an answer, which is why I felt I had to explain…..thanks Tony. x

      • fionamargaret says:

        The miners look good today….at least JNUG is fluffing itself…
        UVXY suggests 6.6 as a buy, so perhaps the S&P relaxes when that point is reached…

  18. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article57718.html
    Nadeems wildest prediction yet—Trump poisoned by CIA in 2019.

    • Dex T says:

      It’s not going to happen. These rumors have been running since Trump first announced his Presidency. Trump won the military vote and is fairly popular with most law enforcement from independent polls I’ve seen.

      • Dex T says:

        Also, what I find particularly amusing is the idea being spread that Trump would step aside- for some reason and have Pence assume the presidency.

        Pence is more conservative than Trump and has the knowledge to take the reigns and push the policies through immediately. Even if Trump leaves his agenda certainly isn’t going to collapse. His cabinet is full of ideological conservatives who are going to be running the country independent from Trump.

        Why liberals find this idea more comforting is beyond me.

        • I remember the story the Kasich told.He said Trump offered him the Veep spot AND basically full control over the country,Trump being a Wizard of Oz type figurehead.I could see Trump not being interested in day to day politics–his enjoyment was running and winning.Pence may be the same type of VP.
          That’s one possibillity.The other is,Trump gets into it and becomes troublesome–as Nadeem proposes.4th turning confirmed if Trump is a casualty.

          • Dex T says:

            It’s expected that Pence and the cabinet will. Trump can be erratic but is a pragmatist in many ways and listens to reason and facts.

            Trump was mainly a mouthpiece. He used his celebrity status, notoriety, wealth and oratory/entertainment skills to help win the presidency and the hardcore supporters will administer the country and handle the details.

            Trump can be troublesome but has plenty of avenues to direct his anger on- the media, ISIS, the Democrats, etc…

  19. Still looks like wave 4 of Minute 3 just ended and wave 5 of Minute 3 starting…

  20. One big, very big roll. Top might be in this Friday 2230-35. The 13th the latest. Dollar also in line for a top at 105 as I mentioned many MONTHS ago. 10 year note is way behind data but that too should hit close to 3 percent this month. Will be forces to stop my comments on market behavior after my own service starts in February.

    My long standing prediction of economic acceleration is here and with it major transitional problems for corporate profits. Trade War and alienation of our old long established allies once TRUMP aligns with Russia, Turkey, and Iran will set stage for wave 4 drop. Gutless Repuks did it again and tried to repeal ethics rules in the wee dark hours of new year. Trump will have complete control with these clowns. As dangerous as it can get. But no one believed me a year ago and they still think I am irrational and naΓ―ve. Still give chance for a nuclear conflict at 25 percent within his 4 year term. Will wait for the trade wars to start before reassessing.

    • scottycj1 says:

      So the markets going DOWN to 2230–35 to make a top…..people are going to have to pay for this ? I published a nightly letter for 4 years. I’m guessing your going to have to do better than this.

      • Match my calls against ANYONES in 2016. I mean anyone’s. I was asked to start a paid subscription with a “closed” clientele list. Put zero money of my own into this. if it works great. if not I can walk away as per my contract. Not going to post any details of bets from February on. My record speaks for itself. I have years of recoverable posts on a site so it becomes impossible to fake the past.

        As for anyone actually STILL believing in TRUMP you have to have blinders on not to see just how dangerous he is. Denial will last till it hits YOUR pocketbook. Does anyone understand how Hitler came into power? Our emotional makeup is exactly the same even as technological advances leaped forward. I marvel at human’s capacity to delude themselves when we always look back at those times and wonder how it was even possible. An alliance with Russia Turkey and Iran would be the ultimate test. if you can accept the rationale you can accept anything. Just remember that I stated here this very fact. Anyone not able to SEE THRU TRUMP can’t possibly understand the market and where we are going. BTW Hillary was NOT my choice. Any Republican or third party candidate would not change the world dynamics other than this unstable irrational nut case. Try explaining his rational over RUSSIA. Just think it out and post your answer. BTW, trade war is inevitable and most likely in first half of this year.

        Good Luck All for you will need it going forward.

        • scottycj1 says:

          Seems your OCD…..I would be hesitant to follow anything you say. Your highly emotional.
          Not something I look for in any type of advisor. Get a grip.

          • FACT: Trumps wants alliance with Russia, Iran, Turkey. he stated so. Believes Putin is a great man. Stated so. Wants ALL sanctions lifted against Russia. States so in public forum. Wants to do away with NUKE TREATY and place them closer to target and with latest technology for fast response. ALL undisputed remarks. ALL. Made enemy of China even before he took office. Believes all Muslims are dangerous. if you can’t connect the dots you certainly can’t understand what will happen going forward in the market. takes some semblance of intelligence to be able to think beyond your daily grind. Me on the other hand have already proven my worth and understanding of markets. Ask anyone that followed my bets for the year to dispute that claim. I mean major reversal calls when the market looked to be tanking. But hey, you can live in a fantasy land that dismisses the irrational tenacious pit bull mentality of Trump and come to the conclusion its all good. that’s how I make money on people like you. good luck with your shock over Trumps behavior in the future because you will be shocked.

            My Last Post so you don’t have to endure my “emotional” outbursts. I guess trade wars and political upheaval he is sure to display means nothing in the age of total annihilation. Silly me to even bring such an absurd possible conclusion up. Like my absurd notion that at end of last year I stated unequivocally that the consumer health was strongest it’s been for a decade. How did I do? You all were absolutely determined to see Wave 5 and the crash. I mean almost every one. I guess we dismiss our failed mistakes, never learn from it, and continue to use same mechanism for the future. Kind of silly if you ask me.

            My macro view for over 7 years is intact yet you put my concerns as silly? Silly to be emotional over a madman as commander in chief? Silly NOT TO.

            • NEWBIE says:

              Gary, Please share your wave count and or spx targets.

              • bud67 says:

                Have to agree with “Newbie”…..and while. The news of the day, politics, etc
                do have their place. OEW, is best served, as a place of investment analysis
                and discussion. Gary, I do not disagree with your comments,nor your right to
                make them. Just best, for poor folks like me. Who, come to read investing views,
                timing, etc…Gary, I enjoy your investment comments, do continue sharing
                your investing ideas. I for one, need them…..end

            • stcoleridge says:

              So he believes all muslims are dangerous but wants to ally with Iran?

        • joecthetruthteller says:

          Gary, why are you are still crying?

          • tony caldaro says:

            we were discussing those tactics only yesterday in the forum

          • Boom&Bust says:

            What a joke…Joecthetruthteller posting fake news. I would trust the Post over this rag all of the time. “Corrupt mainstream medie nailed!”.. Why don’t you buy a cabin in the middle of nowhere, load up with ammo and guns and become a prepper!

    • http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-intel-brief-on-so-called-russia-hacking-delayed/article/2610817#!

      Darn IT! He has “delayed” his top secret revelation on why Russia was NOT behind hacking till Friday at the earliest. Perhaps he is asking Putin to give him the proper wording and slant. After all he is the master of all deceptions. Does Make America great Again mean we align with all ruthless dictators to do so? The Russia, Turkey, Iran PACT will definitely be in place within his 100 days in office. Right after he takes all executive action against Russia off. A Trump alternate universe where we revisit the 50’s when we were the industrial envy of the world and white men were in power. Adding the “COMMIE” tag to the president at that time was absurd. there is where the alternate world comes in. Maybe instead of made in China it would read made in Russia.

    • tommyboys says:

      Potential “Nuclear conflict” with Russia significantly reduced once Trump takes the helm. Putin and most others counting the days till Obamas, Clintons and the rest of the elitist swamp vacate FOREVER. Can’t get here quickly enough.

      • lcd00 says:

        I’m curious what dictionary you use to define “elite” or “elitist”. You incessantly throw those words out with disdain in many of your posts and only ascribe it to the left. If you think Trump’s looming cabinet, and Trump, are not the elite, or elitist, you might want to consider working on your vocabulary and reality interpretation skills.

        • Trump Is not an elitist because he does not automatically consider people who work for a living his inferiors . He respects them. Elitists, no matter how insignificant their accomplishments may be, consider themselves innately superior. In my opinion, this was probably the root grievance of the American revolution.. That, and the policies it engendered. Some elitists do have major accomplishments, but they would consider themselves superior even if they didn’t.

          • joecthetruthteller says:

            Good post George.

          • Boom&Bust says:

            That’s funny, George! Trump considers everyone “his inferiors” .. that much is pretty obvious. “elitists” – get over the FOX slogans and propaganda in prosecuting Clinton relentlessly in the press for four years.

        • tommyboys says:

          Definition of elitist = Inventor of the internet and foremost authority on the warming of the globe, Al Gore, who with just ONE of his properties in FL, a 22,000 SF estate, sucks up 14X the carbon footprint of the average citizen, under the guise of being sympathetic toward the “less fortunate”. Elitist = hypocrite, liar, fraud at its core. Could go on and on… Clintons (foundation in serious jeopardy now that they can’t offer any “play” for pay), Obamas – more concered about where one can urinate than equitable healthcare, war, jobs and economy (on vacation again) etc…

          This ain’t Trump. Dow 25k in ’17…Good trading πŸ˜‰

          • fotis2 says:


          • Boom&Bust says:

            Not an ounce of truth but what do the republicans care just as long as they hit the hot button issues while siphoning our tax dollars into their wallets? America soon to be a 3rd world country – tax the middle class into oblivion while cutting taxes for billionaires. But they will yell – “they want your guns and they want to abort your babies and they don’t want America to be a Christian nation” all the while making suckers out their constituents ! Soon to be a mirror of Mexico with only two economic classes.

    • pooch77 says:

      thanks Gary

    • purplember says:

      Gary, are you going to the Trump inaugeration ? maybe we could sit together…..

  21. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    60 min macd needs to emerge from sub-Zero to get us going. Abc down from Nov 10 on the macd could be done, and we may already be starting an upturn, just have to wait for the juice.
    Met some politically correct surfers a few years back in Mexico, Trump was not politically known at that time. He was abhored by men and women alike, worst capitalist, sexist, retro-thinking man EVER. I always thought surfers were non-mainstream, taking the opposing view, travellng the path of more resistance. Anyway, I steered back to Peru hoping for the place not to enter a bullmarket anytime soon. Sitting “domesticated” back in Norway, well thats a path of eternal resistance. Reminds me of Trump :), he surely isnt a sell yet either.

    • torehund says:

      Selling cold waves in the dark…well you get the northern light in return. Let it shine on our waves too for the coming year. There is a saying “dont get bitter, get better” πŸ™‚

      • tony caldaro says:

        Finland and Norway markets look a lot like France

        • torehund says:

          Yes, and we have already got a Le Pen like figure taking care of the immigration policy. Finland had Nokia and we had Oil, all 3 countries suffers from a too strong currency and a boated bureaucracy. Something has to give to make all 3 countries competitive relative to their large inefficient public sectors. If it goes as one might think( ex US currencies sink), tourism is the way to go attracting the affluent Asians and the Dollar tourists. Greece will also rejuvenate if the Euro plummets, so we need politicians to mess it up “thoroughly” from time to time, to fix it all πŸ™‚ Merkel may soon give Greece and the likes a gift that was never intended, thats the beauty of the waves….

          • tony caldaro says:

            The next mini-crisis is the April France elections.
            Throw the bums out

            • torehund says:

              There is no easy fix to these aging central-planned economies but crash and burn of the currency like what happened in Russia. Migrants from the middle east are the new age drifters similar to post 1930 depression in the USA. Without a real economy they turn sour and there is no end in sight unless conditions improves job-wise, or peace and relative prosperity is restored back home vs sitting “locked in” in a refugee camp. Here in Norway the far left is as vocal as the far right, now the socialists advocates part state owned ownership of homes for those that can not afford to buy a home. This way the owner at a later time should be able to buy back the Gov owned part…As we know this would only accentuate the bubble in a very artificial way. Right or left has no clue, heck pop the bubble or the currency does the job all by itself πŸ™‚ If you even get in those that can not afford a house to buy one, you just copy the housing bubble ala USA in 2007, with a communistic twist.

  22. scottycj1 says:

    An increase in volume in the next few days is the finale tell.


  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    As expected in Friday’s post, we got a recovery day in all asset classes. Oil made new highs, though then plummeted. HYG:IEF gapped higher, only to lose ground intraday and end up in the red. My proprietary Technicals Model is quite negative, though off Friday’s lows. My swing trade system which triggered a SHORT for the market on Friday (that I told folks to wait for higher prices) did flip back to a NO SHORT. However, unless some serious momentum higher can be found, we may be nearing the peak before a larger decline begins.

    SPX hourly suggests the market may continue higher here, while $VIX did not show any positive divergences at the hourly scale, meaning the decline is likely not finished.

    And finally today I show progress on how my site will transition to be a trading platform for Daytraders, Active Traders, and Swing/401k Traders. Log in to read a description.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  24. EL MATADOR says:

    From this;

    to this;

    new ATH heading into earnings season; FOMC and Trump inauguration…my 2c

  25. PPT (Phil,Pooch and Tony)bailed out the market again.Nice buying guys..lol.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. NEWBIE says:

    Oil is going to drop like a rock and s&p will follow. Party’s over.

  28. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    ES reacted to support and resistance trend lines with perfection during the trading session (Chart 1). See tracking counts on the post-election rally in Chart 2.

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