SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -14
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were slightly higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 265K v 275K, and the trade deficit was reported higher: -$65.3B v -$62.0B. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2250 close, ticked up to 2255, and then started to pullback. Just past noon the SPX hit 2245. Then after a bounce to SPX 2251 by 2:30, the market dipped to end the day at 2249.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI at 9:45.
The market opened a bit higher, hit SPX 2255, then declined to 2245 around noon. The SPX 2245 level suggests, if a rally gets underway, that the 10+ day choppy activity ended in a complex flat. There was a slight short term positive divergence at today’s low setting up that possibility. Should the market clear today’s SPX 2255 high, then the possibility improves. If not, then the three lower support levels noted yesterday SPX: 2243, 2233 and 2221, come into play. Short term support is at those levels, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month, quarter, and the year. Happy New Year!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Cr. to CBZ
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Tony, looks like slight +div on the GDX weekly. Would you agree? (A successful re-test will obviously be needed to confirm trend change but +div helps)
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yes agree!
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SPX dips below 20d sma(2249).See if it stays under or rallies back above.
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Looks like 5 down is in either today or Jan 3.
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Failed 5th?
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HNY Tony and all. Did we just stop using 3’s and 4’s in elliot wave all together?
1-2’s
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First look at the charts but had a little deja vu back to last December when SPX started to pull back. Think OEW was in a primary bull wave into the Jan hit. Not being critical just don’t think anybody thinks it can happen.
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HD
dont count me in with .that crowd
phil1247 says:
December 28, 2016 at 11:45 am
retest of ext long levels coming up
if they fail it could get ugly fast
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case in point ….dxy ext long failed ……support drops to 99
clock is ticking on old bucky ..
..tick tock clairesse
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Lots of people think it can happen.
Cashin’s been talking all week about a $36B Fund rebalancing in January (sell stock – buy bonds). Looks like lots of hedging has been going on too.
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Happy New Year
Tony
see you next year !
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HNY Phil
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thanks Tony, so we could have 5 overlapping waves up in 2016 complete?
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wedge that would be almost completely retraced
would fit perfectly with 1846 ext long support
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possible, but it formed a channel
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Just sayin…. some people, most people, lots of people expect bigly rally.
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It might not happen by Jan.1
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…and T.Boone did not make 60/oil happen…unless it flies today.
Read RJ…his models are interesting, and somewhat the same as TC…..soothing…HNY
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again
not me HD
until 2266 SPX can be surpassed convincingly
next extension long support is at 1846…. no typo
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Last year the SPX hit 2135, dropped to 1810 early this year, then hit 2278.
Those targets, except the last two, all look like those people are bearish.
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http://imgur.com/a/r2o66
Trump our P-III man can handle the bullies 🙂 Just hang in there…..
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NY A/D line will lead you to the next – Bear market, that is coming due….
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/466000296
Thank you Tony for the terrific chart work that you do, for all to see.
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GDX…Continues to shine, going into the weekend.
NEM is also a play on the precious metals rise.
I am staying Bullish….
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My price projection for NEM is $45….
Comments, are welcome..
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The McClellan Summation Index,
The daily chart has now turn down/lower.
This new Bear signal, is something to be aware
of, if your long. Now, as a trade, SDS is one
I have looked at, and like…end
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GDX hit my short term target yesterday and this am went to 21.98 pre hours.22 was resistance I mentioned all week,all month.So if that was it…we’ll see next Jan 3.Putin,being so peaceful ,certainly didn’t help gold any today.Later.
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Btw,always watch the 20d sma (currently 20.35ish).A drop below that again is as good as a sign reading:”bear teeth visible-2 feet away”.A break up above 22 would be bullish.
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Thanks Learned…I enjoy the crow episodes, and how you make it fun for everyone…..back to the ship of fools…
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HNY Fiona–and all.
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Good positioning, nice work.
Should be a trade, or something more…
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On the very short term, a retrace higher is supported by positive divergences at today’s lows on the SPX hourly chart. My proprietary Technicals Model was only slightly lower today (but nearing the SHORT signal), leaving a potential positive divergence in place vs. the SPX with last weeks lows. Both the SPX Daily and HYG:IEF are at the 20 day moving averages, oil is still decently above. These daily charts would look better with new highs, allowing more substantial negative divergences to be put into place before a downturn occurs.
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