thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -14

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were slightly higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 265K v 275K, and the trade deficit was reported higher: -$65.3B v -$62.0B. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2250 close, ticked up to 2255, and then started to pullback. Just past noon the SPX hit 2245. Then after a bounce to SPX 2251 by 2:30, the market dipped to end the day at 2249.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI at 9:45.

The market opened a bit higher, hit SPX 2255, then declined to 2245 around noon. The SPX 2245 level suggests, if a rally gets underway, that the 10+ day choppy activity ended in a complex flat. There was a slight short term positive divergence at today’s low setting up that possibility. Should the market clear today’s SPX 2255 high, then the possibility improves. If not, then the three lower support levels noted yesterday SPX: 2243, 2233 and 2221, come into play. Short term support is at those levels, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month, quarter, and the year. Happy New Year!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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90 Responses to thursday update

  1. tony, bud, learned, phil, boraq: I’ve observed some interesting behavior in PMs the past two days and would like to share my observations and hear your thoughts. I have 5 fairly large images that I don’t believe WordPress will allow me to upload.

    Is there an alternative method to contact you, eg. via email?

    Best,
    Tom

    • bud67 says:

      Bud bud_67@hotmail.com welcome your views/sharing

    • 123 abc says:

      Upload your images on Imgur (free, no sign-up or account required), and then share the auto-generated links on this blog.

      http://imgur.com/

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tom, if you are using an Apple computer, ask the computer to e-mail the images to your own address. In this process you will be asked what size to send, then choose what is appropriate.
      Drag the links from your e-mails and place on screen.
      Open Tony’s site, and drag the links on to the “leave a reply” box.
      Press Post Comment.

    • Thanks, abc & fiona. Imgur worked perfectly.

      Note: My observations are focused on drastic short-term volume spikes that coincide with Fibonacci levels and EW on longer term horizons.

      On 12/29, GDX shares got dumped right before the close with trading volume behavior that deviated from its counterparts GLD, NUGT, JNUG, DUST, and JDST.

      GLD, NUGT, and JNUG all showed bullish short-term indicators going into the close with spikes in volume on the buy side. DUST and JDST on the contrary, close bearish as expected during this bounce/potential trend reversal for gold.

      GDX, on the other hand, appeared to close bullish with extremely high sell volume compared to the rest which seemed counterintuitive. When looking at the 133t chart, there are signs of a red flag from my point of view as it actually closed bearish, hence the high sell volume. Even after hours GDX bounced and continued lower.

      On 12/30, quite conveniently, the opposite occurred with GDX appearing to close bearish/neutral with roughly the same volume of 30M except it is actually showing bullish behavior on the 133t charts and into the after hours. Coincidence that we had a pullback in PMs following yesterday’s observations?

      Also worth noting, GLD broke the 23.6% retracement level before bouncing into the close. NUGT hit the 38.2%, JNUG 50%, and GDX slightly over the 61.8% levels. All of which appear to close bearish/neutral unless looking at shorter time frames, ie. 1 min and 133t charts. These spikes occurred literally at the close.

      While I don’t have any particular theories or reasoning for such behavior, I am curious as to what everyone’s thoughts are of the significance of such peculiar occurrences in trade volume of this magnitude. Especially given that these observations are not apparent on longer time frames.

      1 min and 133t charts can be found here: https://imgur.com/a/ziLTK

      I will be watching PMs closely on Tuesday to see if there is any follow through with 12/30’s close.

      Happy new year tony and all, always appreciate your generosity of insight :]

      Best,
      Tom

  2. captbara says:

    160 10 min candles right around here for those who care..

  3. blackjak100 says:

    Still think a wave 4 from 2087 completed at 2234 as a complex flat. With all the talk of rebalancing next week (selling of stocks), it would not surprise to see wave 5 higher begin which would end before inauguration shy of 2300.

    End

    • I think you are close with that. If you draw a 3min chart from this mornings high you will see an impulse that has completed a possible 4 waves and just needs a few points lower to complete unless 4 becomes more complex, but still need another small move lower.

  4. Nothing shit you out more than a wave 2. 3 of 3 starting in few minutes and at the exact 50%. They do not want us on the wave 3. I am long and risking.

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Happy New Year!
    Possible Symmetry Pattern Repeat?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/9AJcKEuQ/

  6. phil1247 says:

    / ES 2234 target hit

    if we dont ACCELLERATE down now thru target going to take profits in spxu

  7. EL MATADOR says:

    This looks probable….we shall see….HNY everyone

    • blackjak100 says:

      El mat, doesn’t meet the rules of Contracting ED. Wave c is longer than wave a and I stopped there.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Yes I know it does not meet the conventional EW ED rules. I don’t agree with the aforementioned rule and stated my logical reason in past. I treat it more as wedge pattern then an EW ED pattern. Will put a caution note in future post to avoid confusion with conventional EW 🙂 . Got to wonder though if that wedge failed breakout gives that wedge some credibility, maybe just a little ;-).

        Cheers and HNY BJ.

  8. Dex T says:

    Some thoughts…

    2017 – Entrance of the bear! Wonder if we get a huge selloff next week? -repeat of early 2016

    Oil goes to under $20 (I’m looking for $17 – WTI as a bottom)

    Interest rates get raised 3 times

    Trump names 2 Fed members who target rates at 1.5% by mid 2018- Yellen caves in to Trump neverending twitter assault

    Wall Street, financial news, economic policy, interest rates become dominated by Trump twitter/facebook/Mar-e-Lago Golf Course “news” feed – forget the mainstream channels!!! – U.S. economy becomes REALITY TV (not that I bother watching them personally)

    Happy New Year to All!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Plus Ivanka and Chelsea both go on the POTUS campaign trail for 2020
      HNY

      • Dex T says:

        I hope not that soon, though I agree they will be at some point. Not looking forward to either of these 2 becoming candidates even though they are being groomed.

    • tommyboys says:

      PB/Correction any minute but no bear. Leading indicators, AD, GDP etc… No indication of bear – at least next couple Qs.

      • Dex T says:

        I didn’t name a timeline – It could begin at the end of 2017.

        This was a different bull and the bear will be different as well.

        But Wave 5 is coming to an end.

  9. phil1247 says:

    sold all GLD bot yest am
    ext long has failed

    now 1140 /gc must support or its new lows ahead

    • Phil..enjoy reading your posts…
      just as FYI…are you using a different algorithm than DH? DH has an updated line in the sand (61.8% retrace) for GC at 1147.20. Breaching that level opens the door to 1138.

      • phil1247 says:

        DH has taught me how to fish

        now i am using the fishing line that works for me ..
        .sometimes i dont agree with him

        like the bond market selloff caught him with his pants down

        “selling into any rally ” was from what i saw in the charts
        while DH was looking for support levels to buy

        by the time he woke up to what was going on

        it was too late

  10. scottycj1 says:

    Bought GLD Sep 111 puts. Expecting 80 to 81 before the summer is over. Think abc123’s SPX count may be correct…..now in bull flag for wave 2……Bullish Div in 2 hour spx chart
    (19 period Stoch)

  11. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  12. LBHK says:

    Tony, looks like slight +div on the GDX weekly. Would you agree? (A successful re-test will obviously be needed to confirm trend change but +div helps)

  13. SPX dips below 20d sma(2249).See if it stays under or rallies back above.

  14. captbara says:

    Looks like 5 down is in either today or Jan 3.

  15. Hugh Jazole says:

    Failed 5th?

  16. H D says:

    HNY Tony and all. Did we just stop using 3’s and 4’s in elliot wave all together? :mrgreen: 1-2’s

  17. torehund says:

    Trump our P-III man can handle the bullies 🙂 Just hang in there…..

  18. bud67 says:

    NY A/D line will lead you to the next – Bear market, that is coming due….
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/466000296
    Thank you Tony for the terrific chart work that you do, for all to see.

  19. bud67 says:

    GDX…Continues to shine, going into the weekend.
    NEM is also a play on the precious metals rise.
    I am staying Bullish….

  20. stormchaser80llc says:

    On the very short term, a retrace higher is supported by positive divergences at today’s lows on the SPX hourly chart. My proprietary Technicals Model was only slightly lower today (but nearing the SHORT signal), leaving a potential positive divergence in place vs. the SPX with last weeks lows. Both the SPX Daily and HYG:IEF are at the 20 day moving averages, oil is still decently above. These daily charts would look better with new highs, allowing more substantial negative divergences to be put into place before a downturn occurs.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  21. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  22. I read analysis from one person today who thinks gold,because of its sentiment reading being the worst in years for ANYTHING (bonds,stocks,commodities),sees a $120 move minimum before sentiment catches up.He likens it to Feb of 2016 for SPX.Maybe a potential WROC on this MR C?See what kind of follow through tomorrow.

  23. mcgcapital says:

    I have this as the start of a bigger and protracted correction, similar to what we had through September and October. Ultimately see it resolving to the upside but not before a pullback into the 2100s. Investors are now all
    in bullish, we’re coming to the end of the Xmas period and we’re at resistance in most markets. FTSE 7130, Dax 11430, Dow 20k. When volume picks up next week we could well see the usual 3-5% January correction

  24. Page says:

    SPX rally resumes tomorrow. Gold/miners bounce is about to end (Gold around 1170).
    Oil and NatGas also in pullback.

    Thanks Tony.

  25. llerias7 says:

    Tony, are we in a minute iv wave of minor 3?

    • pooch77 says:

      I dont think anyone is quite of what we are in

      • llerias7 says:

        It is OK as long I won´t wake up with another “sea of read”…

      • 123 abc says:

        3 possible scenarios from 2083 to 2277, hope this helps (hope its correct!)…

        1. Minor-3 → Minute-i (…and now Minute-ii pullback is underway).
        2. Minor-3 → Minute-iii (…and now Minute-iv pullback is underway).
        3. Minor-3 → Minute-iii → Micro-1 (…and now Micro-2 pullback is underway).

        Scenario 2 is eliminated if 2214 is taken out, and then scenario 3 comes into play.
        Scenario 3 is eliminated if 2187 is taken out, and then scenario 1 comes into play.
        Scenario 1 is probably most likely if the 2212 pivot range comes into play.

        Tony is currently preferring scenario 3.
        Personally preferring scenario 1 since its the most simplest and ‘looks’ good on the DOW.

    • tony caldaro says:

      no label yet
      sticking with the 1-2 scenario

  26. GDX settled about 7.65% up on the day…2% the last 3 minutes of some frantic shortcovering.Great stuff,but bear market rally unless it gets above(my opinion only)25ish the top black crow.Other key spots are HUI at 200 ( neck line of H&S).The break of HUI was supposed to travel to 133.Didn’t make it that far.Be careful until these levels break to the upside.

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