Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then sideways, DOW +11

Overnight Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and the SPX opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2264 close. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.6% v +5.4%. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2274 and then began to pullback. At 10am consumer confidence was reported higher: 113.7 v 109.4. The pullback continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 2268 in the closing minutes, then bounced to close at 2269.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rallied 80 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to its best level since December 14th – the day the FED raised rates, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. The larger wave pattern after the FED raised rates and the market hit SPX 2248 has been: 2272-2254-2273-2256-2274. This can be a number of potential short term patterns, i.e. triangle, complex flat, etc. Not much to add until the market breaks out one way or the other. Short term support is at SPX 2254 and SPX 2248, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum spiked to quite overbought at the open, then drifted down to near neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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43 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. bud67 says:

    Hello. Brief word. IMO the SP500 index is now Bearish. By, this time next
    week — the SP pattern should look like, a down turn formed in the later
    days of 2016…IMO

  2. bhuggs52 says:

    I had the idea last Friday and covered my longs from the Election run-up, as noted in my Christmas post. Now I see today that other traders might have the same idea? Lock in near-term gains, and maybe even others covering year-end. I think for the moment any faith in this market will be thin-skinned until Trump makes good on his fiscal promises in 2017, taxes, etc. That’s why yesterday I said it will be interesting to see how the New Year starts out, either with an increasingly cautious faith in the uptrend, or an all out wave 3 charge because so many believe in Trump. Oh Trump, Trump, Trump. What a perfect world.

    From a wave perspective, per Tony’s reply below, another nested 2 right now, or the minute iv woulf be nifty, with then the start of a wave 3 or the minute 5 taking us up to the inauguration.

    Good luck all and Happy New Year.

  3. llerias7 says:

    Tony, definitely this is not minute iii of minor 3…!??

  4. phil1247 says:


    entry on spx 15 min chart for extension short is at what number??? anyone??

    • That is the 95% consensus Fiona.Dollar rocketing higher,destroying all PMs in its path.The beginning of the year will tell much.Aggressive goldbugs can take the chance of an immediate reversal of the July to Dec drop.Conservative goldbugs can wait and see.GDX above 20.50(20 d sma)is the first hope.Each black crow is the next resistance to climb,with a 100% all clear above 25.A dollar correction probably required.
      A drop below 18.60 would mean the articles scenario is in the cards until the next 6 month cycle starts in July.You won’t have much time to sell to avoid 20-40% losses.Horrible sentiment is pushing GDX this week.Next week is the key imho.Good luck all.

  5. allen1929 says:

    where is yesterdays posts?

    • bud67 says:

      Thank You, Fiona Great Info….

      • fionamargaret says:

        RJ suggests 2600, calculated using earnings…..my number progressions suggest 2616.
        Remember 2185, which was the number I suggested when we were below 2000, I think we might correct to that number as some have suggested….which would be a great buying opportunity….after that 2330…then 2616…no timeline.

  6. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Volatility Model indicates very low readings, indicative of either a top being put in or sustained consolidation.

    Bearish items include a new $VIX uptrend, and recent negative divergences in both McClellan Oscillator and New Highs. The number of stocks above their 20/50 day moving average could be starting a significant deterioration, Even in a continued bullish scenario, my hourly SPX analysis continues to indicate a new low below 2247.9 seen on 12/14. My proprietary Technicals Model has put in a large negative divergence vs. SPX seen since mid December.

    On the bullish side, My proprietary Technicals Model was slightly positive today as was the McClellan Oscillator. SPX Daily analysis showed no negative divergences at recent highs, which most often means a new high is expected. HYG:IEF continues to make new 2016 highs. While my legacy swing trading signals are neutral, all 999 members of my new ensemble are currently bullish.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  7. bhuggs52 says:

    It will be interesting to see where the markets go once we’re into the new year. In the meantime, here’s a link to a WSJ article on an expected return to strong corporate buy-backs in 2017, and the reasoning behind the possibility. The gist, any significant tax breaks from Trump to the corporations will free up the cash for possible billions in buy-backs, which would certainly have some effect on the overall direction of the market.


  8. jobjas says:

    Gold continuing as projected

  9. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  10. torehund says:

    Case Shiller, it exhibits negative macd divergence and a lower high. A sign of a downturn in housing. If it goes into a declining 3 you can appreciate the timescale of the downturn ahead.

    • blackjak100 says:

      I work in the industry daily and we are not seeing any signs of a downturn or stagnation in the twin cities yet.

  11. torehund says:

    Biotech getting wedgy, quite frankly the index is a bit similar to the USD/CAD. Currencies are the “silent thief” affecting real-estate, and except for recessions/deflatory manias is the lacmus test of a the competitiveness/health of a nation. A lower currency also benefits the weak, if you are so lucky as to have your own currency. Greece cant so they hopefully do so poorly that natures fixes it by itself and investors ditches the Euro until a new balance emerges. If the Euro plummets they will do great as the shipping index is in Usd. So just mess it up beyond belief and you dont owe a lot all of a sudden 🙂

  12. The drumbeat has been almost unanimous–no selloff this year,thanks to the idea of lower tax rates next year.But when January starts,”Expect lots of selling”.
    Just about every analyst is saying that.So if we learn anything from Brexit and Trump is–“Expect NO selling?”I think Mr C is expecting the rally to continue through Inauguration Day.Very few others thinking that way–which I know he probably prefers.
    GDX did pretty good.3% Bulls and 7 straight weeks of gold losses(a 14 year record) will do that.Avi had written that a close over 19.70 on GDX would be encouraging.Let’s see HOW encouraging…lol.Good luck all.

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