Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then sideways, DOW +11

Overnight Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and the SPX opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2264 close. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.6% v +5.4%. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2274 and then began to pullback. At 10am consumer confidence was reported higher: 113.7 v 109.4. The pullback continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 2268 in the closing minutes, then bounced to close at 2269.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rallied 80 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to its best level since December 14th – the day the FED raised rates, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. The larger wave pattern after the FED raised rates and the market hit SPX 2248 has been: 2272-2254-2273-2256-2274. This can be a number of potential short term patterns, i.e. triangle, complex flat, etc. Not much to add until the market breaks out one way or the other. Short term support is at SPX 2254 and SPX 2248, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum spiked to quite overbought at the open, then drifted down to near neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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43 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. bud67 says:

    Hello. Brief word. IMO the SP500 index is now Bearish. By, this time next
    week — the SP pattern should look like, a down turn formed in the later
    days of 2016…IMO

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  2. bhuggs52 says:

    I had the idea last Friday and covered my longs from the Election run-up, as noted in my Christmas post. Now I see today that other traders might have the same idea? Lock in near-term gains, and maybe even others covering year-end. I think for the moment any faith in this market will be thin-skinned until Trump makes good on his fiscal promises in 2017, taxes, etc. That’s why yesterday I said it will be interesting to see how the New Year starts out, either with an increasingly cautious faith in the uptrend, or an all out wave 3 charge because so many believe in Trump. Oh Trump, Trump, Trump. What a perfect world.

    From a wave perspective, per Tony’s reply below, another nested 2 right now, or the minute iv woulf be nifty, with then the start of a wave 3 or the minute 5 taking us up to the inauguration.

    Good luck all and Happy New Year.

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  3. llerias7 says:

    Tony, definitely this is not minute iii of minor 3…!??

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  4. phil1247 says:

    SHORT

    entry on spx 15 min chart for extension short is at what number??? anyone??

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    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      That is the 95% consensus Fiona.Dollar rocketing higher,destroying all PMs in its path.The beginning of the year will tell much.Aggressive goldbugs can take the chance of an immediate reversal of the July to Dec drop.Conservative goldbugs can wait and see.GDX above 20.50(20 d sma)is the first hope.Each black crow is the next resistance to climb,with a 100% all clear above 25.A dollar correction probably required.
      A drop below 18.60 would mean the articles scenario is in the cards until the next 6 month cycle starts in July.You won’t have much time to sell to avoid 20-40% losses.Horrible sentiment is pushing GDX this week.Next week is the key imho.Good luck all.

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  5. allen1929 says:

    where is yesterdays posts?

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