Friday update

SHORT TERM: total daily SPX range 5 points, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets open lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were flat overnight and the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2261 close. By 10am the market had bounced to SPX 2263. Then consumer sentiment was reported higher: 98.2 v 98.0, and new home sales were reported higher: 592K v 563K. The market then pulled back to SPX 2259 by 11:30. The excitement continued as the market moved higher into the afternoon. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2264 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 10 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 61.3% v 61.0%, and Q4 GDP was reported at 2.5% v 2.6%.

The market opened marginally lower today, bounced to SPX 2263, pulled back to SPX 2259, then finished the day at SPX 2264. Have to wonder why the market was even open. With very little movement on the day the short term wave pattern remains in choppy-mode. Some historical comparisons in the weekend update for your holiday reading. Best to you and yours this holiday season!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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26 Responses to Friday update

  1. Have to throw a little water on the bull.Nadeem Walayat is now calling for the end of the 7 year bull market in 2017.Says Trump will be “a disaster” and is reducing his exposure by 50%.Has a video on Market Oracle.Actually many videos.He’s pretty smart,from what I ‘ve seen the last two years.

  2. kvilia says:

    Happy holidays!

  3. Thanks Tony, earlier this week there were some decent trades but the last two or three days have simply been brutal. Because of thin volume and narrow trading ranges, I have reservations about including the past week in any type of analysis about short term market direction. With that caveat, I have reversed my short term outlook and see selling pressure building through a descending triangle and expect maybe one or two days of buying before selling resumes. Longer term, though, I am very optimistic. After eight years of the obscene Obama nightmare, his feckless policies and nearly 21,000 new business regulations, Trump will certainly bring fresh thinking, restore business confidence and unleash core capital spending which will increase both employment and productivity, the two drivers of long term growth. And animal spirits will be renewed. https://www.tradingview.com/x/telFBjMP/

    Merry Christmas to Tony and the other great contrributors

  4. Best of holidays Mr C and all.Thanks for your responses and opinions.See you all next week.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Consumer confidence is at a 12 year high.
      But all the media talks about is the loud minority bashing Trump

    • vivelaamo says:

      The thing is since when has good news been good for the stock market? We’ve had 3 shocks which were apparently very bad for the economies yet the market has rallied after each one like never before. 2017 is going to be full of uncertainty and political shocks in Europe so market will crash right? 2016 suggests not.

      Best thing to do is ignore the politics and noise by sticking to the charts.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    CC certainly thinks your P3 call could be accurate based on weight of evidence. I’m convinced the market will fool everyone by performing very poorly during trump administration which is my preferred scenario or will perform beyond anyone’s expectations which is your scenario and my alternate.

    Merry Xmas!

    http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/secular-stock-market-signals-have-occurred-only-one-other-time-since-1928/

    • mcgcapital says:

      Does the DeMark stuff actually work? I’m sure he was using it back in April time to say we were getting a sell
      signal to go back down to the lows. As someone who is bearish on a 2-3 year view on fundamental grounds, the key take away from that is that this uptrend is strong and it’s going to take time for those moving averages to turn lower if they are at all. So no short and holds for now

      • blackjak100 says:

        i know very little on the Demark stuff. What I do know is tom demark appeared a lot on tv from 2012-2014 with a lot of wrong calls based off of his indicators. You can be the judge. Agree the moving averages will take awhile to turn, but months of sideways to down action without new ATH will take care of it.

      • Stevie Cohen uses DeMark indicators and admits he’s only 52% right, good enough to turn a profit…

  6. tomasso60 says:

    Thanks Tony;
    May you and yours have a very merry Christmas and happy New Year.
    Peace and prosperity

  7. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony for sharing OEW theory.
    Wishing you, friends & family, and everybody else here a Merry Christmas.


  8. llerias7 says:

    Tony, the minutes references still tentative (green color)?
    May be this week we had the minute IV instead, considering the mkt behavior !?

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