Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: holiday season trading, DOW -33

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1% also. US index futures were lower overnight, and the SPX opened two points below yesterday’s 2271 close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2271, and then started to pullback. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher: 5.61M v 5.60M. By 11am the SPX dipped to 2267. Then for the rest of the day it stayed in that 4 point range until the final hour, when it dipped to SPX 2265 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Tomorrow: a deluge of seven economic reports, highlighted by the Q3 GDP (est. +3.2%).

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to unchanged, and then traded slightly lower for the rest of the day. No buyers, no sellers, very little activity. This non-eventful day changes nothing in the short term choppy pattern. Still in a Minor 3 uptrend, and probably Minute iii of the uptrend underway. Lots of economic reports tomorrow, especially the Q3 GDP final, might provide a catalyst. Short term support drops to SPX 2254 and SPX 2048, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum spent the whole day around neutral, then neared oversold. Best to your holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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78 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    Stick a fork in the rally indices will follow rut

  2. pooch77 says:

    Rut tryning to move up but keeps tripping on the way up

  3. vivelaamo says:

    I’m happy with this small pb on reducing volume. Can sense the resident bears on here getting excited but there is nothing to suggest that the minor moves will lead to anything significante just yet. Obviously if we start dropping below recent resistant become support areas and moving averages then it’s time to change stance. But until then nothing to worry about and still expect a nice grind up over the next week.

  4. captbara says:

    Tentative 3-3-5 flat here. Matches up with several indices so far

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Look at the RUT…….got very close to the top of its trend line on the monthlys…………….got to the tippy top of its trendline on the weeklys and on the hourly it formed a wedge, broke out of its wedge to the upside, but then failed to establish a new high and fell below the underside of its wedge and is moving fast now to the downside. Plus you had massive massive divergence which had formed on the longer time frames.

    Look at the trendlines on the monthlys from 07. It was at the tippy top of its trendline and now is testing the trend line on the daily which it broke out of recently. I am assuming this support fails as well

    I don’t know but this bull is old and at the very least is looking for a sizable pullback.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Russel held at 20 day MA. Needs to bounce from here or santa might not be bringing presents this year.

  7. captbara says:

    Santa is like Candyman. If you call for him too much he’ll kill you 🔫🎅

  8. mcgcapital says:

    US markets are losing momentum on the daily charts. Could see a 4-5% correction at the start of Jan. Since the first high of the February low we’ve been going up for 2 months then retracing 38-61% of the gains. The lack of tax loss selling this year suggests there may be some pent up supply in January and it’s also a time where investors may get a bit jittery about Trump’s tax and spending plans.

  9. scottycj1 says:

    The all time high for the Wheat ETF (Weat) is 25.94……..allow me to round up a few cents and call that $26. Can you see the relationship between the high price and the current price at 676 ????

  10. pooch77 says:

    Lets see if if rut turns when 2 hour charts bottom.Happened the last 2 drops

  11. pooch77 says:

    Small caps profit easy come easy go

  12. pooch77 says:

    Small caps profit easy come easy go

  13. And one on equities:
    Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG in a Thursday note said as much, referring to the broad-market S&P 500 index.

    “The S&P futures have seen a significant loss of short-term momentum, enough to generate the first ‘sell’ signal in the daily [moving average convergence divergence] indicator since it turned positive on November 8th,” she wrote. And if the S&P 500 is going to fade, the Dow is likely to move in step with its broader-mark

  14. Gold Prices May Ignore US GDP Update as the Fed Looks Elsewhere
    Thursday, Dec 22, 2016 3:33 am EST

    by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

    Talking Points:

    GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices remain locked in a narrow range above the $1100/oz figure. Near-term support is at 1118.98, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1097.71. Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 1145.30 targets the 14.6% expansion at 1161.52.

    Gold Prices May Ignore US GDP Update as the Fed Looks Elsewhere
    CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 49.78 exposes the 50% level at 48.33. Alternatively, a push above the 54.63-55.07 area (38.2% Fib expansion, trend line) targets the 50% threshold at 56.08.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks for the oil technical analysis Learned….interesting 1m 2018 100 call placed yesterday…guys were talking about that early this am…I just think T.Boone will get his 60 for the end of the month…he has his reputation after all…

  15. captbara says:

    Wedge backtest not going to work?

  16. blubrd67 says:

    Guys, that now UWTI And DWTI are gone, what do you find as best replacement?

    • fionamargaret says:

      I use UCO for long, and SCO for short, but it is not the same as far as I am concerned.
      I got used to the numbers on UWTI and they were fast, but there was a recognizable pattern to them….UCO is slower, like deadly slow.
      Blue, I am really happy you came back, and hope you are doing well.
      Bouraq has a nice NG chart on the blog today.

      • blubrd67 says:

        You are right, they are super slow… I thought you knew something better that I’m missing.

        I appreciate all your comments, you are always caring and helpful! I wish everyone here was like that. Tony’s site deserves the best! I’m too busy in the clinic to be here daily or even weekly.
        But something for you to warm up your day, and all the classical lovers… jazzy improvisations on Turkish March:

        • fionamargaret says:

 nice Blue X…I do hope you are popping around over the holidays.
          I left a couple of Melinda and Bill Gates Foundation videos last night….fun.
          Clinic Blue?? I just know they are lucky to have you.
          I bought JPNL…we should try to get them back to 30,000…..and also TLT ..bounce to around 124…maybe. xx

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Added to Russel and SPX long positions. You’ll see how surprising it is the way markets climb on low volume. Easiest trades of the year.

    Maybe,just maybe, this is Harry Dent converting to bull.

  19. stormchaser80llc says:

    While new highs are likely ahead, in the short term we must keep a close eye on the developing bearish momentum. $VIX looks set for a bullish trend with positive divergences on all indicators. The SPX hourly chart continues to indicate a new low (below 2247.9) is required to put in positive divergences. The McClellan Oscillator had its first negative day in more than a month.

    My trading signals remain the same. The legacy LONG/SHORT signals continue to suggest a neutral position is best, while my volatility signal is very low at this time. All 999 ensemble members remain bullish. Its due to this, a lack of breakdown in my proprietary Technicals Model, and the lack of negative divergences on the SPX daily that I remain long in my 401k.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $NATGAS at

    • radrian6 says:

      Can’t speak for the wave count but I agree that SPX is in the C-wave of a correction — could also be a triangle but should still get a bounce when C-wave ends. Do you have a target for the correction?

      • 123 abc says:

        Assuming the count is correct, then looking for a test of the 2212 pivot range, or approx a 38.2% retracement.

        • radrian6 says:

          Thank you … I’ve been following the IWM and the A-wave was about 4 points and if C=A, the C wave should find support near 134. I’ve got an S/R pivot at 134 and 133.72 is the 27.2% extension of the A-wave … seems reasonable. A trip to 2212 means another 40+ points for SPX — a bit of a heavy correction given this typically bullish season.

        • radrian6 says:

          Just wanted to add that Dec 9 was the last time I saw anything resembling a trend in RUT/IWM. Since then, all the price action has been corrective even though the bias has shifted between up and down.

Comments are closed.