Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open/close in quiet trading, DOW +92

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened 4 points above yesterday’s 2263 close. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to 2273, as the DOW came within 13 points of 20K. Then the market started to pullback. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2266, then rose into the close to end the day at 2271.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds slipped 4 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises the 2270 and 2212 pivots, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, made the high in the morning, and then traded under that high for the rest of the day. Today’s action looked similar to yesterday’s. Except yesterday’s high was SPX 2267, and today’s was SPX 2273. All-time high is SPX 2278. Short term smaller waves continue to look choppy with a positive bias. Short term support rises to the 2270 pivot and SPX 2248, with resistance at the 2286 and 2321 pivots. Short term momentum was a bit more overbought at the high than yesterday, and then pulled back. Best to your holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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80 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    This is done for the year isn’t it. Maybe we grind a little higher new few days and next week.

  2. tommyboys says:

    AD Line busting new highs again 🙂

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    O M G

    the S&P went down 3 handles!!! BUY OF THE CENTURY!!! LOAD UP

  4. Dex T says:

    “RIGA (Reuters) – The European Central Bank’s aggressive money-printing has failed to boost growth in the euro zone substantially, Latvia’s Ilmars Rimsevics said on Wednesday, the third ECB rate setter to express disappointment about the programme in the past few days.

    Last week the ECB’s chief economist Peter Praet, the architect of its quantitative easing (QE) programme, said the effects of the scheme on inflation had been disappointing.

    Days later, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a long-standing critic of QE, said central banks are largely powerless in reviving demand and warned against asking too much of them.”


  5. captbara says:

    Stockcharts acting weird. Hate it when they just decide to randomly sh!t the bed.

  6. phil1247 says:


    shorts and longs breaking …suggests triangle forming

    may need a down blast to new lows to clear out the bottom fishers

    • joemal97 says:

      Phil, are you speaking only to BOND\TLT or to equities as well? Thanks for the clarification.

      • phil1247 says:

        both look to have triangles forming

        its too perfect almost …both in possible 4th wave triangles

        spx getting ready to pop and drop….
        bonds getting ready to drop and pop !

  7. phil1247 says:


    DOLLAR bulls
    103.6 target hit

    heading back to test extension long…………..it had better hold

    • cosmos77 says:

      Have a safe and happy holiday Red. I’m looking forward to your posts next year. 2017 should be an interesting year with all the uncertainty. Too much is depending on an unpredictable potus.

    • phil1247 says:

      thanks red

    • fionamargaret says:

      I know it has been a really difficult year for you Red, but I sincerely wish you the very best Christmas….and do come on the site if you feel down…xxx

  8. phil1247 says:


    GOLD is bearish below 1142

    target 1117

    no rally possible until extension short fails

  9. Just got done reading Avi Gilburts weekly tome on PMs.The bottom line is,he thinks GDX is ready for the 3rd wave to new highs.But only if it turns around quickly.He keeps coming up with new lower targets that should not be broken.Now it’s 17.But he says”a turnaround and a low may have happened already”.
    He also says the DXY has made its PO of 103 and change,though the high end projection from 72 could go to 106.He’s predicting quite the dollar correction shortly.
    The system I rely on is the 6 month trend change.January and July is the start of a trend in gold.You can look back for years and see it happen.This year,Jan was the start of the bull run.July began the descent.If this is going to happen,we should see this first week of January be bullish.The tendency after this big selloff is to reverse the trend,but back to back drops occur also (rarely).
    It would be a helluva call if Gilburt is correct from here.Good luck all.

  10. syedsma says:

    Hi Tony, do you or anyone on this forum has an OEW count for NVIDIA (NVDA)?

  11. Nazi’s unite with Commies and we unite with both. Now that’s funny. Keep your heads in the stock market and for heavens sake never look up. NSA in bed with Nazi’s and Commies, along with the Clinton-Pizza-Child-Porn-Ring. No one can pictures Nukes flying in the long 4 year term? No? Commander in Chief that has more than a few loose rocks, Never Backs Down, and has COMPLETE authority to launch those suckers with no checks and balances. Got to see Dr. Strangelove again. Not so funny this time around. My analytical record speaks for itself. Dismiss me like you have but this time it might mean more than your wallet. Just my National Security Warning Alert, had it been a real emergency….

    • torehund says:

      In Germany they are pondering a 5 year jail sentence for anyone who disrupts the political discussion with gossip, fake news etc. As they dont want a European repeat of someone like Donald to enter the high office.
      Collective “thinking” brought up to still another elevated level. Solution; let every country be allowed to think for themselves, then let every individual be free to do so too. We are in need of a reset, first step abolish the EU. Markets tells the truth and may soon do so.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        The problem with Governments desiring this is they’re the original professionals when it comes to fake news and information. No wonder everyone is doing it. It’s been going on since the beginning of time. The Elites are casting around for a reason as to why they lost!

    • Scott Ford says:

      Crazy stuff there Gary. At least we elected the candidate less likely to start a nuclear war. I can’t fathom how quickly Secretary Clinton would have been pushing the buttons. Terrifying! Trump historically seems much too anti-war to get involved.

    • fbender7 says:

      As I recall, Hillary Clinton was the one with the loose tongue when it came to threatening Russia with nuclear war (along with the PM of Great Britain). Guess those ladies were just trying to act tough? Dangerous stuff in my opinion. Trump has only said that it would be great if the US and Russia got along with each other. That sounds reasonable to me.

      The greatest threat to the US in recent times as far as communism goes was not Russia, but rather, the past 8 years of Barrack Obama. As you may know, Obama’s parents were communists, as were his American grandparents who raised him. His mentor, Frank Marshall Davis, was Communist as well. According to his autobiography, Obama spent a good part of his college years smoking pot with his buddies and discussing their communist/socialist/marxist/leninist views of the world. He has tried to keep on the down-low regarding his communist beliefs but his actions betray him (to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear).

      The end of the Obama-Clinton consortium should also be the end of America’s most recent crisis era. Time to move on with peace, and a free America, in the current era of growth and prosperity.

    • tommyboys says:

      Ridiculous fear mongering and Gary you are propegating it. Russian diplomat getting shot will likely cement Putin & Trump in an effort against ISIS/Talibon which proliferated under Obama and his insane “nation building” utilizing Soros’ close direction. Racial tensions have also proliferated under Obama which will now begin a reversal – finally. Can’t wait to get thecrepairs underway. Obama should just stay on vacation in Hawaii dor the balance of his lame duck. Good riddens!

  12. stormchaser80llc says:

    The market sure has been a yawner of late. I still feel a lower low in SPX (hourly) is needed to create positive divergences for the next uptrend. SPX Daily continues to need a higher high put in as there were no negative divergences at recent highs. A lower $VIX is needed to re-establish positive divergences as well.

    Legacy swing signals continue to point to a neutral position, though the newer ensemble is 100% bullish (999/999 member).

    Perhaps we continue to see a sideways market for the rest of this quiet week. Monday is a holiday, and next week wouldn’t be surprised to see a several percent correction before the uptrend resumes.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  13. “In summary, the GDX bulls need to make a stand here. The $18.60 level should be defended, and I expect we can see a bounce from these levels. Unfortunately for bulls, there will be battles above as the bears will press to defend $20.45 and $22.50. The GDX bulls must win these battles if we want to resume the bull market that started earlier this year. A close above $22.50 would present big trouble for bears, and would likely fuel a desperate short covering rally. If the bears were covering their shorts into lower prices, I would be more reserved about the potential for a short squeeze (if we see a reversal). The fact that the bears are adding to shorts this week, shows me that they are feeling invincible, and beginning to get greedy.”
    —Marketwatch analyst. (I could have written this myself though).

  14. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  15. tommyboys says:

    Tony couldn’t be implying nobody listens to Dent are you LOL!

  16. Did silver potentially bottom at 15.68? Interestingly, Gold did not make a new low.

  17. canadianloonie says:

    Tony the count on AMD by Arnout..isn’t it 5 waves by now or where is the intermediate top maybe I’m not reading it right..thank you tony for your generosity and intelligence!

  18. Thanks Tony. If we draw a Fib range between the recent high and the Fed low of 2248, the market spent most of the day between the 78.6% and 61.8% retracement levels.

    In the larger view and excluding the Fed low, the market, thus far, has simply tested the pullback lows around 2254 seen after tagging 2264. So with structure intact and VIX continuing to fall, I think the trend is a grind higher until some of the bigger targets are hit. https://www.tradingview.com/x/t6mBtPuM/

    Interesting thoughts from Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-after-election-ray-dalio

  19. Back from the precipice on PMs today.What will they do with the reprieve?Encouraging buying but only if they make a move to 20.Good luck all.

  20. captbara says:

    9 million SPY print at 226.18. Big action coming soon

  21. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, happy Solstice!

  22. llerias7 says:

    Tony, for min iii of minor 3 of Int. 3 the rise should not be a bit faster?

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