Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open/close in quiet trading, DOW +40

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened two points above Friday’s SPX 2058 close. After a retest of SPX 2058 in the opening minutes the market rallied to 2267 by 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 2260 by noon, the market bounced to 2266 just past 2pm, then dropped to 2259 by 3:30. At 1:30 a speech from FED chair Yellen was released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20161219a.htm. A bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2263.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold added $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. No economic reports until Wednesday.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 2267, then pulled back and remained in the 2258-2267 range for the rest of the day. The short term action still looks choppy since the uptrend high at SPX 2278. The market does not appear to have any conviction to go higher or lower. It appears to be seeking a catalyst before the holiday weekend. Short term support remains at SPX 2248 and the SPX 2230’s, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Short term momentum touched overbought at today’s high then backed off to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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112 Responses to Monday update

  1. captbara says:

    Bull flag. Now back to sleep.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    The main reason I cannot see a P3 rise is there’s no workers. I asked TC where the workers would come from and never got a clear answer. Now somebody has written an article stating my view. Nobody can find help which suggests ‘peak employment’.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/there-are-plenty-of-jobs-out-there-america

    • blackjak100 says:

      By the way I’m in the housing industry and we started having this issue 3 yrs ago and still have it.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Yes if you look at raw fundamentals I’d agree but then again the market has been a runaway freight train for 7 years with little to no fundamentals driving it then either. If you just take TC at his word and trade what’s in front of you, then there should be no concern of whether this is P3 or not. If you’re using your own metrics to get in/out of trades, and the metrics are saying sell, but TC’s count is somewhere in P3, you still sell, but perhaps with a bit more caution like the rest of the smart traders. This is what makes a bull market, as the shorts are concerned with being overly aggressive, and usually get stopped out at BE with their trailers.

        • blackjak100 says:

          All I said is the top tick for bull market will be in 2017. I’ve stated this for almost a year now with price target 2350-2500. there is clearly still upside left in this market. The link to article supports my view which means this can’t be a P3 rise. It has no affect on my trading.

    • scottycj1 says:

      BJ im in the same camp….too many cycles say we cant be in a P3…..more likely P5

  3. CampFreddie says:

    I’ve been bullish since mid Feb, but I have to agree with “newbie” that sentiment charts like this one are running a little hot.

  4. fionamargaret says:

    I had just asked Tony, if UCO suggests 19 (and it is 11 at the moment), what does that suggest for the oil price….and then Kimble sends me this…

  5. CB says:

    Happy holidays all! GLTA & enjoy the surge 🙂

  6. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/mBvHrU?image

    DOW FUTURES

    another page from the ..”.you cant make this stuff up ” file

    extension long target is 19999 /YM
    or around 20060 cash
    when this extension long fails…..
    support is about 900 points lower

  7. Seasonal bullishness for stocks,is all this is.Separate from the rest of the year,If there were this many bulls in February,there’d be a 10% correction.But 65% bulls in Dec or 70%–is normal.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    micro 3 of minute iii of minor 3 of Int iii. Oh so Bullish! 😉
    $BPNYA @ 70.44 ~ extended would be +80 (not there yet)
    http://schrts.co/lyKHqA
    GL & Have a great holiday everyone.

  9. vivelaamo says:

    I’ve come to the conclusion Newbie is just a wind up merchant. He is long everything really!

  10. captbara says:

    Trump winning again by an even bigger margin can only make the market go higher 🗽🇺🇸

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Everybody expects Dow 20,000. Everybody expects Santa Rally into new year. Everybody expects gold to get crushed. Are these the same people who expected Hillary to win the election?

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Gold been respecting that channel since 14th November. Wouldn’t dare go long until it’s broken.

  13. phil1247 says:

    fotis

    /gc 1117 next target …u still short?

  14. Harry Dent just turned bull–until May and 21500 by then.

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Santa never lets us down 😊

  16. kvilia says:

    Hey, learned, last support for GDX is 18.7, right? So we are right there. If it does not hold, that’s it.

    • Pretty much.All those indexes I posted charts on,like HUI (175)and GLD (110)already broke down.They would have to get above those levels to be in the least bit hopeful.Gap on GDX at 20 should have attempted to have been filled–at the very least.The only positive news is bulls are at 4% on gold.So much for sentiment.See how it goes today.Could be one of those 7% down days if 18.68 breaks.


      • Someone on goldtadise made the comment that gold NEVER went more than 6 weeks straight down as it just has–since the peak of 1900.All previous periods like that were followed by strong quick rallies.Problem is,everyone is looking for a repeat of last year.Not the same setup.Imho.But with everyone so bearish,maybe a small rally can happen in the next month.

        • fionamargaret says:

          UGLD says 4, but if I eyeball the pattern, it seems like it might have a chance from here…..see what you think….or are you just interested in GDX..??

  17. vivelaamo says:

    For those that follow Ira you will have noticed that the stochastic on both Dow and SPX has been ’embedded’ for over a week. Another attempt at touching the top BB is not out the question and this could even be done over the holiday period with a slow low volume grind up. Lets face it, we’ve seen it over and over again. All the best.

  18. SpX going to grind higher?I see gold is looking gravity prone tonight,while the dollar/yen ramps up after a brief rest.That’s it from here.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Yes of course because I was considering it again…
      Page may be right suggesting 3 for NUGT…..my numbers say 0….nah.

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Tony, I found this study of cycles interesting, and think the timeframe is somewhat similar to your ideas…..up until 2018, then down to 2021, then up….think we will all wrap up in this move!
    Scroll down to the third chart.
    http://studyofcycles.blogspot.ca/
    Thanks Trader Joe.

  20. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX is testing potential triangle and dominant trend line support (Chart 1). Tracing the 2016 advance (Chart 2).
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/12/market-timing-update-121916.html

  21. Thanks Tony for your always useful insight. In my first comment yesterday I had a conviction of,say 60%, we would make lower lows.

    In my second comment I offered what I believe to be the prevailing sentiment among market strategists and suggested much of the noise could be broken down into whether this pullback is consolidation of gains or part of a correction.

    Now I’m inclined to think current softness is part of a consolidation process with odds slightly favoring the upside owing to historically strong seasonality and, possibly, Trump’s win in the College. The NYT reports that he has over the required 270 electoral votes.

    And VIX and other measures of fear have not validated recent softness, leaving a broken correlation

    But I still believe we will see problems towards the end of January to early February as Trump begins to engage with congress.

  22. stormchaser80llc says:

    So I have been pretty nice this year, we’ll see if Santa brings me his rally!

    On balance not a lot of changes today. Still a lot more to be bullish about than bearish. Still need to make the lower low on $VIX. SPX hourly still looks like it needs to make a lower low, before an new uptrend (above 2270) can be sustained. Also bullish, the Daily SPX chart did not make negative divergences at the highs last Tuesday.

    All 999 ensemble members remain bullish with the legacy signals suggesting neutral positioning is best. My proprietary Technicals Model was slightly higher today, but I’d like to see a bit more improvement before considering a late stage rally has been started.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  23. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Spx up – down – up – down… now slight downtrend and possible breakdown if price follows the white arrows down through the red lines in indicator charts:
    Spx hourly futures –

    • fionamargaret says:

      Good stuff Locan….I like when you are around.
      The US are now talking 50/100 year bonds, like I thought might be up for consideration…interesting….I do like when Tony digs into the bond market, and hope he does that regularly….

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..you did notice my posting Sibelius in the last week….not many Nordic composers.
      I really like him…..like looking at a Constable painting….you have to have a strong string section, because he makes full use of percussion….
      Hope all is well with you…Sweden seems to be having a few minor problems……

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