Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 housing starts (1090K v 1323K) and building permits (1201K v 1229K) were reported lower. The market opened 6 points above yesterday’s SPX 2262 close, then immediately began to pullback on this options expiration Friday. The pullback was choppy with the SPX hitting 2257 by 11:30, bouncing to 2264 by noon, and then hitting 2254 in the last hour of trading. Then the market bounced to end the week at SPX 2258.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds slipped 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.05, Gold rallied $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 and 2286 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 61.0% v 59.7%, and the Q4 GDP estimate remained unchanged at 2.6%.

After Tuesday’s uptrend high at SPX 2278 the market sold off on Wednesday when the FED announced its first rate hike in one year. The low on Wednesday was SPX 2248. Since then the market has bounced around in a choppy pattern: 2265-2250-2272-2254. After a nearly 200-point rally this pullback looks like a normal resetting of overbought conditions during an uptrend. Best to your pre-holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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36 Responses to Friday update

  1. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Year End Possibilities (12/16/16)
    If stocks track the Decennial Pattern into the end of the year, they may be open to a pullback/consolidation (Chart 1), although January in year 7 looks quite bullish again (+5%).
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/12/mtu-weekend-ed-year-end-possibilities.html

  2. blackjak100 says:

    Seems like a shock the market rose 200%+ during the Obama administration. Now I’m thinking it will be a shock when the market falls during the trump administration.

  3. torehund says:

    ..just a video among others, so we may get a global view of whats going on.

    • tony caldaro says:

      During the great depression the US was building, building, building. The Empire State building, for example, was built in the 1930’s and was not fully occupied until the 1950’s.
      The East is simply catching up to the West because Trade has made them wealthy.

    • Thanks, Torehund, for this informative video putting a lot of puzzle pieces into place. – Otherwise we’re still just on the program: “See no evil, hear no evil ….!”
      The point in question here was, I think, China is still ABLE to build, whereas we still have to see if the same can be said of the US under Trump. Unless he in the end just plays along with the “US-Patriarchs” (Rothchild, Soros, D. Rockefeller, Clinton & Co.(?), aka “Illuminati”) like all the others since the Kennedys…? If he does play along, then most of his stated “programs” during the election were just rhetorical tricks. I think the grass-roots movement in this election was namely exactly a rejection of the rule of these “Patriarchs” in Washington and elsewhere. What will happen then if the American public realizes that they have once again just been “sold down the river”?
      This contribution is worth hearing in its ENTIRETY and not just the introductory points about China building…!

    • Thanks, Torehund, for this informative video putting a lot of puzzle pieces into place. – Otherwise we’re still just on the program: “See no evil, hear no evil ….!”
      The point in question here was, I think, China is still ABLE to build, whereas we still have to see if the same can be said of the US under Trump. Unless he in the end just plays along with the “US-Patriarchs” (Rothchild, Soros, D. Rockefeller, Clinton & Co.(?)) like all the others since the Kennedys…? If he does play along, then most of his stated “programs” during the election were just rhetorical tricks. I think the grass-roots movement in this election was namely exactly a rejection of the rule of these “Patriarchs” in Washington and elsewhere. What will happen then if the American public realizes that they have once again just been “sold down the river”?
      This contribution is worth hearing in its ENTIRETY and not just the introductory points about China building…!

      • That was “LOCAN.BBS”– just logged in under another account (Facebook). Somehow I always get censored out here, when I use the word “Illum***i” (in my original contribution). Tony, just a coincidence?

        • tony caldaro says:

          coincidence
          have no problem with people trying to illuminate their minds
          but when it comes at the expense of others,
          it’s their egos and bank accounts they are trying to light up not their minds

  4. CampFreddie says:

    Looks like Mom & Pop are finally entering the market. As usual they are very late to the party and probably buying the “top tick” .

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Gap and go Monday.

  6. Thanks Tony another inside day with a lower high and a higher low, revealing little.

    There is a potential descending triangle on the 30 min charts but VIX was lower than yesterday and there was both economic and geo-political news complicating analysis.
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfMr89UG/

    If and when we get below 2252, I’ll likely take this potential pullback a bit more seriously. If it does not, it may suggest the market is correcting through both time and price, something quite common.

    New home cobstruction disappointed but this is a noisy series often influenced by multi-familt construction. Permits, though fell far less……….around 5% compared to the fall in starts of 19%

    As to geo political tensions, I will quote different sources”

    China “unlawfully seized” the unmanned underwater vehicle Thursday while it was being recovered by a U.S. Navy oceanographic survey ship during routine operations 50 nautical miles northwest of Subic Bay in the Philippines, according to a Defense Department statement.

    China claims more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, where it has constructed artificial islands and built up its military presence. On Thursday, China confirmed a report that it had installed weapons on the islands it has developed in the sea, with a Defense Ministry statement describing the arms as a “slingshot” to fend off threats, according to the New York Times.

    The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said this week that “China appears to have built significant point-defense capabilities, in the form of large anti-aircraft guns and probably close-in weapons system” at each of its locations in the Spratly Islands.

  7. captbara says:

    If we don’t get to 2230 look for turn around at 2245 ish. That is the TL from 2083 to 2188. Less then 50% retrace would make sense in the heart of this 3rd wave.

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. What I love about this blog is it’s clearly full of posters that really know their stuff. Far more than I could ever know or understand. Yet they are blinded and hindered by their own knowledge. Have a good weekend all.

  9. purplember says:

    thx tony. a pull back to 2220 range would be healthy for market imo. 30 below zero here this weekend. ugh this global warming stinks

  10. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of superb daily OEW updates —appreciate the detailed wave counts.


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