Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open and new highs, DOW +142

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened at 2249 three points above yesterday’s close. Right after the open the market bounced around a bit and then started to drift higher. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported lower: -0.4% v 0.1%, and consumer sentiment was reported higher: 98.0 v 93.8. The market continued to drift up until the rise somewhat accelerated around 1:30. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2260 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.65%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude rose 65 cents, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Today the WLEI was reported at its highest level in 6 years: 59.7 v 58.3, and the Q4 GDP estimate was reported lower: 2.6% v 2.9%.

The market opened higher today, bounced around a bit, then eked out new all time highs before rallying in the afternoon. The market appeared to lose a bit of upside momentum as Europe’s indices were less strong than they had been all week. Nevertheless, a higher high keeps the move toward the OEW 2270 pivot on track. There is, however, a distinct short term negative divergence on the hourly chart. But no pullbacks yet to suggest it might be taking effect. Spending some time on the Saeculum and the 4th turning – 1st turning controversy in the weekend update. As usual this is only my view based on the probabilities as I see them. Others will of course have other views and that is what makes markets. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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28 Responses to Friday update

  1. TONY I beleive the nya composite is within spitting distance or made a new closing high today I know you kept saying no chance of a final top till that occurred

  2. Thanks Tony and I’m looking forward to the weekend edition. While my long term target is in the 2325 area, in the short term we may experience minor technical difficulties at 2262 particularly if overlaid by calculated resistance as we saw at 2252. 2262 is the 1.68 extension of the initial reaction to Trump’s win. Then it should move to the 2277-2282 area and correct in some fashion before resuming its march higher to 2325, comfortably within your range. But, as we all know, things can easily change. Lastly, Tom McClellan makes the interesting argument that this move up would have occurred irrespective of who won the election and that its possible that we may want to sell the inauguration after buying the election. I’m not convinced of his arguments, but his views deserve respect. In my mind, it will really depend upon where the market is and the attending context.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Tom must be a democrat. HRC didn’t even have an economic policy, let alone one as economically friendly as this one.
      But do like his inauguration as a potential target for an uptrend high.
      CNBC is calling this the Trump rally.
      Started when he was elected, might end when he puts his hand on the bible.

      • I don’ have a chart to share but I have seen presidential election charts and can say that recent gains outstrip typical historical increases, suggesting that investors see something different with Trump which reinforces your point. As we have discussed before, construction a new economic and financial model is underway but in the short term the market will likely overshoot as the pace of construction may disappoint. Tom on CNBC: . Should the link fail you can go to McClellan Financial Publications.

      • If there’s a top at the inauguration, that will be a short term top.
        Never been a POTUS that was so successful.
        Even G. Washington got most of his money from the King (French and Indian Wars), and his wife.
        I saw Kevin O’Leary last week call Wilbur Ross St. Wilbur. He says the guy is brilliant.
        Also sounds like Carl Icahn is in on most of the decision making, but is avoiding all the press. He takes the back entrance to TT. No elevator cam for Carl.

        I remember Steve Balmer talking about dealing with IBM in the early ’80s. He said it was like riding a 3,000 pound bull. Just hold on, because falling off would be worse.


      • alexhartley1 says:

        Tony do you believe the potential uptrend high in January would likely be the end of minute 3 or minor 3? I’ve read the 18th of Jan +/- being a cycle date so it would chime with an inauguration top. Thanks

  3. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and all on board.

  4. vivelaamo says:

    It doesn’t really make sense anymore. But who cares while making it money right? Unfortunately you can’t help but feel it will end bad for a lot of people that never hurt anyone. Why I’m benefitted financial from the move since the election. I do feel uncomfortable by it.

  5. vivelaamo says:

    It doesn’t really make sense anymore. But who cares while making it money right? Unfortunately you can’t help but feel it will end bad for a lot of people that never hurt anyone.

    • “They” never let you have fun for too long a time,if you happen to be on the right side.Goes up 14 pts a day,then in 2 days–down a 100.Hope this lasts a little while longer but…

    • torehund says:

      Lots of scenarios arising in Europe, bail ins, bail outs, banning exchange into Usd, freezing deposit accounts. Freezing assets etc. Process is ongoing, and maybe we can not sell our stocks during a bail in period ? These are crazy times Primary III 🙂 When the general public wakes up the gross move will appear.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Europe was +5.5% this week.
        It’s good to have lots of fear during a bull market

        • torehund says:

          Cash is like quick sand all over the place nowadays. like owning a part of the Emperors clothing. And when the Emperor also is the issuer of bonds, then the choice is easy you enter the raft that leaks the least 🙂 And that raft has a sturdy direction away from the public.

  6. captbara says:

    Buy stocks everyday mode is fun. Enjoy the weekend all.

  7. llerias7 says:

    Tony, if minute iii = minute i (310 pts) implies a top for min. iii at 2317-20…is that your count?

  8. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony ”Others have different views and that is why this is so much FUN! 😉

  9. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW updates. Looking forward to your Saeculum thoughts this weekend, already started to brew the coffee.

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