SHORT TERM: higher open and new highs, DOW +142
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened at 2249 three points above yesterday’s close. Right after the open the market bounced around a bit and then started to drift higher. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported lower: -0.4% v 0.1%, and consumer sentiment was reported higher: 98.0 v 93.8. The market continued to drift up until the rise somewhat accelerated around 1:30. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2260 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.65%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude rose 65 cents, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Today the WLEI was reported at its highest level in 6 years: 59.7 v 58.3, and the Q4 GDP estimate was reported lower: 2.6% v 2.9%.
The market opened higher today, bounced around a bit, then eked out new all time highs before rallying in the afternoon. The market appeared to lose a bit of upside momentum as Europe’s indices were less strong than they had been all week. Nevertheless, a higher high keeps the move toward the OEW 2270 pivot on track. There is, however, a distinct short term negative divergence on the hourly chart. But no pullbacks yet to suggest it might be taking effect. Spending some time on the Saeculum and the 4th turning – 1st turning controversy in the weekend update. As usual this is only my view based on the probabilities as I see them. Others will of course have other views and that is what makes markets. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend