Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower opening then new highs, DOW +65

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and continued their winning streak gaining 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 258K v 268K. The market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2241 close, bounced to 2244, then pulled back to 2238 by past 10am. Then it began to rally. At 2pm the SPX hit another new high at 2252 then started to pullback. The pullback lasted until just before 3pm when the SPX hit 2243, then a bounce into the close ended the day at 2246.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Tomorrow: consumer sentiment and wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced around a bit in the first half-hour, then rallied to new highs into the afternoon at SPX 2252. Quite a rally from last Thursday’s SPX 2187 low. Europe has also been rallying as it has gained 0.9% or more four days in a row. Today’s pullback from SPX 2252 to 2243 is the largest pullback since last Friday’s SPX 2198-2188 pullback. This suggests the market may have just traced out 4 small waves from last Thursday’s low. As overbought as short term momentum was today it was not surprising. Looks like there is a good chance of the market hitting the SPX 2270 pivot range soon. Short term support is at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Short term momentum declined from extremely overbought to just under overbought this afternoon. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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101 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Yes, have a great weekend, to all – Tony and all the contributors….end…

  2. phil1247 says:

    ding

    esh7 2250 target hit …..what a struggle

  3. captbara says:

    DXY may shoot straight to 104 next week. Surprise 1% hike instead of 0.25 would be crazy. $$$

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Hoping for some profit taking up to next week and then some volatility on the FED announcement.

  5. tommyboys says:

    Trumpster got Consumer Confidence near a 12 year high…MI Sentiment above expectations at 98.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-victory-has-consumer-confidence-near-a-12-year-high-152758389.html

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Phil – what do you think of OPK?

  7. phil1247 says:

    taking profits on EUO ( double short euro)

    third time we are at this level

    lets see if the euro can break support this time

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Well I was surprised by the strength of this move without a two or three percent pullback just don’t know how anyone buys the verticals that have been exhibited as of late. I’d be curious when the Russell went up 20% in a month (not to mention 15 days in a row) when we weren’t coming from a crisis or a bear market. Like any wise minded investor want to buy R2K today? Lol this move into industrials financials transports and small caps is so over extended. Goldman Sachs is a lumpy earnings company with long term risk due to the nature of its business. It should have a nine multiple. 40% in one month when it isn’t even a bank (higher interest margin bank rationalization) is so dumb. Just shocked how people have chased a mediocre stock

    • scottycj1 says:

      Your words say it all………….”just don’t know”

    • phil1247 says:

      verticals are what i am always looking to buy

      i call them extensions
      elliott wavers call them third waves

      who wants to get chopped up in a morass like crude?…(widowmaker )
      or some other chop fest?

    • EL MATADOR says:

      The global govt push towards cashless societies is forcing people (meaning including non-investors) to look for alternative places to store their money. One of these alternatives is pour your money into world safest stock markets.

      I do not know if this cashless society push is resulting in a new bull market or the last euphoria mania run up of an extended bull market. Nonetheless, IMO, we should see a big market plunger sometime within the President Trumps Honeymoon period. Just my 2 meaningless cents. 😉

    • tommyboys says:

      We ARE coming from a crisis. 4th turn to an “Awakening” – new 1st turn. Would expect this kind of reaction…and much more.

      • lcd00 says:

        You can’t be serious that you believe we are currently entering an “Awakening” period. It appears you live in a bubble based on many of your comments (Robotics adding jobs, rather than eliminating them etc.) “Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.” We are on the threshold of greater destabilization domestically and globally, not an end to crisis. You wear blinders.

  9. Im done for the year, Good luck to everyone and best holiday wishes, See ya all next year.

  10. Well the first -div appears on the hourly.See what THAT does.20 S&P points?

  11. tommyboys says:

    ECRI WLI Exploding. Weekly Leading Index increases to 143.2 while the growth rate rises to 9.7%!!

  12. Some analyst on Foxbiz made an interesting point about no one wants to sell anything this year,because NEXT year,a lower tax rate will be a better time to sell.Makes sense.

  13. phil1247 says:

    /GC

    next target 1148

    • floyd drummer says:

      phil,

      ….just wanted to say that i do enjoy your comments:

      my favorite phil-ism: …..when someone was trying to project correlations of the dollar with gold, ..oil, and anything and everything else…

      ‘i don’t do correlations.’ (paraphrased)

      ….love that. thanks.

      • phil1247 says:

        welcome

        the problem with correlations
        is that they become most obvious
        when they are about to blow up in your face

  14. phil1247 says:

    ROLL HD ROLL

    /esh7 targets now 2250 then 2255

  15. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY
    Just wondering if this is the start of a C&H.EL MAT and I saw this pattern in gold back in its early stages in January.Sure looks like a possibility.

  16. kvilia says:

    All right fellas – I’m short Russell and Crude, long miners. Santa – come over here.
    Cheers and good trading, mates.

    • Page says:

      yes, good time to go long gold miners. nugt may go down high 7sh and jnug high 6sh.

      • phil1247 says:

        page disagree

        nugt …target near zero

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..well Page I had a bid in for NUGT @ 7.80, and got filled, so the voice screaming beside you for the miners to do well, is me…..we won’t stay until zero though….

        • Page says:

          going higher from here 🙂

          • Bud Fox says:

            ref NUGT appears to have 3 wave down, at 3pm est today. Thew downside
            is not great in my view. But, the upside, could be quite good, patience is
            always key in trading. Simply, because there are not perfect traders, except in heaven.

            • Just my two cents of GDX:If gold/GDX/NuGT is going to have a rally of some kind,day of FOMC is the time and would carry on the week after.GDP is forecast at 2.6 %.That correlates to a 10 point rally in DXY?Trump’s infrastructure won’t even get going for a year or two.Obamacare can’t change for 3 years.But that’s December for you.

              • fionamargaret says:

                I have just been listening to a guy who is bullish on gold….says we are way underestimating inflation….so let’s just root for that…thanks Learned, Page, Kvilia and Bud…..well, everyone…..have a great weekend xx

  17. Pajama crowd can finally get some rest, Futures seem to remain flat over night and at about 5 AM they start to creep higher every morning. should be an interesting day, wonder if we will see some profit taking today, Then again why bother markets are going higher.

    Everyone have a profitable day

  18. Bud Fox says:

    Most of us know, the SP500 index is a lot higher today, than it was on Jan 1st.
    But….what I wish to know is — Is there a “Bear” market in our future? For,
    I only can remember the SP low, of 2009….

  19. “Another BAML take on 2017 suggests the S&P 500 SPX,could go as high as 2,700 — or fall as low as 1,600, as CNBC has noted.”
    Bank of America/Merrill Lynch prediction for next year.
    Or maybe both–several times…lol.Must have had an early Christmas party to release that with a straight face.

  20. stormchaser80llc says:

    Continued bullish price action again today, but oddly $VIX was higher. Still believe a new low in $VIX is needed to form a positive divergence on RSI. Negative divergences on all indicators for SPX hourly either means a turn lower is coming or further consolidation is occurring. Interestingly, many negative divergences were wiped out on HYG:IEF on a day that it hit a new 2016 high, very bullish for risk on.

    My proprietary Technicals Model continued its surge higher today, and I will be watching to see if it exceeds its November peak in the coming days. All 999 ensemble members are bullish, while the legacy LONG signal went back to a BUY today. Go bulls!

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  21. Bud Fox says:

    Fionamargaret ….Do yo have any thoughts, on GLD. At this time?

  22. kvilia says:

    Bulls euphoria. Waves rule the world – until they don’t, then they get re-adjusted. Just the way it was this year, no less, no more. Until then – enjoy the ride, its indeed well deserved, kudos to Tony and the gang.

  23. Hugh Jazole says:

    I’ve seen the date 2030 mentioned a few times here as a major turning point. Perhaps others are aware of this as well?

    https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

  24. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  25. Thanks Tony and your instincts have proven prescient. The present wave is interesting and is drawing its strength from possibly different sources. Yesterdays high of 2142 (round numbers) is pretty close to a 200% extension of the pullback from 2214 to 2187….about 27 points. If doubled and added to 2187, you get 2241. And remember the 100 point gain that took us to 2182 which pulled back to 2152, 100 added to that would be 2252. But there was also calculated resistance in the same area making it a possible coincidence. Ultimately, though, I would believe the current wave should draw its strength from the recent pullback, making the extensions of 2156 and 2282 levels of keen interest. And one happens to very close to your pivot at 2277. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QD5oOKhZ/

  26. No real fear until 2300 level is reached.
    Minute 1 was 131 point so minute 3 from 2188 is 2319 then a 40 point pull back and up again 5 th waves have been shorter. Only question realy is do we get a pull back from 2152 to like 2130 or was that it today. Over 2152 and it’s off to the races again.
    Good luck all

  27. vivelaamo says:

    Thinking long term. I expect a breakout next week.

  28. vivelaamo says:

    2270 is almost guaranteed. Probably some time me next week. The question is what next. My take is we keep going up with very shallow pbs or consolidation. This is just the beginning of something spectacular.

  29. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    Chart 1 – tracking the post-election rally.
    Chart 2 – upward breakout at various degrees.
    Chart 3 – tracking the post-2009 rally.
    In Chart 2 and Chart 3, blue (b) = 1.382 x blue (a) at 2259. SPX hit a high of 2251.69 today.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/12/market-timing-update-12816.html

  30. llerias7 says:

    Tony, do you think 2270oew will mark the end of minute 3?

  31. Have been revisiting my charts and unfortunately have to add that on the monthly basis there is an important resistance at 2306 ES that represent a profit taking spot of importance. Since the retrace was protected by a wall of buy orders placed at 1795 ES there is little doubt that the profit taking, or a wall of sells will be encountered at the level. Not far of the the Tony pivot. The take the money and run situation. Also it will be close to 500 points gain from the beginning of the year…. And since we seams to be in a climax run, it comes logical to exercise caution and wait to get over it before adding on any positions and to tight stops accordingly. If even greed should becomes strong…
    Lets see how we will get there but are left only few points, only 56/7.

  32. 123 abc says:

    Speculating that the Trump rally is now complete; attempted a short at the close with a stop at today’s high.


  33. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Playing tag with this uptrend has been like taking candy from a baby. One can sit and doubt the market’s exuberance, but in the meantime, take the money and run.

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