Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open then Minute iii kicks-in, DOW +298

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and had a strong showing for the third day in a row +1.6%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight and the market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2212 close. After bouncing around in a narrow 2 point range the opening half-hour the market started to rally. The rally continued throughout the day as the SPX hit 2242 around 3:30. Then dipped to close at SPX 2241.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.25%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude slid $1.05, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before the open, then weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened relatively flat today then the continued strength in Europe spilled over into the US markets. Before 11am the SPX made an all time new high, confirming Minute iii was underway, and then surged higher. With barely more than 3 point pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 2242 around 3:30. The DOW/TRAN also made new all time highs, but the international NYSE has still not. Short term support rises to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Short term momentum was extremely overbought at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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151 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    I actually think we could pull back next wed on the rate hike announcement. But it will be purely down to the volatility at the time of a big announcement. In my opinion if you are short use the time to get out and if you long just add to them.

    Then we can all have a Merry Christmas 😊

  2. Page says:

    Gold will shine next week, I will buy ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

  3. H D says:

    An Election stat. in 2012 from the Nov low to the Dec high(rally) was 7.5% and now in 2016 the Nov low to Dec high(thus far) is also 7.5%

  4. vivelaamo says:

    OMG have R2k reallly just pulled back 10 points?

  5. stcoleridge says:

    R2K high 1386.45 today. Someone nailed that earlier in the week with their 1386 call.

  6. Scott Ford says:

    Where is all of the oil money moving to now that UWTI/DWTI trading ends in an hour? next best leverages?

  7. phil1247 says:


    extension long support is now 600 points below todays peak

    look away bulls ……nothing to see here

  8. Entry long rises 4 points ES at 2232 and SPY on proportion, 1/2 point. # feeling better now

    Time for a little negativity (sobriety).Schiller CAPE index higher than 2002,2007.Only late 1990s mania was higher.Meaningless?We’ll find out.

  10. alexhartley1 says:

    USD looks like it is on its way to parity with the EUR.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Need to do some analysis on how long it has taken since 2008 to backtest new ATH’s in major US indices. From the top of my head didn’t we break out in 2013 and never looked back? Why can’t that happen this time round?

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Maybe more need to take your OEW course. 😉

    IWM ~ Pushing above the UTL into YR3 @ 138.32
    Observe any retest of TL for support or failure.

    SPY ~ Compare the lower left of this chart to the upper right = Bullish

  13. blackjak100 says:

    When the VIX goes up along with markets, this is usually a sign the ralleye could be in trouble

  14. Millan Tomic says:

    Could this be a leading diagonal as Wave 1 or Wave A?

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    amazing run here especially on the R2k but its about at the upper end of where I thought it might go (138 to 140) on IWM and S&P 2240 to 2270

    VIX up two days in a row in up markets?

    I am looking at the bank stocks for instance. Seriously GS up 40% in a month? Stocks have gone vertical with numerous gap ups. Stock mirror gravity inevitably. They cant sustain straight ups forever. Although the trend is clearly up, this needs a pullback big time. Its just silly here. Russell up 20% in a month? This isn’t short covering from the bottom of a BEAR. That kind of move in a bull market in a month’s time frame is simply too much too soon.

  16. Tony, I am a borne bull, but I am afraid the Market is in 5th speed.

  17. kvilia says:

    Has anyone checked VIX today?

  18. purplember says:

    CL dropped $1 in like 5 minutes but i don’t see any news. Jan 1st symbol will be changed to WM

  19. 6.9 earthquake 150 miles off the California coast in the area of Ferndale.

  20. phil1247 says:

    only 10% long spx now

    dow extension long support is 500 points below here

    ie its in rally or die mode

  21. kvilia says:

    Just shorted Russell.

  22. DXY tested 100 overnight again and Draghi gave it a boost.Just wanted to share a bit of statistic about Dow Theory–which is:After a confirmation,the next two weeks (on average) drops .6%.After that,a slow methodical monthly gain–with an 8% gain in a year.
    My strategy on gold/dollar must be narrowed to this:I don’t believe PMs can rally AT THIS POINT without the dollar pulling under 100.I m going to cut my GDX from 30 to 10%) until a)DXY breaks 100 b)gold sustains over 1180 .Also pre Fed meeting( 7 days out)are usually gold selling, up to the meeting.If gold DOES sell off prior to the Fed,I’ll buy the day before.
    No upside for gold until those things happen.I see it’s hanging in there today,but that’s not enough imho.Good luck all.

  23. mcgcapital says:

    Cashed FTSE longs and flipped short. Pullback due as long as 6930/40 pivot holds as resistance

  24. Market seems like it is up a lot, but on the long term chart, maybe not up that much yet.
    Three big swings (at least two) in the last 35 years.
    MACD tops out at near 150.
    RSI (5) tops at over 90.

    Thanks Tony for the great blog.

  25. When the Market get very good, a lot use the technic to sell frightening sheety news to scare out people and to have the max number of stupid sellers.
    With no sellers the Market can’t rise as fast since they need to constantly blow stops plus they have to rob someone of their money. So more sillies are around and faster they make money.
    Please stop selling idiotic news, and try to be smart as a fox and fast as a snake or you will end up frustrated, sad and poor.

  26. IMVHO it is very easy to count this as P5 and close to the end of cycle 1, especially considering that the market is going parabolic in some time of blow off stage. Furthermore, Donald Trump sold all his stock, it does matter what the reason is. When President Elect sells all his stock its time to take note. With all due respect, just because one person is counting one way which seems to fit perfectly with history and Elliott wave it doesn’t mean it’s the right count. A strong move in the opposite direction could stun the bull. President Obama basically called the SPX 667 bottom with his timely advice. Interest rates will go up. The dollar will strengthen even more. Do we abandon logic, close our eyes and invest into an overvalued market. Does anyone think that this is a final move? Absolutely not. If so share your opinion or the link I’d like to know. Then maybe I won’t be so bearish.

    • Tara Wade says:

      Trump sold ALL his stock – presumably worth hundreds of millions, if not more.
      Where on Earth is your evidence for such a reckless claim?

      • Pretty sure he had said he had sold all publicly traded stocks, at least 1/2 year ago.
        I think he said capital gain was ~$40Million.
        If he bought those stocks ’09-’10, maybe a $100Million portfolio.
        But guys like that (Real Estate developers) are never big stock investors.
        Much more control with RE (assuming a high skill level), and much more leverage.

        Back in the day, I was Series 7 registered.
        I had a customer (another NYC real estate guy) who had 250 positions in his Muni portfolio.
        But NO stocks.

    • He had too, 1 conflict of interest, 2 finance his campaign. Old news at least 1 week old

    • CampFreddie says:

      Menachem – Interesting thanks.

  27. captbara says:

    Dax wants to break back into the 2011 – 2015 channel that it lost back in Jan. 3rd times a charm I think.

    • lcd00 says:

      Tommyboy’s logic as he explained it is that millions of Americans will be designing, programming, and manufacturing these robots, as if each one needed a unique creator, like a mom and a dad.

  28. lu1977jp says:

    Hi Master,

    Where do we stand with USD/JPY? Time for a retracement? If yes, down to where 1.07?



  29. Long time lurker here. Anyone have opinions on the benefits/fallacies of Fibonacci time ratios for determining extensions – tony, phil, fiona, learned? Much appreciated. Namaste.

  30. stormchaser80llc says:

    Very bullish price action today, but the volume was really muted. Thats strange. Barely any negative divergences at today’s highs on the Daily or Hourly SPX charts, so new highs are still expected. The McClellan still has negative divergences in place, but today we negated negative divergences on New Highs, and most of the %stocks above 20/50 day moving averages, as well as the RSI positive divergence on $VIX hourly.

    I thought a marginal new high would be put in, with the above still showing growing divergences. However, today’s outcome support new highs on SPX ahead. My proprietary Technicals Model had a much better day as one would expect, now up every day since 11/7/2016. We must keep a close eye on it as it has not negated its negative divergences. Finally, all 999 ensemble members remain bullish.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  31. ariez5 says:

    Ah, Euphoria! Where hast thou been all this time?

  32. I decided to look up how the stock market does when certain scenarios take place politically.I was looking for combos of President,House and Senate.I always thought that the split scenario we just had with Dem prez and Repub Congress was the key to stock gains,but it was actually just this:A Republican controlled Senate is the key.Just that circumstance alone cooks up 14% average equity gains…Dem controlled Senate 6%.But a sweep of all three by Republicans is still historically over 10% annually.FWIW.

  33. Gonna sit back till after New Years unless I see some major changes. Hope I didn’t cause too many to waste their precious time reading my dribble. Still too long?

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..precis your facts down and write as if to draw in children….when you write an annual report, and the company head is phoning you to tell you his child won’t stop talking about stuff he knew very little about, you have succeeded…….this is a true story..
      or write just the way you do…nothing wrong with long, if it is interesting.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Gary, at first I thought you were a mad man with your long posts but the more and more I read them the more and more I appreciate your contributions to this site.

    • purplember says:

      out til January. are you going to Trump’s inauguration ?

    • CB says:

      Agree with the other posters here, Gary. I think you tend to apply intellectual standards & sound logic in your arguments. I have no problem with the way you argue or with your delivery and most of the time in fact you remind me of some of my college professors =) We simply learn to do a lot of speed-reading throughout life as we try to learn new things. If someone makes sense, we keep reading what they have to say, and if someone doesn’t, we learn to tune them out. Happens all the time. It’s understandable that if anyone wants to get to the bottom of things, they will try to explain things in detail. I think that’s what you try to do most of the time here.

      It’s also understandable that not everything that gets posted here is of interest to everyone ( for many reasons, incl. lack of time, for instance) Also, lots of traders prefer to express themselves mostly through charts.

      I think you’ll always find some individuals who can relate to your way of analyzing things and who want to learn something from you. And I think that it’s quite generous of you to try to explain things to those who are willing to listen. And asking for our feedback, as you’ve just done, shows that you have lots of self-awareness, which is rare and which is something that some people unfortunately don’t have. Where else do you post Gary, besides here at Tony’s?

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at

  35. Mr C,is this still part of the WROC signal?

  36. vivelaamo says:

    DOW and SPX stronger than the Russel today. Not often that has happens since election. Something to keep an eye on…

    • fionamargaret says:

      …maybe just rotation.
      If we have a weaker dollar, commodities will do better, which opens up different sectors.
      Gold, oil, agriculture, energy.. and is IBB dead….

  37. soulsurfer says:

    Expecting a market turn not until around December 29, with price by then possible around SPX2300-2350. The prior Fibonacci-turn date was December 2, and was nailed to the T.

  38. 123 abc says:

    Think that the fifth of wave-1 is currently in progress, but shall adopt Tony’s count of wave-3 underway if the 2270 pivot is taken out.

  39. Kudos Mr C on nailing the minute 3.GDX dropped below the 20d sma at 21.46,but fought back right to it.Should have done better(with the good start),but we’ll see how it goes tomorrow.Guess the Fed language will be the decider.Later.

  40. purplember says:

    Tony, any concerns with RSI and MACD showing pretty strong -div on weekly and monthly charts ?

  41. phil1247 says:


    the traditional long target from early nov low was hit today at 2241

    next target is the monthly extension long from the feb low at 2268

  42. bfquant says:

    TC. You warned me!

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