Thursday update

SHORT TERM: flat open then mixed market, DOW +68

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 268K v 251K. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2199 close, pulled back to 2196, then rallied to 2203 just past 10am. At 10am construction spending was reported higher: 0.5% v -0.4%, ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 53.2 v 51.6, and auto sales were reported higher. The market then pulled back to SPX 2193 by 11am, bounced to 2199 by 11:30, then hit 2187 at 3:30. Then a bounce to SPX 2191 ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.45%. Bonds dropped 17 ticks, Crude rallied $1.40, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 175K) at 8:30.

The market opened about flat today, bounced around, and then started to pullback. Yesterday’s action in the NDX/NAZ suggested the Minute wave ii we had been awaiting should be underway. Today’s drop to SPX 2187 suggests it is. Despite the pullback in the SPX/NDX/NAZ the DOW remained positive all day. Thought the rally in Crude was the driver, but it was actually the big banks rallying. Support for this Minute ii pullback should be the 2177 pivot range (2170-2184). When it bottoms the entire market is likely to rally in Minute iii. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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108 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Next stop 1200 All Aboard??

    http://invst.ly/2vifp

  2. from monday 2180 to 2220 level and then to 2160 tgt

  3. buy near 2180 on monday for alltimehighs

  4. Would be happier if gold broke above 1180.Dollar will have to drop below 100.60 for that to happen.Later.

  5. phil1247 says:

    /CL

    want to unload all remaining longs on spike up near 52.40

    go crude !

  6. Price prediction short term: SPX should peak by December 19th. Minimum move 2240. Maximum should be around 2300 but I highly doubt it reaches that number. From there we should have a slow rolling over till late January/early February.

  7. llerias7 says:

    The low for the minute ii is being made today…next week rally up to new ATH is “the xmas rally” ( iii of 3 of 3 )…waiting SKlaus coming to town…

  8. phil1247 says:

    DOLLAR

    i find it interesting that with all the hoopla about
    fed raising rates
    strong economy
    yada yada yada

    the /DX has not been able to break the short from 2001 high to 2008 low at 102.25

    until it does the target remains 59

    probably means 2000 dollar gold at least …but i dont do correlations

  9. Bud Fox says:

    Look who is back, again……

  10. Just as suspected, a bad wage number would drop the dollar. just what was needed to spur this bull move higher. I had thought, based on last 2 months, that we were actually going to see much higher wage growth, and the reverse response for the dollar.

    The perfect script for the year end rally to hold up. Hold back the dollar as the stock market marches along. Still see 2240 as the top of this run. Running similar to the last 2 spike moves this year.

    Not yet sure we hit the bottom of this current drop but 2177 does seem as the absolute lows for this cycle.

  11. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: 3 of 3 of 3 of ……???
    spx hourly futures –

  12. captbara says:

    10400 on Dax hit. Vote decides if it holds or not, I guess.

  13. pooch77 says:

    FTSE MIB was so worried about vote that they closed green,imagine that

  14. vivelaamo says:

    I think it will be a NO which will cause a dip in European stocks and a slight pb in US stocks before we continue to grind up for th to santa rally. Brexit was this beginning of the end of the EU in its current form. Sunday’s vote is just a small step in the same direction.

  15. phil1247 says:

    /cL

    sold half uco
    target hit and reversal area here

  16. jobjas says:

    EW analysis of CL

  17. gary61b says:

    maybe 2200 on the es then move down to complete this correction, I like the 2155 level.

  18. The way MY mind works….pollsters say 54% chance of NO.Can they be believed on this vote either?Might be a surprise YES…we’ll see.

    • Nigel Farage predicts NO in Italy.Then he explained,there’s quite an extended process for changing anything.Italian leader could resign–or not and take things into next year.Election not scheduled for 2 years,but could be moved up a year.Markets COULD ignore this either way.

  19. blackjak100 says:

    FWIW, another HO signal occurred yesterday but there’s already an official one on the clock until march 2017.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Crappy inaccurate article, but hey it supports your bullish Gold view, so that’s fine.

      • Haven’t been bullish on gold since it broke 1260 Freddie…just looking for a bounce of a few weeks.

        • kvilia says:

          Learned – we maybe getting our Christmas presents. I’ll check gdx and Nugt charts tonight.

          • fionamargaret says:

            ..count Vive and me in too…I am just buying 1000 and selling when it is up one…not really sophisticated, but if you do it 2/3 times a week…..rent, cable, electricity, car payment…
            Another crazy idea (I am trying to make you all self-sufficient),if you are artsy, take a hairdresser/barber course….meet lots of people..can be done in peoples’ homes (no overheads), take a dog groomer/ clipper course…again can be done in their house or visit a store to do it….
            And then there is the market….don’t try and hit home runs all the time…just make steady income….This way, no matter what life brings, you can be ok. Oh, and always be kind (to a fault)…every person is a potential customer..even on the web. xx

        • fionamargaret says:

          http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
          Carl Futia on gold…..but I find staring at the numbers and memorizing the pattern, you know what is a good price, then just let it go up some, and sell…I am not waiting for CF’s price to buy.

    • tony caldaro says:

      most likely a NO vote without the ramifications mentioned in the article

      • pooch77 says:

        Ha might crash to 2190…how bout that or overnight futes down 800 points trigger curcuit breakers and trigger a 1000 point bounce up into Monday morning open

    • vivelaamo says:

      When I was in Milan last week people I spoke to feared the 5 star movement. (those that could speak English which didn’t seem to be many). It reminded me of people in UK that feared Brexit and people in US that feared Trump.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Also let me just add everything mentioned in that article could cause a crash. It doesn’t mean it has to cause a bear market. Recovery would be quicker than people think.

  20. 9,000 full time jobs created,118,000 part time jobs–according to Fox.

  21. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Unemployment rate drops to 4.6 from 4.9
    Participation rate declines
    Wages drop .1℅
    Previous month readjusted down a chunk yet this month comes in at 179k (from expect Ed 180k)

    That’s not good

    You want participation rate to increase.

    Can’t wait for Golly to your the massive increase in wages

  22. Jobs number not a blowout at 170k.Gold SHOULD rally on that.Whether it WILL…

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Just a general observation regarding gold. The level of bearishness and media calls seem reminiscent of the bottom of a bear markers. Are things really that bad?

    • fionamargaret says:

      Funny you should ask that Vive…I have just finished listening to a commodity guy on Bloomberg (not Currie).
      He says base metals are overpriced and gold is underpriced…I bought NUGT in the 7’s yesterday, with the idea of selling in the 8+ so will see what that does…
      How do you play GLD?
      Gold gets to a level of bearishness that is almost unbearable….penny stocks….and maybe we are going back in that black hole…..I shall look at my numbers tomorrow to see if there is anything I can come up with for you.
      No point in giving just Learned and Kvilia all the drama…

    • fotis2 says:

      Like the level of bullishness on the SPX

      • vivelaamo says:

        True but the SPX has broken out to new ATH’s. Gold isnt even near 2016 lows! Although you wouldn’t think it such has been the reaction.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          And oil was in a death spiral in the twenties and the markets was in a bear at 1810 and Amazon had calls of 1000 and small caps badly lagged the majors and Trump had no shot of winning and Brexit never was going to happen and Janet is never going to rates and my chocolate lab is never going to stop eating food off the counters.

          Ok well my dog really will never stop. That’s true

          • fotis2 says:

            Exactly its like the never ending story at 1810 it was like 666 here we come oil at 26 had a 101% guaranteed date with 11-14.Wonder why so little interest in the Italian referendum although I was sent the customary”Our rates will increase due to the referendum” post from my broker.

  24. fotis2 says:

    CL Well done to Fiona as for me pocket the ego and move on to the next trade..
    Weekly
    http://invst.ly/2vbaf
    Hourly
    http://invst.ly/2vbag

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Fotis.
      Now up to about 65 for oil…I was thinking a small correction first….maybe.
      Hope Blubird and Cosmos are still in UGAZ….totally lucked out in that call.
      Captbara noticed indices askew yesterday as did my sequences, thus my saying a correction was at hand..and to look at the VIX. 123’s charts told the same story.
      Easier to talk after hours…..an 11 year old child…how great is that…xxx

    • fionamargaret says:

      Maybe I should explain…oil price I find goes in bands.
      The last band was 40-50 (which I had mentioned to Fotis)
      Oil had been stuck at 44/45, like forever, so when oil broke through 49, with little momentum, I cashed out….to watch the numbers to know if the price bands had changed.
      Now I mentioned I had sold at 50 (meaning the outer band had been reached). I really am not setting out to get an exact fraction price.
      When I say oil is going to 65, that is what the numbers say, but I have to break that down to oil bands…maybe 45-55 to begin with…I don’t know until a pattern emerges..and oh,.maybe it is not cool to bully..

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    My signals say to stay on the sideline, but all 999 of the ensemble members in testing are still bullish, which is interesting. My proprietary Technicals Model was a little lower today, but ended up better than the SPX price performance, which is bullish.

    The SPX hourly indicates a new low is needed in order to formulate new positive divergences. Similarly, a new high in $VIX is needed to formulate new negative divergences.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  26. Now an enormous -div on daily Trannies.I’ll attempt an 8:29 wake-up for the jobs #.Hope it’s worth waking up for.Later.

  27. CB says:

    Oh look, has GC finally noticed that ugly HnS on the DXY chart?… an OS rally would be really something…

  28. Well with the drop from 2214 to 2190, the easy part is behind us. Likely to see a move up at some point and then complete wave c which might takes us to around 2176/2177 where there is confluence of pivot points and Fib ratios. https://www.tradingview.com/x/aF6eOn1V/

  29. “Gold Selloff May Just be Getting Started”

    “Gold Outlook: Look Out”
    Two headlines I saw on todays Investors.com gold section.

  30. Well, lots of possibilities, if this is indeed minute 2, a .23 correction 30 points brings it to 2083. Today’s close of 2191 8 point lower. I will be in the buy the down by 10 at 10 tomorrow. Good luck all, happy holidays.

  31. Bud Fox says:

    ref Market Risk….Just noted, the QQQ is now. as high as it was in 2000.
    Now, why is that important to me ? Because, in 2000 at the QQQ high,
    a BEAR MARKET evolved…need I say anymore. No…enuf

  32. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Happy Holidays! Almost went long at the close today, with the RUT correction already in a nifty ABC, but decided to hold out through tomorrow’s action, maybe even into next Monday, before seriously considering another position long.

  33. mcgcapital says:

    https://northmantrader.com/2016/11/21/empty-promises/

    Worth a read on why a Trump presidency won’t be all that for stocks

    • Nothing to do with timing. Deficit under Obama fell by 69 percent. The same huge reduction was during Clinton’s administration. Looked what happened when the big spender from the Republicans took over. I thought the party philosophy was reverse?
      if we survived at 1 trillion plus we can with Trumps open purse policy. It will take real inflation with rate hikes to cause another problem. that’s will not happen overnight. Even if everything Trump proposes gets passed immediately it will not cause a negative market reaction. There is nothing to indicate this time will be different, nor is there any specific chart or data point you can focus on to determine the end is here.

      Ironic that the last two times we reduced the deficit significantly was with Democrats. I guess certain slogans stick such as “conservative fiscal policy” synonymous with Republicans. Just as that was shattered during the largest giveaway to the rich under Bush’s term, we will have a repeat under Trump. Need to see real damage from higher interest rates or we keep piling the deficit to da moon! Low rates give zero incentive to change.

      • Under the course of the Obama presidency, outstanding federal debt has doubled to around $20 trillion. Fully understanding he was dealt a bad hand, his deepest deficit was close to around $1.4 trillion whereas now its approaching $450 billion, still higher then Bush’s’ worst year which was around $400 billion. Obama has reduced his record deficits; but he has not reduced deficits compared to Bush. The most recent surplus was under Clinton.

      • purplember says:

        Gary, are you serious? why don’t you bring up $9,000,000,000,000.00 of debt obama ran up. liberals are biggest of cry babies. abc/nbc/cbs spend first 15 of news ripping trump and he hasn’t even started job.

        • bfquant says:

          Shouldn’t be about politics. Imagine if $20T in spending didn’t happen! Do you think we’d be in better shape right now? I don’t think even Hayek would say so. That said, not a fan of any President we’ve had since I’ve been alive.

        • Are YOU serious? Bush had a BOOMING economy and still managed to rack up huge debt thanks to the Clinton cleanup. Same is going to be true today. I believe Obama was the person that had absolutely NOTHING to do with the crisis? In fact he inherited the biggest debacle in our HISTORY. You want to call him out on it? Are you serious? he has managed to run the economy for 8 years with a steady slow approach to health. The national debt under ANY president would not have seen a reduced amount. Please, get serious!

          A joke to blame the person that stepped in right when the financial institutions were failing.
          Did you expect him to do what was done in the 30’s? That required no intervention. So tell me where would we be today if he followed that script? There isn’t a person on this planet that would have allowed the debacle to “purge” all the bad debt. No one in their right mind would watch the economy crash.

          Love how people place blame and dismiss facts and the situation they were in.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Well…with USA gov 20-21 trillion, in debt…may also be a concern…just a thought.

    • blackjak100 says:

      I didn’t even read the article because northy has been biased to bearish side for awhile and been dead wrong. You have to take it with a grain of salt.

  34. Big jobs numbers with larger than expected wage growth and the dollar spikes higher. The reverse should hold if much weaker. Can’t see any definitive dollar trend from recent action. Anyone decipher the current count on the dollar? Does it look constructive or not? Stock prices retraced at the minimum point that I can determine. I believe SPX can go to 2170 or so without violating uptrend. Looking for dollars move to be in opposite direction of stocks tomorrow.

  35. not many comments today anyone bearish?

  36. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $NATGAS at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  37. bfquant says:

    TC. Could minute 3 possibly coincide with a minute B wave on the Nasdaq?

    • I like your count…

      If we say ‘a’ from 2,214 to yesterday’s 2,188 was 26 points. If the current rise today up to 2,198 represents ‘b’, then ‘c’ would be:

      2,182 (c=.618*a)
      2,172 (c=a)
      2,156 (c=1.618*a)

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