Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open on OPEC deal, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 216K v 147K, at 8:30 personal income (0.6% v 0.3%)/spending (0.3% v 0.5%) were reported higher and the PCE was reported higher (0.1% v 0.1%). The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2205 close, rallied up to a new high at 2214 in the opening minutes, and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 57.6 v 50.6, then at 10am pending home sales were reported higher: 0.1% v 1.5%. By 10:30 the SPX had pulled back to unchanged at 2205. Then after rally to SPX 2211 by 11:30, the market headed lower again. At 2pm the FED released its beige book: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201611.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2199, and ended the day there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds dropped 21 ticks, Crude rallied $3.90, Gold slid $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then construction spending, auto sales and ISM manufacturing at 10am.

With OPEC agreeing on a cut in production energy stocks rallied, carrying the SPX/DOW with them into the open. Soon after the open the SPX/DOW made new highs, the SPX by one point, while the NDX/NAZ did not and started to pullback. For most of the morning the SPX/DOW tried to rally, while the NDX/NAZ was declining. Then in the afternoon they all declined together. At today’s lows the NDX had dropped below the low of Monday a week ago. The NDX/NAZ look like they are in a wave 2 pullback. Waiting on the SPX/DOW to follow. Short term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Short term momentum put in another negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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151 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. kvilia says:

    If gold holds on here – NUGT target – 8.4. If it breaks it, next target – 11.87.

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  2. Going long at end of the day on the S&P. If it trades below today’s low at any point tomorrow I am out.

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  3. mcgcapital says:

    December generally has a decent sized drawdown prior to the low liquidity Xmas and New Year rally, especially if November has been strong. There’s nothing to say this time is different. 2140 SPX, 18700 Dow, 6500 FTSE and 10200 Dax all look possible, before finishing the year at current levels or 1-2% higher.

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  4. Lee X says:

    Well guys and gals I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a healthy and happy 2017 !
    I know what ya’ll are thinking that yeah sure you’ll post again in 5 minutes haha but nope I assure you that’s it from me this year.

    Trade for yourself and remember your Mother is the only one that loves/loved you , everyone else just tolerates you . =)

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    • tony caldaro says:

      merry Christmas senor CL

      Liked by 1 person

    • kvilia says:

      Cheers, Lee – ho-ho.

      Liked by 1 person

    • CB says:

      Hey Lee, it was good talking to you the other day and I hope you will feel better soon. Just think about all the fun we used to have here over the years- it will definitely make you smile, I guarantee it 🙂
      Here’s a nice quote for you, Lee: “No man succeeds without a good woman behind him. Wife or mother, if it is both, he is twice blessed indeed.” – G. Winn.

      You are so blessed, Lee. Just think about it as often as you can.

      Happy Holidays & enjoy all your blessings, Lee!

      Liked by 1 person

    • wanderer says:

      Happy Independence Day, too!

      Liked by 1 person

      • CB says:

        LOL… Ya think?

        Lee, geez, do you even realize that we’re gonna be bored to death without your zingers?….that would be terrible… I’m getting very concerned about you 🙂
        Need some good motivational lyrics or quotes? “Independence Day” quotes, Lee? 😉 We aim to please. Whatever it takes… We take risks here 😉
        Have a great evening everyone.

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  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Curious, does anyone think this is a w4?
    Symmetry with the 2147/2125 wave.
    Carry on. GL All

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  6. vivelaamo says:

    Just how Russell lead the way up its now needing the way down. I’ve already gone long but I can see us going as low as 1280 which would be the best xmas present I could want.

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  7. llerias7 says:

    Tony, a low in 2180´s is satisfactory for a minute ii retrace? I smell a rally tomorrow with the Jobs report…(start of minute iii (?))

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  8. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    sorry about all the posts

    but i havent posted anything this week till today …..

    can i save them up and use them all at once ? 🙂

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  9. ariez5 says:

    Anyone have a theory why the dollar has been weak all day with yields spiking to 2.49? Is the dollar foretelling a drop in yields (maybe not-so-hot jobs report), or can the dollar and yields be decoupling?

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