Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback, DOW -54

Overnight the Asian market gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below Friday’s SPX 2213 record close. After a bump up to SPX 2211 by 10:30, the SPX pulled back to 2203 by 11am. Another bounce took the SPX to 2210 by 12:30, and then the SPX hit 2200 just before a 2202 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Bonds rose 16 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. 2.9%) at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9am and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced within two points of the all time high, then moved lower again. While today’s pullback was only 13 points from the uptrend high, the market did something today it had not done since the uptrend began. It made a lower daily low than the day before: SPX 2200 v SPX 2208. With an extremely short term overbought on Friday, and a record close right at the 2212 pivot range, it might be time for the wave 2 pullback. Defensive utilities and telecom displayed strength today while the leaders pulled back. And, the R2K fifteen day win streak was broken. The uptrend started at 2085 pivot why not end the first wave up at the 2212 pivot? Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Short term momentum dropped hit oversold for the first time in 3 weeks. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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69 Responses to Monday update

  1. NINJA SHADE says:

    Bud guy back again in like a week… now Tony’s blog will get clogged again 😦

  2. Bud Fox says:

    Now, just went short via SPXS..$11.40 couple of hundred shares.

  3. Bud Fox says:

    Ref SPXL getting a topping signal, right now.
    Do not know the “degree” of the pattern. But,
    looks short term negative. I am in cash at 2190…

  4. purplember says:

    phil any thoughts on CL ? i went short days ago and got out today but there’s no clear cut trend imo. other than buy when oversold and short when overbought.

  5. Fundamental data full steam ahead. This is a year long acceleration and not due to the vote. It will once again put pressure on the dollar. When it breaks out again we will see a decent correction. Till that time slow and steady on a seasonal uptrend. I am curious to see if 2240 gets taken out and if so when. Even though many are expecting a sharp rally from here till Year End I doubt it very much. We should be topping soon, most probably by the 9th of December. No real damage after but as previous pattern suggests a sideways move till end of January. Any decent drop should be bought up over next 2 months.

    My favored pattern still suggests wave 4 will start after January and most likely fast trending down by March.

    • Just a reminder. In late December thru January of this year not many saw the fundamental picture as bright. Not many saw a wave 3 as opposed to the final wave 5. Now many see a very long wave 3 pattern developing while I see an end very soon. Funny how I am always on the wrong side of the track. Only common consensus is to buy dips till late January.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Gary you’re all over through place? Are you saying correction after January in December 9th?

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Surely to soon to go long here when the short term trend line has clearly broke in the SPX. Santa rally or not I’ll think I will wait for a proper retrace.

  7. cosmos77 says:

    CL drops to 45 on OPEC news and UWTI gaps down to 17.30 on the hourly chart. This perfectly fills the gap up on 11/14 (17.30 – 18.33) and leaves two other overhead gaps (19.75 – 18.30) and (21.55 – 20.90).
    Report on
    OPEC deal in jeopardy over non-attendance of key exporters: CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick talks to UAE Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazroui
    The biggest hurdle for OPEC to clear and reach an agreement to cut oil production could be that not all the oil-producing cartel’s members are set to attend its key meeting, Suhail Al Mazroui, United Arab Emirates oil minister, told CNBC on Tuesday.
    OPEC will meet in Vienna, Austria on Wednesday in an attempt to implement a deal outlined in September which proposed cutting oil production by around 1 million barrels per day.
    “I could say the biggest barrier is that some (countries) are not participating, OPEC is a consolidated organization, it needs to be unanimous. Expectation is that if we agree on something it needs to be sustainable and that benefits everyone,” said Al Mazroui.
    Speculation as to whether OPEC will be able to agree on a deal to reduce global oversupply of oil has intensified in the run-up to the meeting with Iran and Iraq resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to curtail oil production, according to a Reuters report.
    Non-OPEC producer Russia confirmed on Tuesday that it would not be attending the meeting in Vienna however it added that a meeting at a later date would be possible.

  8. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  9. captbara says:

    Yesterday’s ST supports worked beautifully with a completed 5 waver. Now to see if we get a deeper correction or continue to hold the near term MA’s. Otherwise, 2185 target.

  10. Lee X says:

    I think most of us would/could agree you have to pick your spots in trading CL/Oil
    In trading futures you’re taught by the MARKET not to chase, listen to the market because it does not give an F .

    Ok I’m going to put some pants on and head outside as that yellow thing in the sky is out today

  11. Nine more points on the NAZ and a big fat -div will pop upon the daily.Out of here for the day.Casino time.

  12. DXY went to 101.60 on GDP…now down to 101.17.Interesting to see where it winds up today.

  13. torehund says:

    Observing a flat abc from nov-14 top on Tbt, could it already be kaboom time. It just doesnt give away much 🙂

  14. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Short trade predicted in my last comment from the “Weekend Update” here came sooner and further than expected, namely at the opening of futures on Sunday (white circle at left on chart below). Second chance today at market opening (white circle at right on chart).
    Rut hourly futures –

    • locanbbs says:

      BUT profits should be taken fast, because this (Tuesday) is the last cyclic bottom for a while, so the rebound (start for “iii of 3”) could be strong!

    • locanbbs says:

      Rebound also quicker and stronger than expected. Levelled my position for a small gain and am now waiting for a clear Buy signal! Looks like a double bottom.

    • locanbbs says:

      Now buy on breakout in 30-minute futes. Looks like it’s impulsing higher:
      Rut 30-min futes –

  15. H D says:

    3.2% GDP. USA! Economy is catching up to the charts.

    • tommyboys says:

      Hope they all vanish. Hasn’t been “news” in decades just propaganda pushing the owner’s agenda(s)…Death Cross is wonderful news.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        don’t worry Besos will buy it because he read it when he was young and wants another losing business on his books. Then he can turn it into the Huffington Post

      • fionamargaret says:

        Love the NYT, The Times and the FT……good stuff in there, don’t be so silly.
        Yesterday great story about a rescue donkey and his goat friend….about 25 stars, and that was just from me….
        Well done this morning guys on your market outlook….. xx

      • fionamargaret says:

        “propaganda”, “agenda”…..why so cynical….
        At the weekend Tony was wondering why his blog was reading like The Midas Letter and you guys might as well be reporters for Cuban Crosshairs or similar. Life is not out to get you…at least not all of the time.

  16. Spidey sense says Minor 2 not here yet…

  17. Spidey sense says Minor 2 not here yet.

  18. stormchaser80llc says:

    The negative divergences on SPX hourly chart last week have come to fruition with a pullback in the markets today. My proprietary Technicals model had a pull back as well, at a higher rate than the market (bearish). However a new low in $VIX is still needed to formulate positive divergences across the board. Breadth and % stocks above their major moving averages is still supportive of a run higher. At the lows of the day, positive divergences were noted on the SPX hourly chart, which could mean the low is in, though I would like to see a bit more evidence than I currently have. Finally my trading signals went from Bullish to Neutral today. Though it is quite interesting that my Ensemble of 999 members that I’m currently testing is 100% bullish still.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  19. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  20. Bud Fox says:

    Short Term…My SP500 signals are Bearish,turning down, today.
    FYI….nothing further to add.

  21. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

  22. Trader T says:

    Hi Tony,
    Love you blog, but rarely post!
    I have a question for anyone who would be kind enough to reply:
    With such a high RSI on both the hourly and the daily on SPX from last Friday, isn’t it almost a given that the next all-time high (likely later this week) will produce a lower RSI, and therefore an automatic negative divergence…which will likely result in lower prices shortly thereafter?
    Pardon my question if it seems naïve…just trying to learn.
    Thanks in advance.

  23. SP500 top S/B 2240 but can go as high as 2300. 5 mini-wave pattern developed from start of 2016. 5th wave terminal move around January 14-20th just based on symmetry for full year.

  24. llerias7 says:

    Tony, how many days can this minute wave make his way? Best guess 2 days more…so Dec 1st might begin with a rally (?)…

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