Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback, DOW -54

Overnight the Asian market gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below Friday’s SPX 2213 record close. After a bump up to SPX 2211 by 10:30, the SPX pulled back to 2203 by 11am. Another bounce took the SPX to 2210 by 12:30, and then the SPX hit 2200 just before a 2202 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Bonds rose 16 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. 2.9%) at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9am and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced within two points of the all time high, then moved lower again. While today’s pullback was only 13 points from the uptrend high, the market did something today it had not done since the uptrend began. It made a lower daily low than the day before: SPX 2200 v SPX 2208. With an extremely short term overbought on Friday, and a record close right at the 2212 pivot range, it might be time for the wave 2 pullback. Defensive utilities and telecom displayed strength today while the leaders pulled back. And, the R2K fifteen day win streak was broken. The uptrend started at 2085 pivot why not end the first wave up at the 2212 pivot? Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Short term momentum dropped hit oversold for the first time in 3 weeks. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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69 Responses to Monday update

  1. NINJA SHADE says:

    Bud guy back again in like a week… now Tony’s blog will get clogged again 😦


  2. Bud Fox says:

    Now, just went short via SPXS..$11.40 couple of hundred shares.


  3. Bud Fox says:

    Ref SPXL getting a topping signal, right now.
    Do not know the “degree” of the pattern. But,
    looks short term negative. I am in cash at 2190…


  4. purplember says:

    phil any thoughts on CL ? i went short days ago and got out today but there’s no clear cut trend imo. other than buy when oversold and short when overbought.


  5. Fundamental data full steam ahead. This is a year long acceleration and not due to the vote. It will once again put pressure on the dollar. When it breaks out again we will see a decent correction. Till that time slow and steady on a seasonal uptrend. I am curious to see if 2240 gets taken out and if so when. Even though many are expecting a sharp rally from here till Year End I doubt it very much. We should be topping soon, most probably by the 9th of December. No real damage after but as previous pattern suggests a sideways move till end of January. Any decent drop should be bought up over next 2 months.

    My favored pattern still suggests wave 4 will start after January and most likely fast trending down by March.


    • Just a reminder. In late December thru January of this year not many saw the fundamental picture as bright. Not many saw a wave 3 as opposed to the final wave 5. Now many see a very long wave 3 pattern developing while I see an end very soon. Funny how I am always on the wrong side of the track. Only common consensus is to buy dips till late January.


    • vivelaamo says:

      Gary you’re all over through place? Are you saying correction after January in December 9th?


  6. vivelaamo says:

    Surely to soon to go long here when the short term trend line has clearly broke in the SPX. Santa rally or not I’ll think I will wait for a proper retrace.


  7. cosmos77 says:

    CL drops to 45 on OPEC news and UWTI gaps down to 17.30 on the hourly chart. This perfectly fills the gap up on 11/14 (17.30 – 18.33) and leaves two other overhead gaps (19.75 – 18.30) and (21.55 – 20.90).
    Report on
    OPEC deal in jeopardy over non-attendance of key exporters: CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick talks to UAE Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazroui
    The biggest hurdle for OPEC to clear and reach an agreement to cut oil production could be that not all the oil-producing cartel’s members are set to attend its key meeting, Suhail Al Mazroui, United Arab Emirates oil minister, told CNBC on Tuesday.
    OPEC will meet in Vienna, Austria on Wednesday in an attempt to implement a deal outlined in September which proposed cutting oil production by around 1 million barrels per day.
    “I could say the biggest barrier is that some (countries) are not participating, OPEC is a consolidated organization, it needs to be unanimous. Expectation is that if we agree on something it needs to be sustainable and that benefits everyone,” said Al Mazroui.
    Speculation as to whether OPEC will be able to agree on a deal to reduce global oversupply of oil has intensified in the run-up to the meeting with Iran and Iraq resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to curtail oil production, according to a Reuters report.
    Non-OPEC producer Russia confirmed on Tuesday that it would not be attending the meeting in Vienna however it added that a meeting at a later date would be possible.


  8. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ


  9. captbara says:

    Yesterday’s ST supports worked beautifully with a completed 5 waver. Now to see if we get a deeper correction or continue to hold the near term MA’s. Otherwise, 2185 target.


  10. Lee X says:

    I think most of us would/could agree you have to pick your spots in trading CL/Oil
    In trading futures you’re taught by the MARKET not to chase, listen to the market because it does not give an F .

    Ok I’m going to put some pants on and head outside as that yellow thing in the sky is out today


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