weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2182. After a gap up opening Monday the market rallied to SPX 2205 by Tuesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 2195 on Wednesday the market closed out the week at a new closing high of SPX 2213. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.40%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit both increased. On the uptick: existing home sales, durable goods, the FHFA, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, monthly payrolls, the PCE and the FED’s beige book. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

Nine months into this new bull market, and 2+ weeks after the presidential election some interesting and noteworthy events have occurred. As with all new bull markets there has been a change in leadership. Sectors that outperformed during the 2009-2015 bull market, i.e. health care, consumer discretionary and consumer staples, are underperforming the financials, materials and energy sectors. The old leaders were XLP, XLV and XLY, and the new leaders are XLB, XLE and XLF.

We are also witnessing what often occurs in the beginning of bull markets and in third wave thrusts: small capitalization leadership. Since the February low the Semiconductors and Russell 2000 have significantly outperformed all the major indices except the Transports. The R2K has been rising for 15 days in a row, and hit an overbought condition that has not occurred since the 1990’s. One has to go back to 1999 to find the last time the R2K had a daily RSI of 96+. In fact, during the 1990’s the R2K hit an overbought reading of 96+ six times and none since, until this week.

Naturally bull markets do not unfold without the proverbial wall of worry. And this market has already had its share of crisis events. The commodity melt down in January/February which ended the bear market, the Br-exit vote in June, and the Trump vote in November. Then there is the ongoing concerns of a high Debt/GDP ratio, the rising USD, an historically high PE multiple, a new administration just ahead, and now rising long term rates. Bull markets do not unfold without the proverbial wall of worry.

spxweekly

Our long term count remains unchanged. A Super cycle low in March 2009, led to a Primary I bull market until May 2015. Then after a short Primary II bear market into February 2016, a Primary III bull market was underway. Thus far we have counted only three impulse uptrends from that SPX 1810 low. Intermediate waves i and ii in April and June, then Minor waves 1 and 2 in August and November. Minor wave 3 is currently underway and has already made new all time highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The characteristics of this new bull market have been quite simple thus far. Both impulse uptrends have lasted two months, and both corrections that followed have lasted 2 – 3 months. This suggests this new uptrend should at least last from November to January. Also the first uptrend was about 300 SPX points, and the second of a lesser degree was about 200 points. This relationship suggests the current uptrend should rise about 300 SPX points, to around the SPX 2380’s. Three weeks into the uptrend and the market has already reached SPX 2213.

spxdaily

The uptrend, thus far, still appears to be in its first of five waves up. The first wave up of the previous two impulse uptrends were 137 points and 117 points. This first wave has already risen 129 points, which fits right in the middle. At SPX 2222, oddly enough, it will be longer than the previous two first waves. At Friday’s close the daily RSI is now the most overbought it has been since the bull market began in February, and the most overbought it has been since November 2014. Seems this market is due for that second wave pullback sooner than later. Medium term support is now at the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot.

SHORT TERM

The advance from the SPX 2084 downtrend low to Friday’s SPX 2213 uptrend high has been a bit difficult to count. Just when the market looks like it’s ready for a significant pullback, the dips are bought and the rally extends. We initially started counting the waves from the absolute low at SPX 2084, shifted to the secondary low at 2085, and now are back to the absolute low again. Thus far we can count 27 small waves from that low, obviously making it difficult to track.

spxhourly

The only significant pullback that has occurred since the SPX 2084 low, occurred within one hour’s time on November 10th when the SPX dropped from 2182-2151. There were two other pullbacks of 20+ points, one before and one after the 10th. Other than that the pullbacks have been generally quite small. Rather than put some labels on all these waves we will just wait until the market provides a meaningful pullback to signal the second of five waves. Currently this would require a drop into the 2177 pivot range again, from current or higher levels. Other than that the uptrend continues, with the SPX 2380’s as the upside target. Short term support is at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. The most overbought since the uptrend began. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher and gained 1.6%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.7%.

The DJ World index rose 1.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude is trying to uptrend but lost 0.7%.

Gold continues to downtrend and lost 2.5%.

The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 0.3%

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Q3 GDP (est. +2.9%), Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: the ADP, personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, and auto sales. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 172K) and the unemployment rate.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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123 Responses to weekend update

  1. captbara says:

    I guess when Dax hits 10400 the next leg of the rally can begin. Waiting on Dec 4.

  2. LBHK says:

    Tony, could’ve help noticing the different counts between GDX and $GOLD. I know they are done by different members of your group but is this paradox just normal or do you usually try to reconcile contradictory counts like this? TIA

    • tony caldaro says:

      Think both counts are possible, two different opinions, in the end one will be correct.
      My work suggests Gold will be in a bear market trading range for at least a decade.

  3. captbara says:

    2200 then 2198 as ST support

  4. fotis2 says:

    Caries on like this 1st daily CCI close bellow +100 after 13 days Yippee for the Bears!!

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Watching the russel and the short term trendline finally broken. Going to wait for a lower higher before shorting or 1300 area to go long.

  6. bfquant says:

    TC – Regarding the long term thesis you outlined for several asian emerging markets, is that still intact? Thank you.

  7. The yen weakness turned around–as did oil and gold when ALL OF A SUDDEN… “Futures rose as much as 1.5 percent, reversing an earlier decline. Iraq’s Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi is optimistic a deal will be reached, he said Monday in Vienna.”
    As we(JMM and myself)said last week…they”ve learned from the Fed,how to influence markets.

  8. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    • Lee X says:

      Hey C B

      I read that article about Box Options Exchange building a new trading floor in Chicago for those egg head options traders.🙂

      “Box’s floor will be smaller than legacy operations, with 3,400 square feet leased and under construction in the Chicago Board of Trade Building. There’s room for up to 35 traders and brokers, though there may be as few as five at the start, Boyle says.

      As Thomas Wolfe wrote “You Can’t Go Home Again ”

      Thanks for the article !

      • CB says:

        Hey Lee,
        Glad you liked it! And you’ve really nailed it with your quote, on so many levels, Lee 🙂 Fortunately, at the same, we never really leave home, it seems; we sort of carry it around with us : )
        Oh those eggheads, right?.. lol.. Seriously, it’s very interesting that they’ve decided to go boldly where so many have already gone before…. so what should we call it: the “reverse-disruption”..?😉 Clearly, the more traditional way of doing business must be seen as giving them the edge they really want… the kind of market transparency & access that is truly superior and that you yourself know so much about, Lee.

        And since that historic trading floor is so close to your heart and since you’re in a unique position to track their progress, Lee, let’s hope that you can tell us first-hand how the experiment goes. It should be very interesting!

  9. Anyone know why the yen is feeling its oats tonight?US recount?Uncertainty on that might be part of it.Down to 111.36.Quite a night.Bouncing back to 111.60.

  10. The ability to redraw chart patterns into an infinite number of possible wave structures begs the question how useful is it? The thought by many was we were already in wave 5 and anyone with an extreme pessimistic view of the world easily latched onto that . Early 2016 was supposed to be the watershed event. I have gone my way without the use or understanding of the rules for wave structure. I do however see patterns in waves and come to the generalized notion.

    I bring this up because I have a pretty defined notion of how this plays out and in a relatively tight time structure. I would like for someone to explain to me if it is impossible or possible for my long view to exist in this Elliot wave world. Specifically is it possible we finish this wave off in January or February? Does it violate all possible wave structures? Can we see a wave 4 develop in 2017? Can it last for most of 2017? if so, can my assumption for a final wave last approximately 18 months or so? I am fascinated with the Fibonacci rules of nature. I do not know the strict rules that can’t be violated. I have found that my intuitive nature defines support and resistance zones that seem to match some of the Elliot wave expectations.

    • Simon & Tara says:

      Why don’t you use your world class expertise and extraordinary “intuitive nature” to write your own blog? Are you Warren Buffet, by any chance?

    • TMF says:

      TA is an art not a science. IMO

    • lcd00 says:

      Gary, you write in a manner that sounds very much like an A.I. machine; quite interesting.

      • No one answered my question. Sorry if I come off as person that has all the answers but that’s just who I am. I do have 6 years of bragging rights so it wouldn’t shock anyone to assume I will stick with what works. What has been very inconsistent for me is short term play. I am a streak player in that regard and wish I can hone in to a more scientific method. if my general outline of next few years is incongruous to the strict rules of Eliot Wave I might reconsider my assumptions.

        As for Buffet I wish I had his temperament and skills.

        • fotis2 says:

          If you got all the answers what you doing here slumming it with us mere mortals?Tip of the week …If you want answers try shorter posts I think hardly anyone reads your views ’cause they too long man you seem to be ….

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          here is an answer to your question and its no joke. all are possible

    • tony caldaro says:

      Will answer your question, now that I know there was one.
      Everything is possible. But we deal with probabilities.

  11. Early trading…dollar/yen correcting from 113 to 112.05 as of now.111.50 big support.

  12. Piergiovanni Mariotti says:

    Just guessing

  13. torehund says:

    Shanghai, it has this fine wavy progressive rising fell to it, early parabolic action ?

  14. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Whatever happens, I’m sure we’ll trade it.🙂
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2016-11-27.html

  15. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is $EURUSD

  16. Looks like this wave count played out with us breaking out over 2206ES – pretty solid repeat of history especially on the daily chart.

  17. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Technicals Model continues to bullish, but we must closely monitor the developing negative divergence forming in the past week. Negative divergences continue for SPX hourly chart, though $VIX needs a new low in order to re-estabilish positive divergences. A new high for McClellan is also bullish for the market. In the longer term, need to keep in mind that there are significant negative divergences on Breadth and %stocks above their major moving averages since summer.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  18. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: “Waiting for a down day.” – Setup for Tony’s “Wave 2 (down)” needs only one good down day (this Monday/Tuesday?) to go into action and break the short term trend lines – see white lines on Spx hourly (futures) chart (black) and black upward diagonal on Ndx daily chart (white). Other indicators are extremely overbought or are giving sell signals already (see circles on all three charts).
    Ndx 1/2 –

    Spx –

  19. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  20. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/trptZw?image

    SPX big picture

    why did spx peak at 2194 in august?

    it was the – 23% target of the traditional long

    the next long in the series has traded and its target is 2241

    the monthly extension long .618 support at 1789
    which was severely tested twice but held
    has its -23% target at 2267

    • phil1247 says:

      Tony

      i just read your weekend update
      and you have resistance at 2270 pivot

      could that pivot actually be 2267?
      ..( the monthly extension long target ?) 🙂

    • wanderer says:

      What is a “traditional long”?

      • phil1247 says:

        a retracement from low to high
        that supports above the .618 level
        and reaches the -23% target ….
        ie feb to june rally retraced to 1990 and hit 2194 target.
        ..since we did not go thru target at 2194 there is no extension long in this series

        we are now in the next traditional long….ie
        1990 to 2194 retraced between .50 and .618
        rally is now on the way to – 23% target of 2241

      • fionamargaret says:

        http://eminiaddict.com/
        This is the guide to understand the lingo….

        • wanderer says:

          Thanks, Fiona. I don’t see a guide there. There is just some usual, “traditional” marketing stuff, asking me to pay $29.99 a month for something. Phil, are you associated with these guys?

          • fionamargaret says:

            Phil and Sparrow use(d) his work ideas….you are mathematically inclined W, why not take the free trial, and see….then you can give us tips…

            • wanderer says:

              Thanks, Fiona. Seems like these days, everyone is an trading educator, and not many are actual traders.

              • kvilia says:

                Highly recommend – you can actually trade futures on 15 mins charts – dh is excellent trading and educating resource.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Most of the real heavy hitters here are Tony’s students – think about taking his course.

              • fotis2 says:

                Judging from Phil’s postings it’s a high hit rate day trading system obviously success will lie in one’s ability to stick to it.The best system is the one a trader can stick to imo.

          • 123 abc says:

            I’m intrigued too. Phil posts his trades very often and appears quite successful —but I’m unsure of what is going on! Phil, if possible let us know your tricks! Looking at Phil’s trades, I think the following is what he does:

  21. “If you want to hunt for the largest seller of Bonds in the world, I’d start by looking at Bridgewater”

    “…whereas the previous period was characterized by 1) increasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) relatively innocuous fiscal policies, and 3) sluggish domestic growth, low inflation, and falling bond yields, the new period is more likely to be characterized by 1) decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness, 2) aggressively stimulative fiscal policies, and 3) increased US growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields. Of course, there will be other big shifts as well, such as pertaining to business profitability, environmental protection, foreign policies/alliances, etc. Once again, we won’t go into the whole litany of them, as they’re well known. However, the main point we’re trying to convey is that there is a good chance that we are at one of those major reversals that last a decade (like the 1970-71 shift from the 1960s period of non-inflationary growth to the 1970s decade of stagflation, or the 1980s shift to disinflationary strong growth). To be clear, we are not saying that the future will be like any of these mentioned prior periods; we are just saying that there’s a good chance that the economy/market will shift from what we have gotten used to and what we will experience over the next many years will be very different from that.

    Ray Dalio/Bridgewater

    • tony caldaro says:

      Agree with Ray. This is a secular shift. But not the ones he mentions.
      From 1948-1952 the Marshal Plan helped Europe rebuild.
      When it was completed Europe’s economies were 35% larger than the beginning at the war. This ushered in the Growth secular cycle, 1949-1966, or as some call it the First Turning.
      Br-exit and Trumponomics will prove to be quite similar.
      “You build it, and they will come.”

      • wmorel says:

        Tony
        I doubt he will build anything.
        He barely built a building. Already rates are climbing, and it was only a few short months ago that everyone was deathly afraid of the calamity that was going to occur if rates backed up even a bit. Recall the market cried when it looked like rates were going up a .25% for gosh sakes but already the bond market debacle has increased the cost of mortgage rates and with more on its way, housing will stall, prices drop and stock markets will follow as wealth again deteriorates. Further The usd will get trashed If the Usa busts trade agreements, who will trust you again? China will sell into the strength and refuse to buy more USA debt. How will anything get built if you are so over extended you can’t sell your debt?
        Back to trump, I don’t seem to understand how the American populace who voted him on a series of now completely false promises, can support or believe anything he says or suggests he will do.

        He is a condo salesman at best!!!

        • That was my position all along. I guess people do get taken in by car salesmanship. How his “exposed” rhetoric can be ignored is as much a mystery as to why he got such a following in the first place. if a hate filled paranoid voter latched onto his solutions how could they be feeling good about his complete turnaround. Crooked Hillary no longer? Cleaning the swamp with well established old white men in congress? Mass deportation gone? This guy is NOW sounding like a true Republican candidate. No radical changes except the military with disdain for Muslims is the ears and eyes for the President. Lets see him keep his promise for the middle class. No degradation of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. the republican party will not stand for that and I expect an announcement for immediate change once he takes the oath. DUPED? We shall see. The tax cuts will be extremely one sided as Bush’s was. Huge windfall for corporations and wealthy. trickle down? Lets see if this car salesman is good at his job. Can he sell this crap to the American Public? I mentioned that a narcissist like Trump would be more interested in a legacy and is obsessed with getting instant approval. Just Tweet him and keep in touch.

        • TMF says:

          Really ? What have other “politicans” done ? Don’t dems
          Realize that the kum by ya philosophy has destroyed the middle class. America first.

      • As I understand the 4T’s, each has its own personality and each is subdivided into four sub cycles with the last being regeneracy. While just a observer of Saeculum theory, its obvious we are in the latter stages of the fourth turning as the supply of order is exceptionally low (look at campuses, calls for dead cops and dead cops) and the demand for order is high as evidenced by Trump’s popularity and calls for stricter immigration controls and tougher law enforcement. And with his election, we likely concluded the resolution or regeneracy sub cycle of the 4th turning, paving the way for the first turning. I say this because it coincides with other historical cycles involving civil unrest and race relationships. Such cycles peaked in 1870, 1920, 1970………and now, slightly ahead of the fifty year mark, 2016/2017. It’s all interwoven and rather amazing. As to how Trump’s preferred policies will reshape a new economic and financial model, I think its going to take awhile to see how it takes shape.

    • Can you believe Ron Paul getting so low ? It is outrageous. Landin himself at those adverts for little intellectual level followers.
      Fiona, Fiona…..

      • fionamargaret says:

        Actually Francesca I was quite surprised myself…some people here seem to think he is the bees’ knees, so when I received this message from him in my mailbox (and no Raymond Jame) I thought “good, that will be a good filler”. I did not read before posting, and even then did get to the end, so if there is a surprising finish I should know about…..

  22. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Potential Terminal Move (11/25/16)
    We explore the possibility that the post-election thrust completes the the upswing from the February low. (This is one of several possibilities, but an interesting one.)
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/mtu-weekend-ed-potential-terminal-move.html

  23. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et OEW team for the blockbuster weekend update.




  24. Ajney says:

    Thanks Tony. In GLD, our long projected target was hit this week. We are now “hopeful” of a bit of a bounce this week. If the current support of around 112 in GLD breaks, then we may see a waterfall in realtime. This week is important in various markets with energy dates on Nov. 28 and Dec. 2.

  25. 340 DOW points higher should do it. 2250 on SPX ? Momentum surge I spoke of was before election was decided. Projecting market behavior based on emotional acceptance is a prescription for failure. You would be better off staying skeptical. Profits and financial projections determine future trend. Most often we have a steep correction when they diverge greatly. I suspect peak earnings will be seen in next 2 quarters. Rising costs, as I suggested well over a year ago, would be the cause of this next correction. In fact I projected the next wave down would be as a result of strong consumer health but weakening profits due to rising costs. this projection was many years ago, well before anyone could see the situation making it possible today. Wave 4 should fall into that category since a wave 5 can ONLY occur if the latter drop sets up for a huge potential surge in earnings.

    We are entering the euphoric topping of wave 3. The next decent drop will be gobbled up and that is a tradable situation. Long term move beyond a topping in January or early February is highly unlikely. I suspect a slow rolling over occurs and accelerated move down will occur in March/April time frame.

    I always use macro view to set up possible short term bets. My style of betting requires me to understand where we are headed. I suppose being a pessimist by nature it’s a natural fit. Need that road map in context to short term bets. Helps me keep emotional play at a minimum.

    I do like the varied analysis and will continue to watch and learn. For now however I do not see a change in my forecast.

  26. Mr C,is there a -div on the weekly SPX,in your opinion.I know there’s one setting up for monthly…but as I wrote before,I doubted whether the powers that be,would let that happen–meaning:push the index up in the next 3 days to obliterate that potential -div by Wednesday.If they don’t–it’s a first mistake by the CBs in a while.Thank you.in advance.
    Btw…GDX weekly is sitting there,pretty as a picture with a +div,,daily looks good as well.The options market is pure bear.Lets bounce boys.

  27. canadianloonie says:

    Tony you have AMD in your chart book do u have an Elliot wave count for Intel or just an educated outlook guess where it is in a long term count. Is it in a new secular uptrend? Thanks Tony ..
    Long time follower little time commentor


  28. My chart of hope.Past instances have been profitable.
    Is there a -div on the SPX weekly,or am I reading it incorrectly?
    Turkey and all other countries should not be allowed to release citizens(for whatever reasons)into another country.That is an invasion–not refugeeism.The people of those countries have to fight to fix their own nations.Leaving is the easy way.Changing what is bad is tough.In that case,in non-democratic nations,an overthrow of the government by the people is the only solution.I’m not unsympathetic,but Europe or the US cannot solve the basic problem of dictatorship.BLM and Moveon.org thinks WE have a 1% problem in our country?Look at Turkey,Saudi Arabia and the like.THAT is a real example of money only being enjoyed by people at the top.
    Thanks Mr C,for great guidance.

    • By the way,the chart is the options market being completely bearish on gold at those designated points.

    • The JEWS were turned away during such conflict in 30’s and 40’s. Do unto others…. Empathy wanes when individuals become complacent thru good times. it also occurs when we fall in hard times and look for a scape goat. We lynched a dozen blacks in New York City during the riots over conscription during the Civil War. We place slanted eyed Americans in internment camps while the German Italian Americans were a tiny fraction placed there. The Irish and Italians were treated as third class citizens when we graciously allowed them to immigrate. Most of our American ancestors were a result of opening the flood gates of immigrants when it was needed to expand our nation. Hate and fear is all nations undoing. Just remember, you never know who the NEXT group will be blamed for our hardship. In UK today, the Polish citizens that were there for over a decade are NOW being harassed and asked to leave. I know what I say falls on deaf ears and only when you get attacked will you begin to understand. Divide and conquer until the majority becomes the victim. Guess we are not there yet. 90 percent of all Jews lived in Spain at one point. Totally wiped out during the Program’s. Jews, Moors, and Christians lived together in the Golden Age of Spain before the cleansing. Determine for yourself if its best to be isolationists or inclusive.

      • Its not for me to say…the countries themselves have to decide if they can coexist with foreign cultures and religions.But isn’t that the reason countries were developed in the first place?Or neighborhoods or states?To have like minded individuals inhabit certain areas of land.Why would you want to live with people you don’t agree with?
        It’s been that way for centuries.The only reason its being attempted now is political and financial gain by a few people trying to benefit from such an experiment.The experiment itself could never succeed on a long-term basis.People are too individualistic.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Great post. it works both ways. You should maintain your identity but respect the cultures and practises of the country you live in. Here in the U.K. it clear which people refuse to do that which in turn causes segregation and hatred towards all races. We get tarred with the same brush.

          It’s a tricky subject and one totally off the topic of charts so I’ll end with my thoughts that I think we will gap down on open today and consolidate up to the referendum. That night there could be some big moves which end with a nice santa rally to all time highs. I’m basing this on seasonality and general market behaviour around big political events. All the best.

          • Seasonals have not mattered in gold this year at all.If I remember correctly,seasonals for stocks (post election)are not that positive–the first year of a new administration–after a 2 term presidency.Of course those stats were all from different,less Central Bank empowered times.Watch the yield curve for clues on recession chances.

      • Many more Jews were driven from Spain than were wiped out.

        • Rewriting history?

          From WIKIPEDIA

          Spanish Jews once constituted one of the largest and most prosperous Jewish communities in the world. This period ended definitively with the anti-Jewish riots of 1392 and Alhambra decree of 1492, as a result of which the majority of Jews in Spain (between 200,000 and 250,000) converted to Catholicism and those remaining (between 40,000 and 100,000) were forced into exile.

  29. Thank you very much for sharing your insights and thoughtful commentary. The world is awash in geo political and geo financial risks but these have not stopped US markets surging higher on the back of the Trump phenomenon and the tailwinds of favorable seasonality. While there could be a brief pullback before the new year, I think the odds favor a march higher through the end of the year. With respect to counts, I’m inclined to believe the brief pullback from from 2182 to 2152 (30%) ushered in a sub minute wave 3 which is moving relentlessly higher. I say this because the presumed wave 3 is respecting the key Fib levels of wave 1 when added to 2152. 2190, 2202, and likely 2214. Its like a road map higher without a clear altitude. Whether we are in wave 1 or 3 is likely of little short term consequence but holds obvious longer term consequence.
    Do you agree with that last statement? https://www.tradingview.com/x/DsZLvMXB/

    • tony caldaro says:

      the last line? not entirely

      • If you have time, add to that Delphic reply. Thanks.

        • tony caldaro says:

          There is a chance it could have longer term implications.
          But this has been one strong broad based rally with rotation into new leadership.
          The market likes Trump, and will force him to live up to his campaign pledges.

          • I agree and thanks for fleshing things out.

          • Good blog Tony, and good points about Trump.
            Not wanting to get political, but I see the appointment of Wilbur Ross to Secy of Commerce as quite novel, breaking the mold.

            Quick look at past Secy’s of Commerce show a long list of lawyers, interspersed with old-mony-ed folks, or recently retired $SPX 500 people (e.g. the CEO from Kelloggs, Carlos Guitierrez) .

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secretary_of_Commerce

            That history is all warm and fuzzy, but few to none of these folks have any idea how to turn around just one company that is losing money, much less the moribund manufacturing sector in the middle of the U.S.

            Enter Wilbur Ross, the reputed ‘King of Bankruptcies”.
            The next several months will be interesting.

            GLTA

            • tony caldaro says:

              Agree, another game changer!

            • fionamargaret says:

              Love Wilbur…now all we need is T Boone….and transportation and NG transform the future…dare I say, a game changer. So many games, so many changes…we are going to get tired of game changing.

              • Carl Icahn would be quite a game changer too.
                Talk about getting rid of the dead wood.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Tom, you are funny….but on a different note, you certainly started something with your Glenn Gould offering. Now YouTube seems to have all his appearances, and yes, I felt for Bernstein who seemed betwixt and between….how do you deal with genius when the interpretation is quite far off the accepted.
                I am trying to rouse interest by offering newer soloists….sometimes they don’t help themselves.
                How do you raise an interest in music, when classical music is almost completely overlooked. Where do you get the structure? Ah well…..

              • Hi Fiona,

                The problem with classical music (as we know it) was that it was designed around the concept of pushing the limits of human capability. While we still do that in the 21st Century in many activities (e.g. sports) it is not as widespread as it used to be, back in the day.

                Here’s an short video by Emmanuel Ax, on human limits

                And this wasn’t limited to music.
                Contemporary to Beethoven in woodwork were people like the Goddard Townsend.
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goddard_and_Townsend
                Look how they carved ball and claw feet (the undercut) just to show that they could do it.
                Ha Ha on the rest of us mortals.

  30. NEWBIE says:

    Why did the federal reserve only raise rates once in 2015? Why did they say they were gonna raise rates 4 times this year and have not yet raised once? Its no coincidence, we are in trouble.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Listen to at least the first 5 minutes.

    • pooch77 says:

      They were trying for a buoyant stock market to ensure the election of Hillary Clinton I stated several times as far back as last spring they would not raise rates until after election

      • phil1247 says:

        really quite comical………

        people are still pondering ….will the fed raise??

        the 5 yr note yield has doubled.. to almost 1.9%

        who cares if they raise ?

        the bond vigilantes ….( and me ) have already sold bonds long ago

        people were calling for TLT to 160

        when i warned at 143 it was headed to 101
        starting to accumulate 3 to 5 yr notes now

  31. cj32 says:

    Tweets by CBZ,

  32. lobohemes says:

    Tony or anyone: Why use a 5 parameter in the daily RSI rather than the default 14 provided by Stockcharts? Thanks.

  33. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Nothing really to add about the indices, except that weekly macd is hocking up nicely. Rut and Dow are my favorites. Oil is neural until it isnt, and the Euro…is a stinker.
    The next shoe to drop may be Turkey releasing refugees towards Europe. Its a humanitarian crisis so there will be no right and wrong answers.
    The large currency shifts across the world are rapidly impoverishing nations, but lets give this brand new bull a bit time to show us its legs. It still autumn by the feel.

    • fionamargaret says:

      ….somewhat dreich Tore if you ken whit ah mean….land rising from an icy grave deserves more hopeful music…x
      I agree with your ideas on oil..I am almost beside myself with their incompetence….think $10/oil is too high for them…..no more trying to please….neutral.
      I have $SPX at 2485…a little higher.

    • fionamargaret says:

  34. cyanus66 says:

    Thank you heaps, Tony.
    We live in fast, exciting times. This bull might even trump the ’90s.
    Unheedable non-advice for under-invested participants: in fierce bull market 3rd waves, one does not overanalyze, one simply presses the buy button.
    Buyable pullbacks are as likely as a dodo-bird strolling down main street.

  35. pooch77 says:

    This pullback will be sharp and fast.Dont want to miss btd

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