Friday update

SHORT TERM: shopping Friday, DOW +69

Over the holiday the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher today and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher over the holiday, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported wider: -$62.0B v -$56.1B. The market opened 3 points above Wednesday’s SPX 2205 record close. At 11am the SPX hit 2211, and then went into a 2 point trading range until just before the close and ended the week at SPX 2213.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.35%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2212 and 2177 pivots, with resistance at the 2270 pivot. On Wednesday the Q4 GDP estimate was reported unchanged at 3.6%, and the WLEI was reported higher: 57.1% v 56.2%.

The market opened at all time highs today, inched higher, and then went sideways for the rest of the day until the close. With the market exceeding SPX 2209 today we have to drop back to our original short term count from SPX 2084. Details in the weekend update. Hope everyone had a happy thanksgiving. Now go shopping. Enjoy the weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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46 Responses to Friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

  2. The last two times wholesale inventories contracted year-over-year, the US economy dropped into recession…Of course,a few people are already predicting a recession,based on the two-term president changeover stats
    –I couldn’t resist posting this…lol

    • tommyboys says:

      Looks more like the ’08/’09 financial crisis recession was about done as these inventories went negative. In fact based on this chart inventories climbed for the first 9 months of the recession and remained positive until those final three months (first 3 months of ’09)… 🤔

  3. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Potential Terminal Move (11/25/16)
    We explore the possibility that the post-election thrust completes the the upswing from the February low. (This is one of several possibilities, but an interesting one.)

    • MTU, none of your charts have any proportioned move for the last wave, especially if compared with all others. We need at list a third move up much longer. ( 3 moves up, and 2 down in total ) Also the red trend lines are totally arbitragers and invented since are based on concept and no facts.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Surprisingly little on the Italian referendum on the various sites probably not that important to the Market or the ”gurus” lying low after the shenanigans with Brexit and US elections.

  5. kingfrogcash says:

    I know that we are not to talk politics anymore. But I am anyway.
    Jill Stein has raised over $5 million towards a goal of $7 million to get a vote recount in
    Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. How is that for an uncertain market.

    • SPYtrader says:

      I don’t get the recount thinking. You have Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Zuckerberg, Soros, the Google boys and so many more with combined net worth in the hundreds of billions of $$. They all supported Clinton. Seems to me that the $7 million would be a slam dunk to raise if it all these elitists thought the recount had any merit.

    • fotis2 says:

      Someone is gonna make a quick buck there …SCAM…

  6. bfquant says:

    Someone take a look at the RUT please. Daily. Is there any evidence that the markets won’t be bought to new highs after the first significant dip when the RUT sports the current, lack of variance look, that it has had, since the beginning of the month.

  7. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, no black Friday shopping in the SPX !

  8. Hugh Jazole says:

    What are the odds we revisit the 1810 area?

  9. Mr C….For RSI,does the 5 bar parameter you use,give better div results on shorter time frames than 14?I-m looking at GDX weekly and the 5 bar RSI gives a +div,but 14 does not.In January,the 14 gave a +div,which was dynamite.Is that something to consider when using RSI?Thanks…have a great weekend.

  10. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony,

    Deduction through logical elimination: melt up continues.

    I thought I’d share some free trading advice, a nice read over the long weekend I hope:

    No need to sign up for anything, no promotion, just use it as one may seem fit.


  11. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Major Bradley turn window begins tomorrow, Nov 26th – 29th, the 2nd of 2 major turn dates/windows in 2016.

    The other turn date/window of 2016 with this type of strength was July 1st – 5th; which was less than 1 week after the Brexit low of June 27th.

    Turns around these time frames can occur up to a week before or after the turn window itself, like in late June with the actual window beginning several days later in early July. Today, the markets are at highs, so the turn should be lower beginning anytime between now to within a week or so of Tuesday the 29th – the end of the window.

    Sometime between now and Tuesday Dec 5th the market should top and begin a much larger pullback/correction lasting at least a couple months, possibly a drop into Q1 2017. That would make sense, seeing how everyone is positioned long heading into year-end, expecting the rally to continue, it would make sense to reverse and catch everyone off guard and un-positioned for it.

    Reminds me of this time last year, right before the Fed raised rates. The markets knew it was coming and were ready for it, but still tanked anyway.

  12. Yawn! Dow 19,488 or Bust! Boring uptrend and so predictable. Fundamental and technical in sync. See nothing but clear skies. 180 degree turnaround for most folks from this time last year. What a change one year makes. Not likely to see much change till the target I posted gets hit. The sooner the target hits the better the chance for a sharp “V” shaped move.

    BTW, still peeking at dollar’s move. It should fall at the same time the market has a decent drop. Enjoy the holidays all!

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