Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new highs again, DOW +67

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2198 record close. In the first few minutes the SPX hit 2204, and then started to pullback. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher: 5.60M v 5.47M. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 2195, and then started to work its way back up again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2205, then dipped to close at 2203.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude dropped 40 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: an abundance of economic indicators, including the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened at all time highs today, nudged higher, pulled back a bit, and then made an even higher high. Thus far this week the market knocked off the SPX 2194 resistance level on Monday, then the 2200 resistance level today. Next resistance level is SPX 2209 and the 2212 pivot range. Our short term count from the SPX 2084 downtrend low is getting somewhat stretched. SPX 2209 should be the maximum level for it to still fit. If exceeded the count will need to be adjusted. Nevertheless, still counting this 121 point advance as wave one of the Minor wave 3 uptrend. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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142 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. torehund says:


    A Norwegian howling choir responding to a more tight asylum policy. Emotions runs rampant, this is Munch style🙂

  2. CB says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family Tony and thanks for all you do to help investors & traders!
    Have a great holiday everyone!
    Here’s something Lee might be thankful for soon ( a new open-outcry exchange opening in Chicago next year?… boutique style, kind of )
    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20161119/ISSUE01/311199996
    So, hopefully you get to enjoy all the yellin’ again Lee =)
    Cheers to all!

  3. Dex T says:

    The market is predicting a rate Hike coming in December! More on the way in 2017!

  4. tomasso60 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony and all other Americans on the site.
    enjoy and best of times with your family and friends

  5. Market will not turn down any significant number, any day after T.giving day, until fully stifled of the projection of the growth see coming at cause of the radical change of gov. structure. Only a disappointing sets of policies can take it down, but can’t see it since Trump nominations for jobs is giving the impression that he knows very well what to do and how to. Also his personal weight is increasing as he is moving on admirably.
    P 3UMP under way, and should start accelerate fairly soon.
    No rate hike for now and for few more months. Rate will hike on facts and not on a promise. There is no facts for now.

  6. pooch77 says:

    Buy them there cryin..Sell them when there yellin

  7. Watch silver for any hope today.Twenty cents off the low.If by some chance it could go green…on the other hand a break of 16.32 will lead to 16.00 and then lower.I’m done for the day.Have a good Thanksgiving everyone.

  8. phil1247 says:

    interesting factoid….for me at least

    when i posted yesterday …..”nice bounce off the extension long /es at 11:30 reversal”

    it had gone 25c below the .618 level at 2192
    i thought i had just been sloppy and thought nothing of it
    now at 9;45 am we fall to WHAT? ……. 2192 and rocket up.

    seeing very technical markets is good…
    upshot….
    this is sometimes a warning that we are in the last rally
    before the extension breaks with a vengence
    mantra…..

    .when the extension breaks….head for the hills

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Russell up 13 days in a row yesterday was a record. Today is now day 14. I think all the bulls should go triple leveraged long Russell right here. Its a screaming buy!

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2016/11/23/its-time-to-stop-paying-attention-to-opec/#d9b671b49ec1

    no one said the market was smart but here’s an interesting article in regard to the OPEC meetings. I’m sure they know this full well and simply meet to jawbone the price. Think about it even a move of 10% only last 30 days on some silly “the meeting went well” comments after talks that amount to nothing, Saudia Arabia would generate another 1.5 billion for itself over the course of a month. The Sheiks will plan a meeting every few months for the indefinite future until their jawboning doesn’t help. Sending over representatives to a meaningless meeting striking or arguing over meaningless deals is the most effective tool they have and that’s the hysterical markets we have. The age of true analysis and fundamentals is gone

    • fionamargaret says:

      None of this really matters ….just the price…oil is going to 60/70….so just enjoy, then short…..them deserving 10 is a moot point…

    • It worked for the Fed the last two years….

    • cyanus66 says:

      The runup to the OPEC conference continues, and pessimism for an accord is rampant (re: most mainstream articles I’ve been seeing: contrarian positive!).
      We’ve now seen 4 clean waves up since the Nov 14th low.
      If the basing pattern that crude and its proxies have been making throughout November completes by mid-next week with a 5th wave up to about 51 CL, then the OPEC ‘show’ will become a binary event – technically unbuyable & unshortable until after the press conference.
      Or as fiona likes to say, UWTI and DWTI will be in equilibrium …

  11. cosmos77 says:

    A series of Bradley turn dates coming up: 11/26 is 100/100 declinations power, 11/28 is 86/100 long terms power, and 11/29 is 100/100 Bradley Siderograph power. Is something big about to happen? Not on 11/26 since that is a Saturday. Will 11/28 be a black Monday? The market is overbought and in need of correction. Will 11/29, (i.e., Tuesday) be the day?, or maybe Dec. 1 which shows weakness many times after a strong November. So many questions and so few answers.

    • cosmos77 says:

      Meant 11/29 “Turnaround Tuesday” be the day or will it hold off until 12/1 which is a likely candidate for the reasons given.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Cosmos, if you have a minute, bluebird would like to know the nitty-gritty of NG…thanks, and hope you have a lovely Thanksgiving x

      • cosmos77 says:

        Fiona,
        I don’t follow NG but took a look at the chart and it has a similar pattern as $GOLD except stronger. Since the top in July at 7.29 and potential double top in early Aug. at 7.27, I can count five waves down to the bottom at 4.00, which looks like good support since it rallied to 5.5 and fell back to about 4 again to form a flat. According to OEW tutorial lesson 4, flats are generally bullish. However, there was also a flat in early September where afterwards it formed a corrective wave 4 and fell to 4. Bottom line, $GOLD appears to be at short-term support at 1200, and if it rally’s from here then NG should rally also but stronger, maybe to resistance at 5.5. Just my 2c.

        Happy turkey day everyone.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thank you Cosmos.
          I read my chart to him, and he is now holding, but would like to know supply/demand stuff…the reason for holding….the stuff you know from your work…Thanks again.

          • cosmos77 says:

            Fiona/Bluebird, NG looks like a favorable risk/reward set up with support at 4 and target of 5.5. Thank you for pointing it out. I’m thinking about taking a position in it.

  12. tommyboys says:

    Why is everyone trying to long gold wanting it higher so badly? I’ll say it again, $700-800 target next 12 months – maybe a bit lower.

  13. kvilia says:

    OK, question to technicians. My gld 15m and daily is very oversold, hourly is not there yet. My technical analysis suffered a huge ego loss, can anyone suggest if we are looking at a bounce off of oversold conditions in gold or there are ways to go lower? Thanks in advance.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      maybe this gives some insight – comment from another blog

      I have the target as either (a) 1172, the 0.618 retrace of Primary W, (This is incidentally Primary X), or (b) 1180-1181, the 1.618 extension for Minute 5.

      I think Lara’s count is correct up to minuette 2 (at 1218.85). The sudden dip today is minuette 3. Her data point of 1206.77 was only subminuette 1. Minuette 3 might be nearing the end now: my BarChart data is delayed.

    • phil1247 says:

      kvilia

      i thought you followed DH analysis

      there is no question what is going on with gold and it is behaving perfectly

      • kvilia says:

        Phil, we are in extensions short on 15 mins chart. 61% retracement from highs I believe is at 1172. Sure, took the positions way early but was expecting HWB hold at 1200 and it did not. And was not able to be at the computer last few days, so… Are you still eyeing to buy this dip?

        • phil1247 says:

          i posted my parameters for buying gold

          break of extension short
          pullback that holds .618 of rally from low
          break short of the initial rally
          get long

          NONE of that has happened yet

  14. Lee X says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to all here . 🇺🇸
    Turn around turkey day perhaps ?
    NIce job Mr. C , enjoy the holiday and turn the email notification off from this blog for a day or two for goodness sake =)

  15. At similar points in GDX a 10% rally occurred from here.
    Sept–25.17 +div–went to 28.70
    Oct–22.50 +div–went to 25.93.
    Today…at 20.13–+div could likewise take it to 22 for a last chance to unload.Goldfingers crossed.

  16. phil1247 says:

    /DX … EURO

    sold half EUO at 27.04 target

    might be a little more but dollar is running out of time

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    John Deere ……….

    The company forecast revenue for 2016 will fall 1% and net income will decline from 1.52 to 1.42billion
    John Deere said it expects equipment sales to decrease 1% for 2017, falling 4% in the 1st Q alone. It also expects sales to decline 5% in the EU in 2017

    but it beat on cost cutting folks. Stock up 10%

    so you have a cyclical stock with no earnings or sales growth this year or next year trading at 22 times earnings in a rising rate environment. But don’t fret folks they are going to sell so many tractors in Trump’s infrastructure plan!!!

    market is near the end when I see crap like this

    • Tax cuts as good as stock buybacks to juice the rationale for pushing it higher.Then Trump Foundation announcing it will be buying stocks via the Fed…lol.It never ends until it does.

  18. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    dow 19000

    is this the D J Trump rally ?
    Dow Jones

    wishing a blessed thanksgiving to you and your family

  19. pooch77 says:

    Will rut drop as hard and fast as it went up?

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I am stunned its up again ……14 days in a row right now. This is such a messed up market

      • mcgcapital says:

        Nearly done.. Europe turned lower yet again, so once the Dow stops advancing we can all go down together. Trump seems to be watering down all of his promises made on the campaign trail so expecting the tax cuts and infrastructure spending to be below sky high expectations once it becomes clear how much the debt ceiling would need to be raised by.

      • dwr51 says:

        What is so mixed up about it, it is what it is. Just because it doesn’t fit with your expectations doesn’t mean anything. You can ride it up, ride it down or sit it out. It is up to you and you alone. But don’t expect anyone or everyone on this board to agree with you. It is your money trade how you wish but don’t complain about, it because it does not take a genius to figure out who is making money and who isn’t
        .

  20. kvilia says:

    I was wrong on gold.

  21. captbara says:

    And welcome to 1100s, gold. We were waiting! Well, some of us🙂

  22. gary61b says:

    ES needs to touch 2195.50 before moving up. If it is not done going up already.

  23. gary61b says:

    Trump train…..(CNN)Hillary Clinton’s campaign is being urged by a number of top computer scientists to call for a recount of vote totals in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to a source with knowledge of the request.

    • tony caldaro says:

      HRC already conceded

      • Article I read said a recount and inspection of electronic machines must be initiated by Friday in Michigan and next Wednesday in Pennsylvania.Some Clinton insiders are pushing her to challenge.
        On gold…1180 could give a bounce…would take GDX below 20.Not sure if +divs would apply.As I said for quite a while…bull market theory ended at 1260.Will add any +divs if I see them for short term trades,but this med,long term up move is long gone.

    • purplember says:

      hope she does recount and i hope they recount the crimes of clinton foundation.

      • Like emails and Benghazi? How much time and tax payer expense was that? I believe the congress spend more time on that than actually accomplishing anything. Imagine having a dozen inquiries, even partisan ones, and come away with NADA. Seems their agenda is to place anger and blame away from their incompetence and own greed.

        But hey what do I know. Look at Trump. He dropped Clinton investigation, the wall, mass deportation, abandoning dismantling Obamacare, Muslim registration, and is acting as if he was voted in regardless of the issues. I guess all the Trumpeters already forgave him? Where is the protest from his own constituents? He is NOW just another politician and will tow the Republican line. tax cuts for wealthy and poor starving corporations, pennies left over go to the middle class, cut social programs, add to massive debt with infrastructure spending and military. Yes another Bush, round two. DUPED! His cabinet on the defense side is a bit scary and that’s where I start worrying. Deciding that 2 billion Muslims follow a fake religion is not going to sit well.

        I stated right here that his narcissistic behavior will force him to pretend he is a great man with great vision. He needs to have a legacy that people will praise him for. he is obsessed with having people view him as a great man. Bush on steroids, and a paranoid irrational military team that angers easily and can push us into a war we can’t win.

        As for market action: Same suggestion I made 3 weeks ago. Huge momentum and target at upper most limit should be 19,488 on DOW, some 450 points higher.

        • Lee X says:

          3 paragraphs of political diarrhea and 1 paragraph of “Like I said”

        • tony caldaro says:

          Don’t believe anything you read until it comes from the DJ’s mouth.
          The past few months has been the worse period in journalism I can ever remember.
          The media has been divisive and has spun stories worse than politicians.
          Maybe GOOG, FB and TWTR should start fact finding the Media as well.

          • They ONLY reported the public speeches. There was nothing else to go by. Are you suggesting he never gave a clear agenda? His statement that he could kill someone and get away with it seems to hold true. He can reverse himself on every agenda and it matters not. Strange public behavior that indicates his persona is more important than actual deeds.

            • tony caldaro says:

              It’s not what he said, it is how what he said was reported … negative spin
              His agenda is clear, and the goal of the media is to muddied it up until it is acted upon.
              Populists, unlike politicians, act upon their campaign promises.
              Expect what he said, or some modification of it, and you will not be surprised.

      • Lee X says:

        Cmon dude you won , let it be

  24. Dear Tony, thank you for the continuous daily updates. I suggest that the SOX weekly chart at page 2, could fit the Primary V count scenario shown on the NYSE weekly chart of page 1, nicely and better than most other indices. Given also that SOX is hitting the 820-900 very significant resistance zone from the early 2000, it is worth exploring as an option. If correct, it has severe implications for the market going forward, as it would suggest we are late into wave V. Thanks again. George

  25. torehund says:

    https://www.scribd.com/document/15475184/Understanding-the-Real-Economy-5-15-09

    Large read from Armstrong, but enjoy the concentrated words of wisdom. Think he wrote the piece while in prison.
    Interestingly he limits the EW as to being unable to predict waterfall events beforehand, 8th dimension. I have myself experienced such devastating events at exact spots where a bullish outcome was a sure thing. Adding oscillators into the play might help but not altogether prevent disaster. Or accepting that a sure 100 bagger might as well turn into a 1/100 as well🙂
    If P-III is about to occur I would think of it as being a reversed waterfall, and panicky quick to its feet, lets see🙂
    Happy holydays to all of you.

  26. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Technicals Model continues to demonstrate success, even in the face of negative divergences which built up late last week, and have since been negated. Higher prices are ahead. But need to keep in mind that there are significant negative divergences on Breadth and %stocks above their major ma since summer. Also looming are the negative divergences on MACD of SPX, $HYG:IEF, and Oil.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  27. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Oh my, another neg. D on that spx chart…. Also, today’s bearish doji is supposed to be (yes) bearish… : )
    JPMorgan Chase & Co seems to be the only one that didn’t get the melt-up memo today…Here’s what they said: “Not so fast…. Financial markets might have overstated the size and likely impact of Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal agenda.”…( via Bloomberg)

  28. torehund says:

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

    old but nevertheless an interesting article about cycles and Armstrongs predictions.

    • fionamargaret says:

      You know I like this Tore…a life of patterns, cadences, syncopation…everything unrelated, related….if you can do music, you can do oil….

      • torehund says:

        Yes, its just that we are also consumed by our own personal cycles. So sometime our arms are tied and we appear blind and paralytic. All in all we have less choices than what appears, but then you have what Martin describes as phase transitions, at these times life could change on a dime…We all have these milestones of our own, and they happen from time to time in markets too. If we get plunged at least we get plunged somewhere. Regarding oil; its close to a monumental happening, which way I dont know for sure.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Oil is going up to 60-70….though they deserve 10…you can’t run a business without agreements sticking, and considering others….

    • CB says:

      Very interesting. Thanks Tore. I didn’t realize that he was such a controversial figure…

      • torehund says:

        You are welcome CB. Found a link posted here with lots of his original work.
        Funny how the really smart individuals avoided formal schooling, too enlightened to receive the Nobel Price in Economics, and he has integrity too.

    • blubrd67 says:

      Ah, Hélène always has her ows inimitable approach to any piece! I didn’t pay too much attention to her playing before I heard her interpretation of Bach.

      Btw, the Lang Lang Beethoven you posted the other day was also interesting. Are you intentionally finding pianists who were outcast, then found a way to change? ;))
      Early Lang Lang had dazzling technique, but was lacking sophistication. It seems he improved there as he matured.
      It’s not always bad to accumulate a few years after all… if wisely lived.

  29. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ WR3 @ 2210
    Happy Holidays Everyone!

  30. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Ndx trying to break out.

  31. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE (Commodities): Gold & Oil now both in downtrends; anyone noticed?
    (hourly futures)-

    • fotis2 says:

      GLD confirmed a medium term trend change 03/10 with a close bellow -100 on weekly CCI so short the ralies on daily(Lambrt’s CCI correction system).

  32. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Rut hourly futures –

  33. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Corrective waves are tilting upwards at this stage on the indices, or continuation pattern if you like. Euro isnt doing a lot after a long decline, sign of its impending final demise. Impressive rut action it hocks much better than the rest on the oscillators, BULL🙂

    • torehund says:

      Look at 60 min chart on the $INDU (Tonys chart), macd sharp turn upwards from a pyramid with positive divergence, can it ever look better ?

  34. johnnymagicmoney says:

    this is the way I see it…………..

    From a daily perspective I see the S&P running into its upper trend line at 2209 (one of Tony’s key areas) immediately. From a monthly perspective I see a diagonal from 07 that targets 2300 but the slope is about 17 to 20 S&P points per month. So I am with Tony on this particular run ending very soon (tomorrow on low volume grind IMHO) and depending on how much time elapses I would say this entire bull ends in a range of

    2300 Jan16 to 2400 May 17

    then its dollar strength, inflation, rising rates, currency swings, tightening, lower earnings from higher dollar, and the waning optimism of Trump’s presidency

    then ba boom!!!

  35. Thanks Tony
    DOW DB target is 20600,reached 38,2% of it at 19k
    19k also is resistance by fibo
    Interesting that 20600 now appears like being 1,68% of pennant/flag target
    http://invst.ly/2tedy

  36. Thanks Tony. I don’t like working with 15 min time frames but I had to to understand what this little puppy want to do. Yesterday I mentioned the 4th wave Fib extension to be 2202 but actually its 2202.9…….say 2203. But its not at the top of the drawn channel. After hours it got in the 2205 area, converting ES to $SPX. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DQHt5cia/

  37. DeMark weekly R1 at SPX 2202.8 is strong resistance…

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