Monday update

SHORT TERM: SPX makes all time high, DOW +89

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2191 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2182 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit the all time high at 2194, then pulled back to 2188 by 10:30. After that the SPX made a new all time high at 2198 around 1pm. Then inched higher yet to SPX 2199 before closing at 2198.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.95%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rallied $2.05, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

The SPX gapped up at the open today to start the week. Hit the all time high at SPX 2194, pulled back, then made a new all time high. We now have three of the four major US indices at new all time highs, with only the NDX currently lagging. The first rally of this uptrend, which still appears to be in its 5th wave, cleared the first resistance at SPX 2194 today. Next resistance is the SPX 2200 level, and then the 2212 pivot. Still negative divergences on the daily SPX/DOW charts, and slight negative divergences on their hourly charts too. Currently this first wave up has rallied 115 points from the SPX 2084 downtrend low. This compares quite favorably with the first rallies of the previous two uptrends: 137 and 117 points. Best to your holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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107 Responses to Monday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    My God small caps on roids.16%in 12 days

  2. CampFreddie says:

    New all time highs in Spx, Rut, Dow were supposed to be “Impossible ! ” apparently, but happened anyway.

  3. phil1247 says:

    /ES

    nice bounce from extension long at 11:30 reversal period

    must trade above 2199 to break short in order to reach extension long target of 2207

    or 2210 for spx fans

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    O M G

    the market CRASHED

    it went down 10 handles!!!!

    HOLY MOLY!!! BUY OF THE CENTURY!!!!! lol

  5. H D says:

    10 HanDle hit from 10AM, Welcome back BOTs.

    Tony, all- Happy Thanksgiving. Have a great holiday.

  6. http://www.marketwatch.com/trading-deck/stories?authorid=11267
    Gold bugs should check that link out.Here’s a snippet:
    Back in August 1971, President Nixon shocked the world by taking the dollar off the gold standard. The dollar had been on gold standard since Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. The biggest bombshell for gold investors in 45 years since Nixon’s announcement may be ahead. That bombshell is a potential ban on import of gold into India. If this happens, there is a high probability of a one-day drop in gold that could reach $200.
    Later all.

    • The news has been out for many days now. the drop should have already happened. I grant an actual ban would cause a possible limit down day. Rumor as opposed to reality. Is there any specifics on when or how they might announce such a ban? Hard to bet on a rumor. if it turns out to be false the exact opposite could occur.

    • phil1247 says:

      more conspiracy theories ???

      see my post to you below

  7. jeffbalin says:

    Thought we hit Tony’s pivot line perfectly on the 60 min spx chart but the 2212 pivot line is in the wrong place I think

    Always grateful Tony!

  8. captbara says:

    ST support at 2192, 2187

  9. Doesn’t anyone think its strange that the two least favorable outcomes (Brexit and Trump)for markets,turned into 90-100 point rallies?Totally conjured up by CB intervention both times(each was foretold by EU spokeman.”We have billions ready to assist the markets,post election .”)At least I understood that,after Brexit took S&P up 90 points to save a free fall.The CBs figure that–what can’t go down…must go up.

  10. Gold tried to break 1220 overnight…couldn’t hold 1217.Back to 1200 likely.Test,fail.Moment of first truth.1180–then a bungee jump.Can’t fight the Fed and CBs–they don’t want gold up,bottom line.

    • phil1247 says:

      learned

      why do gold bugs invoke conspiracy theories when gold goes down
      but its fundamentals when it goes up?

      gold is behaving perfectly normally
      if you recall i mentioned it was a sale at 1310
      looking for 1211 in the current time frame

      and i did not even consult with the fed or any other central banker

      • 1.We’ve already had admissions of manipulation of gold by various European banks.
        2.I posted an article of how ECB is allowing (probably encouraging)leasing of gold to prop up DB and others.
        3.I believe the Fed is as involved as ECB.
        4.Fed wants a generally strong dollar.Weak dollar means gold rallies.I believe they intervened a couple times at least twice this year at DXY 94.
        5.Now that Trump is in,they have a pass-based on sentiment,to raise rates and pound gold.
        6.The gold rally was Trump insurance–which got cashed in.
        I’ll sell rallies in GDX up to 23.30 and the rest to 25.If they let me…lol.

        • There was also prosecution of currency manipulation and stock front running manipulation.
          Everything gets manipulated by crooks if there is an opportunity to do so. the long term implications are zero. The FED is manipulating this? ECB wants our strong dollar and oil attached to it? Wants out rate hikes? Trump had ZERO to do with rise in spending. Hillary was going to do the EXACT same thing. It’s just where the money gets spent that mattered, not the spending.

          This conspiracy theory is debunked based on a 7 year track record. Impossible to control the trillions floated for this long. I suppose you believe the domestic economy didn’t actually add millions of jobs? No ability of consumer to generate increased spending?

          KISS. Stick to a system and tweak it if it proves inconsistent. Discard personal bias and emotional attachments. Not easy to do and a majority never accomplish this goal. I am still trying to match my analytical views with betting. Emotions and bias is hard to ignore. Reason why there are so few Warren Buffets in the world.

  11. mcgcapital says:

    Was stopped out of my FTSE shorts at 6825 but back in at 6850. European markets still look fairly tepid, with the dax below the key 10800 level and FTSE price action not really that inspiring considering we cleared 6800 after a week long consolidation. Still think a pullback is more likely than not. Lots of bullishness around, but even strong up moves have corrections and one is due after a 6% advance (8.5% from the futures low) in 2 weeks. Confirmation would come firstly from a break back into last week’s trading range and then clearly the range to the downside (18800 Dow, 6730 FTSE).

    • CampFreddie says:

      Very brave to short here imo.
      Ftse looks very bullish to me, and Dax looks poised for a substantial upthrust breakout.
      GL.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Initially I thought a clean break of 6820 would see a huge rally but I’ve been unimpressed it’s only managed to add 30 points this morning. I’ll be out the trade at 6870 if the Bulls manage to gain more momentum. I’m surprised the weaker euro hasn’t helped the Dax more, but again I would exit on a clean break of 10800. Just playing set ups and not worrying too much about whether we’re going up or down 40% next.

      • captbara says:

        Agreed. Dax is bull flagging and is due to catch up.

  12. As per numbers, I see at least 231 SPY for the Santa Rally minimum achievement.

    If no win a minor abc on ES globex the jump in should be at 2194 area with stops at 2190.

  13. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Spx (and others) consolidating:
    Spx hourly futures –

  14. fotis2 says:

    Hello everyone and GL!!(World hello day)..Log chart on CL daily something for the Bears.

    http://invst.ly/2t7l0

  15. John Bell says:

    Long time reader of the blog and only post occasionally so a bit long here. Thanks.

    we are probably in the third wave now. The small wave 2 was probably over a week ago last Thurs-Mon. Mon-Tues a week ago I loaded heavy into stocks and today on confirmation of a break-out added more. Will probably add just a little more tomorrow and then hope to hang on and hold for a while – Mid January top?.

    When most of Wall Street Guessed the election wrong, they also guessed the trading moves wrong. All were calling for a large down move on Trump win and positioned that way. Much cash was raised before the election.

    Then all were still calling for a correction when the high beta indexes blasted to new highs and have been up 12 days in a row does not seem logical. In these cases it only seemed logical that a correction would come only after all indexes have made new highs and then use those as support.

    Many were calling for a smallish? correction for 2 reasons.
    1) They were not in.
    2) it just could not melt up and leave them. It had to correct to give an easy obvious entry point.

    Since many/most are not in enough yet. they will gradually put more money in as they scale the wall of correction fear = Melt up. To have a correction that all are looking for and all would buy is too obvious to happen. People jump the gun and very small dips are bought and the melt up starts. And continues until most people finally have enough money in.

    The week before Thanksgiving is usually bullish with mostly buying and little selling. With all the cash on the sidelines raised before the election and also cash raised assuming market was topping (if Dems won – yes it was). But with Trump real growth and fiscal action is again a possibility. He likes America and He likes to build things.

    The bull market was getting tired with only the central banks holding everything up and companies having to fake real growth data more and more. All central bankers complained that they could not do it alone and needed fiscal government action that never came as it was too easy NOT to do any fiscal action. Now with Trump we may finally get real government growth action. At least that is how the market is reacting now. The market now has energy and hope it has not had in several years.

    2380 mid January?

    Have a nice night.

    • NEWBIE says:

      This is not the time to get bullish, the time was at 700 spx, 1000 spx, 1500, 1800 , etc not here at 2100+

      • locanbbs says:

        The least we can expect is a blow-out top. Nobody wants to miss-out on the Xmas rally!

      • Tara Wade says:

        I completely disagree. You can only make such statements with the benefit of hindsight. I can imagine you saying at the time “it is ridiculous to go long at 1800”. Look what happened. Bull markets last a lot longer than 3 years – more like 13. I suggest you view Chris Ciovacco’s latest video on YouTube.

      • tommyboys says:

        Poor NEWB has said the same at SP 1200, 1500, 1600, 1800, 2000 etc… Eventually we’ll make a top whether it’s this werk or in 2019 but the what’s the point of chronically “warning” on it and missing the big moves over years. Markets move north 75% of the time and calling tops – as he’s proven – is futile. I say, “so what”, we’ll top then we’ll bottom again, that’s the market. Great observations John Bell.

    • locanbbs says:

      Well said, John Bull!

      • locanbbs says:

        Sorry, John Bell, but perhaps you could just as well be named “John Bull”!

        • locanbbs says:

          Sorry again, “John Bull” it occurs to me is the personification of Great Britain. But anyway you stand for a “bull market”!

    • CampFreddie says:

      John Bull- very well put and agree, and have agreed at much lower prices also.

  16. stormchaser80llc says:

    Thursday and Friday my technical analysis flashed a warning for bulls with nearly all negative divergences put in place. However, this is a case of divergences not working out with the surge today breaking more than several of these.

    Fortunately my proprietary Technicals Model continued to show a lot of bullish support, and my signals remained LONG.

    Today with new $SPX highs, breadth indicators along with those indicators on the percent of stocks above their 20/50 dma, put in pretty good negative divergences from the last high during the summer. This likely is the first step to a number of signs that a turn lower is coming, one that would be prudent to keep an eye out for. But for now, the Technicals Model continues to support the BULLS.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  17. blackjak100 says:

    futes up to 2203. Classic everyone (not just on this blog) looking for pullback to 2150. That usually means it’s not coming and the market will keep on marching higher.

  18. captbara says:

    🐂🚂 again. Very similar feeling to back in March, except amplified because it’s like the 3rd wave to the 4th degree. Just ride the MA’s until they don’t work.

  19. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Are we going to enter a dollar mania ?

  20. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: New channel Spx –

  21. locanbbs says:

    Gold also breaking upwards.

  22. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: US-Indices overriding tops/sell-signals/pivots and now really impulsing and “trending”!? – New buy-signal!
    Ndx/Spx –

  23. bfquant says:

    Look at the unabated, lack of day-to-day variance, move in the Russell 2000 since early November. Optically, looking back over the last five years, whenever this has happened, the next dip is bought to at least one more new high before even having a prayer of making a new intermediate low (i.e below November’s low).

  24. If 2209 is taken out, then either minute wave 3 is in progress, or an ending diagonal in play at around 2230,
    or from 1810 5 Int waves as follows.
    2111 199 points
    1991 120 points
    2193 202 points
    2083 90 points
    Final wave up 2282 max to end it all
    Happy turkey week all good luck

  25. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE (Gold – for Fiona): Gold is making progress, but “wave” 4 has overlapped 1-2, so it’s probably just an A-B-C in a new sideways trading channel.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Yesterday’s trade (see arrows on chart) closed. Waiting for next (buy) signal in this Xmas Rally! (Wave count à la Trader Joe.)
    Spx futures hourly –

  28. We probably can not expect the NYSE A-D line to be as strong in this uptrend as in the previous ones of the bull market beginning in 2009.. That is because there are many convertible and preferred stocks on the NYSE which act a lot like bonds. With long term interest rates rising, thus knocking bonds into a bear market (of uncertain duration), those types of stocks will not join the common stocks to the upside.
    I believe the NASDAQ A-D line should be relatively stronger because it contains primarily common stocks whose trend will be more dependent on economic growth than on ultra-low interest rates.

  29. pooch77 says:

    Tony what is NAS all time high?5600?

    • tony caldaro says:

      NAZ 2000 high was 5133
      NDX 2000 high was 4816
      NAZ hit ATH today at 5370
      NDX hit ATH in Oct. 4912

      • pooch77 says:

        I stated last week when the QQQs caught up with rest of the market that would be the top. I stand by that and strongly believe a pullback is in order starting next Monday

  30. 123 abc says:

    It appears the 2212 pivot range is drawing in. However, since Wave3 cannot be the shortest, therefore the maximum upside for Wave5 is 2209 where Wave3 equals Wave5.


    • fionamargaret says:

      My numbers at first glance suggest a retrace to about 2150….does this make sense.

    • Thanks Tony. When I read that the oil producer were close an agreement and saw the behavior of VIX, my thinking of shorts quickly evaporated. 123 makes interesting observations and I would simply add (what you know) that wave 5 can be mathematically connected to wave 3 or the cumulative gains made through Wave 3……….about 100 points. If we take 50% of this (50 pts) and add it to 2152 we get 2202. Further, the 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 4 is………..drumbeat……….2202. Its a level to watch and maybe trade if VIX starts cooperating unlike today when it dropped close to a point.

    • soulsurfer says:

      nice count abc, however, i would place micro 1 and the 2151.17 low on 11/10, then micro 2 at the 2152.48 low for 11/11, then nano i,ii,iii,iv subsequent highs and lows, with an irregular nano ii (2156.08), now in micro 5 targeting 2207-2209. if it goes beyond 2209 we need to count the whole advance as 1,2,i,with ii to come since then iii<i<v

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