Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: rally resumes, DOW +54

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 three of four economic reports were positive. Retail sales: 0.8% v 0.6%, export prices: 0.2% v 0.4%, import prices: -0.1% v 0.0%, NY FED: 1.5 v -6.8. The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2164 close and moved higher. At 10am business inventories were reported higher: 0.1% v 0.2%. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 2173. Then after a small pullback to SPX 2168, it started to move higher again. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2181, then closed at 2180.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.20%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rallied $2.55, Gold rose $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2177 and 2131 pivots, with resistance at the 2212 and 2270 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, then the NAHB at 10am.

The market opened higher today, then in the afternoon broke out of its recent trading range (2151-2178), when it hit SPX 2181. Before the open we discussed, in the OEW forum, the possibility of the recent action being a 4th wave triangle, as noted by some, and the uptrend has only done four small waves up thus far, instead of five: 2147-2125-2182-2151 … Today’s action adds to that possibility, as we do not believe Minute wave ii has completed/occurred yet. The early action today appeared to be profit taking in the industrial/financials, and buying in the growth sector. Should the growth sector continue rising this uptrend could start moving quite fast again. Short term support is at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2151, with resistance at SPX 2194 and the 2212 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Tuesday update

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      no idea if a no vote leads to a leave the EU referendum which leaves to a Italexit but one thing for sure that is different than Trump or the UK is there banking system and their yields are completely and utterly dependent on the EU backstop. If they left that would be a game changer, a black swan, and a crisis inducer. Who knows if or how long it would take.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Well al the polls are saying they will vote NO. So if this year is anything to go by they will probably vote YES

        I agree there would not be a just a shock drop from an Italexit It will be an all out crash.

  1. fotis2 says:

    Phew!Another one of those flat days.

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    this is the dumbest market of all time

  3. bud67 says:

    ref NY A/D line – my loyal tech indicator….is flashing a signature of “old age”.
    In saying that, the rise from Jan 2016 to today – looking very extended. Can’t
    be certain the NY A/D line can sustain a further market advance, near term…Bud

  4. torehund says:


    From the 1 day chart it looks like the Euro is in a W-3 down from recent top.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, this market just went from super active to super boring. ZZZzzzz…..

  6. bud67 says:

    ref NY A/D line….since 11/3, the NY a/d line has been short term Bullish,
    but. Now, it appears to be setting up for a pause to refresh, or rest, near term.
    Something to monitor, if your long the SP….

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    also has anyone noticed the upward sloping trend line on the VIZ dating back to the highs on the S&P? about 15 or 16 touches and holding every time. even yesterday as the S&P rallied it held in check right on the trend line at 13 and change.

    Pretty interesting

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Fiona & Phil (by the way that sounds like a talk show doesn’t it??)

    where do you see TLT retracing to before it sells back of again?

    • fionamargaret says:

      …ultimately TLT looks to go to 100…..how high are rates going to be to equate to that…?
      at the moment it has a little footing ….. but better at 114/115……

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    up .6%
    up 2.5%
    up .18%
    up 3.2%
    up 1.5%
    up 2.4%
    up 1.3%
    up .25%
    up .22%

    up 9 days in a row 13% overall

    seriously?? does anyone want to load up on the RUT right now???

  10. vivelaamo says:

    Does anyone know what affect Oil price would have on small caps? R2K in particular?

  11. For blackjack:Stockcharts has a story on the Hindenburg Omen today.Later all.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ W/M/Y Pivot Resistance Confluence @ 219 ~ 219.50
    W1 ends there, or breaks through, next YR @ 224


  13. Oil inventories up 5.5 million bbls.Oil rallies?Oh wait,the big OPEC meeting will save everything…that’s right.Carry on.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Keep an eye on the RUT. Its topping here.

  15. Jim Guthery says:

    Anybody thinking of shorting DRYS?

  16. mcgcapital says:

    Correction underway on the FTSE. We fakeout above 6820 resistance after hours and have now broken below yesterday’s low around the 6770 pivot. 6650 is my minimum target but probably lower towards 6500 if the Dow turns lower too.

  17. Mr C…when you get a WROC signal and the RSI is over 80,what kind of upside can you expect from that point on?Thanks.

  18. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    SPX, 60 min chart. Macd hocking up, so we could hike in an abc straight to 2250, c-wave then in progress 🙂

  19. cosmos77 says:

    Interesting wave count. From Minor 2 at 2083, I see four micro waves up: 2147, 2125, 2182 and 2152. The fifth micro wave is weak and almost looks corrective. Weak fifth waves have been a characteristic of this bull market. Will have to see where it goes from here to complete minute wave I. Just guessing, If micro 5 equals micro 1 (which was 46 pts), minute I could top at 2197 which is a likely place to pause. Do not see this weak fifth wave it going beyond 2200 without a catalyst. 2194 to 2200 seems to be the limit for minute wave i.

  20. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. And…interesting. FWIW…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks of course to Tony………and everyone

    • Wow, that was quite good.
      Never heard of Nino Gvetadze.
      Most of the Beethoven keyboard stuff favors men soloists – BIG reach in the hands!!
      In the 19th Century much of it was rarely played in public (the Concertos) + Violin 61.
      Couldn’t find any soloists who could play it.
      Beethoven had a very dry sense of humor 🙂

    Tuesday, November 15, 2016
    Bond will under-perform
    If you own bonds, you’re going to have a hard time in the next year. The peak was made in the bond market weeks ago. Now you’re going the other way, and it could be years of a bear market in bonds.

    Can the country survive with a 5% yield on the 10-year note? Of course it can. But it will be bad for the bond market. Of course, there are ETFs that will take care of that fact if you want, with the inverse products like the TBT.

  22. stormchaser80llc says:

    It looks like $VIX needs to make lower lows before a tradeable bounce occurs. My proprietary Technicals Model remains quite bullish, but slightly less bullish than $SPX today. This leg higher is likely not finished, but we continue to monitor for negative divergences that may emerge shortly.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  23. Didn’t reenter yet but I should tomorrow if we get a retrace of sorts. The target I still see on the upside is some 600 DOW points away. Still watching the dollar to see if it too breaks out. Not yet convinced of this move but will play it anyway since the charts are pretty convincing.

    • bud67 says:

      Interesting comment, FYI – I do not normally enter an ongoing up/down trend in the
      SSO, or SP500 (later I do follow). Make my share of mistakes, most of which are avoided by – waiting the SP500, or market out for a key turning point to evolve, ie. key price low, or high….been reading your comments, wish you the best…Bud

  24. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  25. Thanks Tony

    I attribute most of today’s gain to the double helix of oil and VIX. Crude was up around 5.5% and the VIX was down around 7.7%.

    Some were yammering about bonds but rates closed almost unchanged (as Tony notes) at around 2.2% on the ten year treasury and rates are trading higher after hours.

    Yesterday I mentioned 2.4% as a key level while others frequently mention 2.5% as a critical level. “And it is important to note that the average dividend for S&P 500 stocks is 2.1%, according to FactSet data, less than the yield on the 10-year Treasury, highlighting the reason investors might feel compelled to rotate out of stocks and into government bonds at some point in the near future.

    On the other hand, “sentiment on the 30-year Treasury bond remains at an almost “extreme pessimistic level,” he said, while commitments of traders data on both 10-year and 30-year Treasury futures show that “smart-money commercials” are increasing their net long positions”

    $NYA is only 1.5% percentage points from making a new high.

    Lastly, a question for Tony:

    “and the uptrend has only done four small waves up thus far, instead of five: 2147-2125-2182-2151 … Today’s action adds to that possibility, as we do not believe Minute wave ii has completed/occurred yet.”

    Tony if we take out 2182.30, which the futures did after hours, will you label the current wave?

  26. lunker1 says:

    maybe nested 1,2’s
    2147, 2125
    2182, 2151 or 52 or 52.5

  27. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony.

    So I would gladly take one more retest lows for Gold and start the upward movement.

  28. 123 abc says:

    Tony et OEW forum, thank you for the count update.

    Personally just seeing 7 waves from 2125 to 2182. So currently thinking the previous count of wave-2 is still in progress —possibly an Irregular Flat if new highs occur. Is the first chart below a possibility under OEW guidelines?

  29. Thanks. Do you think that financials and industrials may reverse from here, or continue to go up but perhaps a bit more slowly?

  30. micky says:

    Bud I am awaiting your answer to Phil …

  31. Lee X says:

    Throwing stones are we ?

  32. Lee X says:

    Thanks dude

Comments are closed.