Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up then choppy day, DOW +218

Overnight the Asian markets gained 3.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 254K v 265K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2173, then rallied to 2182 in the opening minutes. The market had closed at SPX 2163 yesterday. The market then had its largest pullback since this rally began. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2151. After that the market became quite choppy. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2163, pulled back to 2152 at 11am, rallied to 2167 by 11:30, then dropped to 2158 by noon. A rally to SPX 2178 by 2pm followed. Also at 2pm the budget deficit was reported lower: -$44.2B v -$136.6B. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2167 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.20%. Bonds lost 21 ticks, Crude dropped 90 cents, Gold fell $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today and rallied to SPX 2182. It then dropped to SPX 2151 by the first hour of trading. After that it remained in that wide range for the rest of the day. At today’s high, as noted yesterday, we could count five small waves up from SPX 2084-2182. The large pullback that followed suggests this count could be correct. The market has rallied 98 points in just four days. Also, while the tech sector was hit with selling today the SPX/DOW are both in confirmed uptrends. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum ended the day just above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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173 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    DUST may be the best play til the end of the year. Lines up with the continued weakness in USDCAD as well. JPY moves also points to USD strength.

  2. kvilia says:

    Is anybody picking up GDX here?

  3. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony & all Veterans 🇺🇸
    SPY ~ Pattern for Wave 1 seems incomplete?
    GL & Good Weekend All

  4. kvilia says:

    Phil, Do you listen to what DH is saying about COMEX blowing up and GC going to zero vs physical gold? Trying to comprehend it.

  5. bud67 says:

    In My Opinion. the EW count for the SP500 remains Bullish
    to a min of 2135, and likley much higher, ie. 2,500. Thus,
    There is much more room for price to advance. NY A/D line
    also looks favorable, imo…..

  6. kvilia says:

    Do you still think interest rates are not going up aggressively?

  7. vivelaamo says:

    RUT is looking like new ATH next week.

  8. tarheel74 says:

    My best guess on cl is 42 to 43, I’ll look to short again after a bounce to 47

  9. captbara says:

    Gold daily HnS target $1000. Makes sense with USD ripping.

  10. Blackjack…another HO today,with 166 new highs and 164 new lows.But barely…McClellan is only -1.43.If it goes positive,HO is eliminated.

  11. lunker1 says:

    2hr candles still holding support at 2157.5

  12. kvilia says:

    Will you take 1218 for a bottom?

  13. Phil,why is the 1211 level so significant?Like I said,possible trip there today.

  14. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Goldman Sachs move in two days accounted for 220 DOW points

  15. EL MATADOR says:

    Tony thank you for your honorable service to our great country.

    As for Mr Market, the is a high probably that Mr Market closes with and Evening Doji Star. Might be light out and ride back to retest election circuit break low.

  16. vivelaamo says:

    Moved Dow short stop to break even. Will close position today even though it will probably close for me. Don’t fancy being short over the weekend.

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