Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW in an uptrend +73

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were flat to lower overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2126. The SPX had closed at 2132 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 2124, and then started to rally. The rally continued until around 1pm when the SPX hit 2147. Then the market started to pullback. The market pulled back to SPX 2135 by 2:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2144 in the closing hour the market closed at 2140.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today, found support at SPX 2124, which was yesterday’s 3:30 low, then advanced to a new rally high at 2147. At the high there was a short term negative divergence and the market declined to SPX 2135. At this stage of the advance one could count five small waves up from Friday’s SPX 2084 low: 2099-2085-2132-2124-2147. After more than two months of choppy activity, there is nothing choppy about this rally. Short term support at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum dropped below overbought after the negative divergence, and ended the day there. Election results up ahead. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: DOW uptrending, SPX likely to follow

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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447 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Tony how high have you seen the MACD get on the hourly DOW at any point? That F-er looked kinda ridic no?

  2. James David says:

    Market saw how it reacted to Brexit and now positioning itself to catch the ride up. They will all get caught at the top

  3. tommyboys says:

    RUT leading HUGE

  4. H D says:

    anybody know the stat for the single largest intraday range for ES in points?

  5. pooch77 says:

    The obvious trade now was Friday close as even with a flat open Monday the weekly charts would have opened with a very oversold print,stoch would have been around 5

  6. blackjak100 says:

    Still looks like a ‘third of a third of a third to me’…shorting off the table

  7. mtu MTU says:

    [310pm] INDU update-
    The Dow is less than 40 points shy of a new all-time high. See bull/bear tracking chart.

  8. phil1247 says:

    sold all schx

    at spx 2165

  9. Peter Sliney says:

    Can’t underestimate the amount of on winding that pushing this market but it looks pretty clear 2200 is in the cards. Give Trump a few weeks and he’ll say something to make us all run for cover.

    • pooch77 says:

      I think 2179 then down into T-Day

    • Narcissists always puts on a new persona. He wants his legacy to match his own image of himself. He will behave on the outside and put pressure internally on his own Republicans. if it doesn’t work he will vocalize his disappointment to the public but will do so as all past presidents have done. Last night was a cookie cutter response with no DIGS. Running and winning are two different beasts. His thoughts and attempted actions might be as before but he will be reigned in.

      No sign of any deep reversal today. Suggest we are still seeing a powerful upside surge. Expect it to still be on target for mid week of next topping. Good trading and thank goodness the drama is over.

  10. wanderer says:

    From my angle, I see the upthrust as completed, so I am short ES from 2163.75. I will probably close this short position by the end of the day.

  11. Ajay, Any stops?. Thanks

  12. I read a strong, very strong momentum play last week and today confirms it. No PPT could cause the type of action we have seen. Shallow drop with zero struggle to hold. I should have believed my own assumptions today and held on but the reversal was so sharp and fast that I got unhinged. Still can’t focus on next bet. I will assume we are due for a shallow corrective move in a day or so followed by the last big push higher.

    Good luck all. Anyone thinkin we are that much closer to a crash scenario should question why the delay? if it was going to be soon the catalyst was there today.

    • Interpreting the move today as pro Trump isn’t wise. As Buffett stated he never cares who wins election. Bad presidents in good market cycles and visa versa. The momentum surge I expected from late last week seems to be the cause. If you try to “interpret” based on the minutia of dangerous future scenarios you will invariably lose. Do a TONY. Just the facts without predetermining it’s future meaning. My 1,000 plus DOW upside seems intact. That suggests another 50 to 60 SPX points to go. I am amazed how the street can plow ahead and evaluate the noise so quickly. I am guessing that the BREXIT had something to do with todays fast corrective action. Programs and mechanical plays learn much faster than humans. They take the “X” factor away, human fear. My fear factor got me out today.

      • CB says:

        The market is always wise. t’s not just about Trump. It’s about the Republican mandate, in case you’ haven’t noticed Gary. And how about the Supreme Court. It’s #uuuuge. It really is. Anyways, we are supposed to stop politicking here. EOS.

  13. CB says:

    Whale, whale, whale, so the market likes Trump 😉
    There was a reversal on the P&F chart today, so just a quick update if you follow them. http://screencast.com/t/RwOFzxhQjw
    If you are a ST trader, I’d disregard that pie-in-the-sky target posted on the chart and use something closer to 2200 short-term.. A drop below the recent low near the 200DMA would invalidate the breakout.. GL everyone.!

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Backtest of the Feb trendline in spx and Dow. Worth a short scalp.

  15. H D says:

    Tony, pretty good start for DSX :mrgreen: more to come IMO

  16. phil1247 says:


    bot back half gld sold at open at / gc 1270 level

  17. mjtplayer says:

    The bond market is totally falling apart, along with anything yield sensitive; REIT’s, utilities, consumer staples.

    The Dollar is ripping and gold looks to print a very ugly bearish reversal candle today.

    Amazing market moves, what Brexit did over a 2 week period, we just did in 13hrs. Plunge lower, reverse, gain back all of the losses and then some. Incredible.

    • scottycj1 says:

      The world has been chasing yield for years now……..it’s a bubble….the largest ever….
      money will be forced out of bonds…etc….where will it go ? Into Trump Stock Land…..its a new era……things are turning around…..stocks are safe again……..empty one balloon and fill another. This is better than fiction.

  18. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD +267, at this rate there will be a nice divergence if/when $SPX exceeds 2194.

    • stmro says:

      That’s the only thing left that gives me hope we might retest the futures low. This is not a broad-based rally. Its driven by Biotech bouncing off oversold conditions and financial because Trump is perceived to be softer on regulation.

      Otherwise, this has been a complete and utter victory for the bulls, and a pretty humbling experience.

  19. captbara says:

    Someone posted a Dax correctional wave count a few days ago that had a 10000 target. Good job whoever it was. Basically a very similar count to Nikkei.

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