Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +371

On Sunday afternoon the FBI announced they had dropped the entire Clinton-probe, after reviewing the new emails. SPX futures rallied when they started trading last night. Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.8%. US index futures soared overnight, and the SPX gapped up to 2112 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2085 on Friday. By noon the SPX had reached 2129, with small 2-3 point pullbacks along the way. After that the market went sideways within a 2 point range until about 2:30. At 3pm consumer credit was reported lower: $19.3B v $25.9B. Then after a dip to SPX 2124 by 3:30, the market rallied to close at 2132 the high of the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.40%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude gained 90 cents, Gold dropped $23, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow is Election day.

A week and a half ago the FBI announced they had reopened the Clinton-probe when the SPX was at 2141. After nearly 6 days of trading the market had dropped to SPX 2084 on Friday. Futures rallied overnight after the FBI announced they had closed the probe again. At Monday’s high, SPX 2132, the market had retraced all of last week’s SPX 2126-2085 decline. Short covering, hedges being removed, and some buying too? The two previous impulse uptrends started off in a similar fashion: a strong rally, with strong breadth, and very small pullbacks along the way. With Election day tomorrow, and election results likely that night or the next morning, short covering could turn into outright buying to keep this rally going. Thus far the market has gapped over SPX 2100, rallied through the 2116 pivot, then ran into resistance at the 2131 pivot. Certainly an interesting way to start the week. Short term support is at the 2131  and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high, then backed off a bit. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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181 Responses to Monday update

  1. cmucha68 says:

    It is done. Trump new president. Prepare to go long in a few days after this move down. Brexit 2.0

  2. mjtplayer says:

    Remember to vote – if you don’t vote, you can’t complain afterwards 🙂

    Also remember that since polls are busy, Trump and Johnson voters go to the polls today, Hillary voters tomorrow. Be sure to get to the polls nice and early tomorrow to show your support for Hillary 🙂

  3. scottycj1 says:


    Something like this ???

    Just hours after the biggest one-day surge in the S&P since March, Dennis Gartman has decided to follow the momentum, and after being bearish and short, he “covered in a great portion of our short derivatives position and we added to our long position.”

  5. torehund says:

    Biotech is doing heavy lifting on the indexes , its only the beginning😁

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Bond yields haven’t broken-out to the upside, that would require a sustained move in the 10yr above 1.90%. That said, bonds don’t look good, poor price action on the TLT over the past couple weeks.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    Those expecting a sharp sell off on Clinton victory will be disappointed. You might get small pb’s but short it at your peril. This move is parabolic! We see it over and over agin. Don’t fight it, embrace it.

  8. captbara says:

    Would not be surprised if today’s action is a B wave, with C down tomorrow.

  9. Trump lawyers already at it. Filling a motion in Nevada for keeping polls open late

  10. Ajay Singhi says:

    Short SPX CMP 2145, tgt 2100 and 2090

  11. mcgcapital says:

    Out of my longs from FTSE 6690 at 6875. Think it will squeeze a bit higher into the 6900-30 resistance zone but expecting a sell the news type event from there (and will be shorting with a stop above 6940 if seen).

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    if anyone hasn’t noticed I want Trump to win but not because I like him (because I don’t) and not because I hate Hillary (because I do) but because the American people have gotten the shaft, because our country has gotten absolutely absurdly PC, because our country has gotten socialistic, and bogged down with hand outs. I really do feel that the founders of this country would be horrified to see how we are slipping away from some of our constitutional foundations. I want Trump because I think even with his risks someone needs to shake the system and strike fear into these career politicians. The system has gotten tot he point where its hard to overturn it. There could have been a better messenger obviously but the messenger is here and yet Im afraid most Americans are focusing on things that don’t matter. Him being a sexist pig matters ZERO percent in running this country yet people will let that influence their decisions. How many immoral Presidents have their been in regard to their treatment of women. JFK is considered to be one of the great DEM presidents (thanks to being a skilled orator, was handsome, and assassinated) and you couldn’t find more of a PIG than him yet Trump is a travesty for women! Sadly and its his fault he just says what is in his head. Other politicians keep it to themselves but people like things to be idealistic and they want to believe what they hope to be true (like Hillary caring one iota about anyone except for herself and her legacy). When things are different four years from now you can keep believing she cares if it makes you feel better voting for her again. Her and a ton of other politicians need to go (both DEMS and REPUBS). Good luck everyone

  13. vivelaamo says:

    DOW has hit upper BB while RUT and SPX are no where near it. What you make of that?

  14. H D says:

    IMO 5 waves up some -D, 2(144) is a fib. Might just call it a year after that one.

    H D says:
    November 2, 2016 at 1:41 pm
    100 point hit, +D HWB now 2(144) it’s on the charts. JMHO

  15. skmcobra says:

    I’m confused by your charts now. On the Weekly chart what numbers specifically are labeling the Primary waves? Are they the black numbers or the blue roman numerals? Where exactly do you think we are now…what wave count?

  16. stmro says:

    Spike was based on reports of early voting in Florida showing huge latino turnout. Market is pricing in almost certainty of Hillary win.

  17. phil1247 says:


    boyze probably want this parked at /es 2148 at the close

    that way everyone is handcuffed

    on auto pilot now..

    good luck all .
    see you tomorrow………….

    • phil1247 says:

      one last note

      bada bing

      gold ext short target hit at 1273 /gc
      if we go thru target
      look for downside blowout in gold

  18. captbara says:

    Market spike on news of Reps taking the lead in NC and CO?

  19. fionamargaret says:$WTIC
    ..long oil….UWTI…..68 would be nice…

  20. After it snuck through 2130 late yesterday,this is no surprise.I still don’t see a second surprise (the first being Brexit).Brexit was old vs young…this is many different current demographics vs the demographics of the past.The US is not what it used to be.Sounds like Yogi Berra,in a way,but it’s true–especially in important states.

  21. phil1247 says:


    approaching 2135 target

    if we do not blast thru upwards
    …taking off 75% of SSO bot this am

    see previous chart

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