weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2126. After a bounce to SPX 2133 on Monday the market steadily declined to 2084 by Friday. There were three 10+ point rallies along the way, but they were all sold the same, or following, day. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.7%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the downtick: Chicago PMI, auto sales, construction spending, the ADP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus the trade balance and unemployment rate improved. Next week will be highlighted by the Election.

LONG TERM: uptrend

This market has been quite a challenge since the beginning of 2016. A gap down opening on the first trading day of the year took the market from SPX 2044-1812 by mid-January. Then after a 135 point rally the market retested that low at SPX 1810 by mid-February. After that the market rallied to all time new highs by July, after pausing for a two day Br-exit drop in late-June. Now after making an all time high in August at SPX 2194, the market has been effectively declining for three months, hitting it lowest level on Friday at 2084. After all these gyrations the market is barely up 2% on the year.

The action over the past two years has been more like a demand/supply driven commodity than an equity market. A grind up to all time highs by May 2015. Then a quick nearly 300 point decline, followed by another 300 point decline, with a rally in between to within 1% of all time highs. Then just when it looked like a bear market was underway, the market stormed to all time highs. It has been quite a roller coaster ride for investors. And a dream come true for day traders, who thrive on volatility.

spxweekly

There are lots of opinions as to where this market is in it overall long term trend. Just ask any two people and you will likely get two different opinions. Our opinion, however, remains unchanged. We are counting the February low as the end of the May 2015 to February 2016 bear market. While the market only dropped 17%. We found five previous instances, out of the last twenty-five bear markets, ending with less than a 20% decline. Until SPX 1992 is broken to the downside we see no reason to change this opinion.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

From the February SPX 1810 low we now see quite an odd configuration of waves. Not seen since the early stages of the 1984-1987 bull market. We now have a five wave uptrend to SPX 2111, followed by a three trend decline to SPX 1992. Then we have another five wave uptrend to SPX 2194, and again followed by a three trend decline. With the last of these three trends still underway.

spxdaily

The labeling on the daily chart displays an Intermediate wave i, followed by three Minor waves for Intermediate wave ii. Then a Minor wave 1, followed by three Minute waves for Minor wave 2. Currently this entire Minor 2 correction has retraced a bit more than 50%, but less than 61.8%, of Minor wave 1. The 61.8% relationship is at the OEW 2070 pivot. At the close on Friday the daily/weekly RSI are now at oversold levels usually reached near, or at the end, of downtrends. Check out the weekly RSI in the weekly chart. The weekly MACD, while pointing down, is not a concern until it drops below zero. As you can observe, downtrends can become quite nasty when that occurs. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Since this three trend decline began in August at SPX 2194, it has been a series of small overlapping waves. Nothing that has looked impulsive at all, suggesting it is only a correction. During the three wave Intermediate ii correction, the first decline did a 23.6% retracement and then second completed a 38.2% retracement of Intermediate i. During this three wave Minor 2 correction, the first decline did a 38.2% retracement and the second decline is currently within the 50% to 61.8% retracement range of Minor 1.

spxhourly

Should the OEW 2085 pivot range hold for a couple of days we could consider the downtrend over. If not, there are still two-three trading days to deal with the election, then the 2070 pivot is likely to hold. After those two pivots there is little support until the 2043 and 2019 pivots. Should those pivots get approached this alternate count may start coming back into play.

nyse

Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2100 and the 2116 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Trade what’s in front of you!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian market were mostly lower losing 1.6%.

European markets were all lower losing 4.1%.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 2.8%.

The DJ World index lost 2.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 9.5% on the week.

Gold is trying to uptrend and gained 2.2%.

The USD remains in an uptrend but lost 1.3% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: consumer credit at 3pm. Tuesday: the Election. Wednesday: wholesale inventories. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit. Friday: consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

314 Responses to weekend update

  1. kvilia says:

    Smells like a bull trap to me.

  2. My big reversal calls gets help from other sources. You might want to look a at this technician: http://www.rickackerman.com/ He has a promising system but his bias is so extreme that anytime he sees a big up move I pay attention. he sees a crash around every corner and when he fights that urge and follows his purely technical advice I listen. He is tearing out his hair over this.

    I was expecting a purge event all along so I must add two and two together on this. Still looking for a short window to add more calls. Hope to see late day weakness and early morning as well.

  3. vivelaamo says:

    When do the results start coming out?

  4. phil1247 says:

    short / es 2121 via sds

    lets see if the extension holds………..
    risky short with extension unbroken

  5. Gdx …24.16(20 d sma).Trying to crawl back above it.Silver didn’t break down.Still holding GDX position.Good luck all.

  6. Lee X says:

    So Tony what you’re saying is that after tomorrows election the next day which is Wednesday November 9 th 2016 all this babble on politics from the usual suspects here will no longer be tolerated and whom so ever starts back up with all this nonsense will lose the privilege to post here in the future?

  7. fotis2 says:

    Haven’t really been following the political commentary so all you guys over in the US of A voting for Trump tmrw?

  8. micky says:

    so far I see a possible 3 up, so will see if we can get past previous resistance in the 32 area

  9. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/09/how-fox-news-women-took-down-roger-ailes.html

    The FOX 20 year reign and most powerful political man taken down by woman. Amazing story. A replay of Trumps story?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/07/fox-news-electoral-scorecard-map-shifts-again-in-trumps-favor-as-clinton-holds-edge.html

    The unbiased view from FOX on trumps election chances. I always trust and believe everything they say. They didn’t quite say he is leading but according to them it’s a nail biter. Lets see how it plays out tomorrow. Does anyone believe FOX concise and clear reporting?

    If Trump does pull it out the market is toast. A clear electoral win early in race would give an even bigger push to the upside. Emotional drain from the markets as well as voters. Relief rally. My bet has been made and given opportunity will add to it.

  10. aahmichael says:

    Lots of people on this site frequently monitor one supposed guru’s market call versus another. In relation to the election, here are the HRC electoral vote calls from the three sites that I monitor:

    Five Thirty Eight = 296
    Princeton Election Consortium = 312
    University of Virginia Center for Politics = 322

    I’ll also note that throughout the ups and downs of the polls over the last 3 months, HRC’s worst numbers have always been higher than Trump’s best numbers. This has never changed.

    • Page says:

      Hillary wins landslide. Trump will not concede and will call elections rigged and wants recount, his supporters (KKK) will come out on street. So even Hillary will win, buy some VIX.

      • purplember says:

        Didn’t the “great one” ask illegals to vote ? isn’t that a rigged game ?

        • mjtplayer says:

          Time to rally the dead voters, they can make a difference

        • aahmichael says:

          No. He did no such thing. Right-wing whacks jobs edited a video in order to falsely claim that Obama told illegals to vote, when in fact, he said just the opposite.
          http://www.mediaite.com/tv/fox-business-deceptively-edits-obama-interview-to-falsely-claim-he-told-illegal-immigrants-to-vote/

          • purplember says:

            “…of the millenials, dreamers, undocumented citizens – and I call them citizens because they contribute to this country – are fearful of voting,” an interviewer told the president. “So if I vote, will immigration know where I live? Will they come for my family and deport us?”
            “Not true,” Obama reassured. “And the reason is first of all when you vote you are a citizen yourself. And there is not a situation where the voting rolls somehow are transferred over and people start investigating, et cetera. The sanctity of the vote is strictly confidential.”

            President “Divider” Obama

            • aahmichael says:

              You have once again edited Obama’s statement, just like the video did. It’s amazing to me that when facts don’t support your position, you alter the facts.

              • purplember says:

                lol you complain about media as records show DNC was in bed with CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC giving questions to Hillary. DNC gets to proof read articles. flat out corruption which is why americans are angry.

          • But they get the job done. Rally the base. Incite more anger and paranoia. Trump took his campaign from their record book. Isn’t FOX and Zerohedge a reputable news source? I for the life of me can’t understand the blind trust in sources that have been known to distort and lie. In fact the FOX exclusive “Immediate Indictment” was so blatant that they had to retract it one day later and one day after that the charges were dismissed.

            Same people keep gravitating to know fake sources. I guess people want cheerleaders in place of facts. Now we know just how difficult it is to make money using any supposed technical method. it’s not the method that’s flawed, but the people interpreting the charts. We see what we want to see.

          • purplember says:

            aahmichael if they are Illegals , why are they here? broke law don’t you agree ?

            • aahmichael says:

              Yeah, there are lots of folks in this country who have violated immigration laws…just like Trump’s very own immigrant wife violated immigration laws when she first came to this country. How ironic. Do you think he’ll deport her if he’s elected?

          • No FCC laws broken? I find it strange that the liberty of free speech means a mega media company can keep putting out blatant lies for their agenda and NOTHING gets corrected. That’s OUR TRUE democracy at work. we take the good with the bad and hopefully people are smart enough to understand the difference.

            Even more shocking to me is how LOGIC gets suspended and the same characters keep perpetrating lies and the same followers continue to follow even AFTER they get caught lying. Now we know that there is no such thing as modern man. We repeat our mistakes and use emotion and bias over logic and common sense. My wiring absolutely prevents me from doing this. I question everything and must get verification from reputable sources. But hey, I am old fashion that way.

            I mentioned right HERE, right after the Sunday FBI announcement that FOX would pull this. Funny that the only major news source is always FOX. I mean ALWAYS! If it came from FOX and other lunatic blogs get a hold of it automatically believe it’s a fake. I play the odds. their track record with outrageous facts are near perfect. Perfectly wrong. Use logic for a change folks and you can’t go wrong. The desperation by this organization is shocking.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      538 is most accurate ……………he said its in Hellary’s favor no doubt but flip a couple states and Trump can win. Its not implausible at all. Would I be surprised? Yes. Would it be a bigger shocker than Brexit…………….no not really.

      • aahmichael says:

        Johnny, the Center for Politics site has the best track record of all of them. By the way, that site and the Princeton site are both calling for a 50-50 tie in the Senate, which means the Dems would gain control.

    • CB says:

      here’s another site with some stats…looks like NH went from Trump to HRC this morning
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups_race_changes.html

  11. Peter Sliney says:

    A lot of pent up energy finally finding a direction. If Hillary wins we could go straight up for days. Most probable new highs. But I think long periods of sideways trading is going to be the new norm.

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Clinton was up by like 7 or 8 points when Comey came out 11 days ago. S&P was at 2040. So we are at 2130 now and the lead has narrowed more than half of that and where the Donald had absolutely no shot 11 days ago he now has a pathway to get there. Like many have said – the elections stuff matters little…………..market will do what it wants to do

  13. Just like GDX,S&P reacting off bbs.Now at 20d sma of 2130.Over that…upper bb at 2165-68.

  14. stmro says:

    This thing is going waaaay faster than i expected. I reshorted at 2120 and i’m already regretting that one.

  15. phil1247 says:

    /es

    2126 next target for ext long

    shorts ….now is the time to panic!

    • phil1247 says:

      now 2128 target is next ……………

      da boyze could run this up to 2149
      before the short from highs breaks

  16. Ajay Singhi says:

    SPX buy at 2087 hit the minimum tgt of 2120. CMP 2128. Call is closed.

    Thanks,

    Ajay

  17. mtu MTU says:

    [1140am] SPX update-
    What a rebound. See Charts for bull/bear tracking.
    Bull-Wave C (point 7) low is in, Wave D up or new upswing.
    Bear-Point 7 is an expanding EDT, current rebound is wave [d]-up.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/market-timing-update-11716.html

  18. blackjak100 says:

    If this is int 3 of major 3 of P5, this is how I would expect it to start out.

  19. rsp08 says:

    GM tony,
    Why green 2 at daily chart not posted after two hr of upmove?

  20. johnnymagicmoney says:

    …This is for Golly………market knew Brexit was going to happen right?? And the polls are closer here than they were Brexit. I bet my life that I have done more research on the data about this election than almost anyone on here. Clinton has the edge and that is clear. The electoral map favors here and so do demographic shifts and so does her ground game and support (not to mention money). I f-ing hate her but I realize this. A lot of things have to go right for him and many things have to go wrong with her campaign. But to say this is over is a complete lack of knowledge on your part Golly.

    This whole lection comes down to (in order of importance)

    1) Florida without question
    2) North Carolina
    3) Ohio
    4) Pennsylvania
    4) Nevada/New Hampshire/Colorado/2nd district of Maine

    5) Iowa/Michigan/Minnesota/Georgia

    First and foremost I will say that Trump has to win both Florida and North Carolina. Once he does this his path to victory is 50/50 and possibly more. For one the average of polls (many of them slanted) have Clinton ahead slightly in these two states. To have Trump be up 1% would imply at least a 2% shift come election day. Their generally is a 1 to 3% shift to either party from final poling numbers to election day. This is a fact. if it moves in Clintons direction it would be a huge victory for her. if it goes in Trumps direction it would be a nail biter but a slight shift in the polls in those two states would most likely imply it shifts in the other states. Frankly he should win North Carolina because the black vote there is down quite a bit. When 90% goes dem a 15% decline in voting is a huge difference Team Clinton have shouted out about their pre polling lead there but Obama was up about 270k votes before election day and they are hardly up their pre election day. Trump wins North Carolina.

    I also think he wins Ohio because Ohio is one of the states that has a disportinonate share of their population as white and non college degree white. He also has been up consistently for a while and turnout in the Cleveland area is down quite a bit as well (black vote). Their also is less Latinos there compared to Florida and North Carolina which Trump is leading.

    It really comes down to Florida. For Clinton the bad news is the black vote is down 10 to 15%. Also they have a very slight lead pre election day and again like North Carolina they should be up much more. That is why Obama and his wife and just about everyone else has been campaigning like mad there. They are worried. Republicans and whites vote better on elections day partly because the Dems line up busses for the blacks outside churches on Sundays and things like that. Blacks don’t vote well on election day. The good news for Clinton is the Hispanic vote is up big but that just might make up for the low black vote plus she gets a much higher percentage with blacks then Latinos so the jury is still out on if that Latino surge is enough. The other bad piece of News for Clinton in Florida in regard to the Latinos is Obama pissed a lot of Cubans off with failure to show up for the embargo UN vote and many Cubans feel that Obama has given away too much for nothing. Trump has seen a 20% surge in the Cuban vote in the last three weeks since Obamas no show vote. When most polling agencies do Cuban polling there include many Cubans who are not eligible to vote yet. The voting Cuban block is traditionally Republican and is breaking towards Trump. when you add this all together I think Florida is a huge huge tossup. If Trump doesn’t win here its Clinton hands down. If Trump wins here its indictive of other states and Trump has a huge chance of pulling it off.

    Once you Give Ohio, Carolina, Iowa, and Florida to trump there are many many combinations for a Trump victory.

    Other trump signs are a huge gap closing in PA, MI, MN, NH and some other traditionally blue states. This is a sign of a trend which should show up elsewhere.

    Lastly he is slightly ahead in Nevada and he is within striking distance in PA. One thing to note though is the SEPTA strike in Philly ended this morning right before the election (surprise surprise). This helps Clinton big time but she still has a low black vote turnout and white DEMS are breaking towards Trump. Clinton now has a big edge here because the SEPTS strike is over.

    All in all this could go either way but clearly favors Clinton. Remember Brexit people. No one expected it.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        another way of simplifying my diatribe is that it all comes down to turnout in Miami/ Orlando, Cleveland/Cincinnati, Charlotte/Raleigh, and Philadelphia/Pittsburgh

        the whole election for the leader of the free world comes down to cities you can count on your fingers. To me that is why the electoral map is messed up.

    • aahmichael says:

      The reason for the Brexit result was that the remain folks were told that their side was a lock, so lots of them didn’t bother to vote…not to mention the miserable weather that day also suppressed the vote. I think the opposite will occur in our election. I think the turnout will be the largest in history.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        you are partly right Mikey. This was true in London but the first two districts including Sutherland had massive difference over expectations. The futures were actually down most when the first two districts reported and it was like 3 or 4% of the vote but based upon how they thought the makeup would vote was utterly wrong so that had nothing to do with weather. It had to do with feelings amongst the voters whether or leave or stay.

    • Johnny, since you have done so much research, I’d like to hear your take on the following. I haven’t heard anyone comment on this. If I’m not mistaken, didn’t Donald Trump consistently out perform the polls (win or lose) in the primaries? If that holds true I would think, things being so close,Trump has an easier path than all the pundits think.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        Primaries and general election are different animals but in many states he did outperform.

        • You spend a long arduous convoluted reason to hold onto a belief that TRUMP will win. Do you not see this action as proof that his chances are very slim? Logic, I deal in logic. if I had to think of reasons to bet one way with a scenario that you laid out I would surely stop right there. Either bet the other way or stay away. To me it makes no sense to expect the market to behave based on Trump winning.

    • purplember says:

      Hillary has 99 pt lead with Dead voters

  21. Easy as pie! SPX 2220 is very reachable target within a 6 trading day range. Big Rally as I keep stating. Some cling to the absurd notion that the market got it wrong. It was a done deal before the FBI and is so again. Not very hard to grasp. No ide how it hold up after that watermark top.

    If a Trump supporter that believes in conspiracies bet for a crash because it will happen if he gets elected. Me, I play the odds and they are great for a continued rally. these events are rare so take advantage of it.

  22. phil1247 says:

    /CL

    raised stops on SCO

    looking to add more on bounce in /cl

    next target 42.99

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Back above the 30 week EMA. Last time spx closed below it was brexit week. What followed was a 6 week rally to 2195. I see the same happening again taking us nicely in to Christmas.

  24. phil1247 says:

    GOLD

    now in extension shorts ……ie

    NO more buying until the extension short breaks

    if 1268 fails

    look for all out collapse to 1211

  25. stmro says:

    Would expect 2120 to hold as resistance here at least until election results are in.

  26. phil1247 says:

    /es

    2115 key level

    ext long targets and short entry are here
    equals battleground

  27. mjtplayer says:

    So let me get this straight, Comey folds under political pressure and releases a statement saying they haven’t YET found any info that would change their July decision. Not only are markets ripping, but the media pundits and commentators are basically calling this election over now. Huh? This helps Hillary, but it will still be a very close race, she hasn’t one yet.

    BTW – the email scandal isn’t her real problem, it’s the Clinton Foundation that could take her down. The FBI says the Clinton probe has been a “top priority” for the FBI and nothing has been announced with regards to this just yet. Stay tuned, this isn’t over by a long-shot.

    • lcd00 says:

      Many people on this board have a hard time with reading comprehension and assimilating facts. Here’s Comey’s recent letter. Nowhere is the word “YET” mentioned:

      November 6, 2016
      Dear Messrs. Chairmen:
      I write to supplement my October 28, 2016 letter that notified you the FBI would be taking additional investigative steps with respect to former Secretary of State Clinton’s use of a personal email server. Since my letter, the FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation. During that process, we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State.
      Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.
      I am very grateful to the professionals at the FBI for doing an extraordinary amount of high-quality work in a short period of time.
      Sincerely yours,
      James B. Comey
      Director

      • mjtplayer says:

        I don’t see the any mention of the Clinton Foundation, which is her real problem. The email mess is a side story, unless they can find the thousands of emails she destroyed and wiped from the server.

        • lcd00 says:

          I agree that she has a looming problem there, and I’m not remotely a fan, but the markets have been moving based on Comey’s specific wording in his last two letters, and it’s preference for her to win.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            its a shame Trump is the one to carry the message. Clinton, the media, the justice department, the FED and Obama with his executive orders etc etc etc etc etc etc

            the political landscape has gotten third worldish. No cooperation amongst parties, greedy desire for power and willing to go to any lengths to further that power, lack of transparency, dishonesty and complete disregard for the constitution. The people definitely need to shake the powers but no one wants trump to do it. When oh when will we elect someone that will diverge from the status quo? Sad state of affairs

  28. vivelaamo says:

    Expect 2150 area to be tested this week.

  29. phil1247 says:

    GOLD

    warned last week that /gc was a SALE at 1309 ..not a buy

    starting initial buy of GLD here at 1286 /gc
    fully aware that the cycle still has two weeks to fall

    and could still reach 1216 target

    • phil1247 says:

      again we see the typical action….

      extension long failed…(.some one said it didnt… /kvilia?)

      big bounce that fails…..it did
      decline continues

      so cautious buying ….
      knowing the bottom could fall out

  30. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Btw follow 538 polling. Guy has guessed 99 of last 100 states last two elections. He predicts a Clinton win but has Trump winning Florida Ohio Iowa and North Caroliina amongst others. He says Hillary is one or two states away from losing. Also what’s of note is so goes Iowa so goes the country a lot of the time. Nate Silver claims Selzer from the Demoine Register is the best pollster in the country. She has Trump winning by 7 there. One thing a lot of pollster will say (good ones) is that when you have a big divergence in one state you tend to have big divergences in others (meaning they follow together). Iowa could very well be outlier but it hasn’t in the past. The rest of the main stream polls has Iowa as a tossup. If Donald wins Florida and Carolina this will be a nail biter. People are underestimAting his chances. To bring a poker analogy. It’s like the flop comes out and Clinton has a set or flops a straight but Trump has a flush draw. Trump still has nine cards he can win with but he’s behind. Anyone who thinks this will be a landslide don’t understand what’s going on. He could lose the national and win the electorate.

    • Agree.Florida,N.C. huge.Ohio must stay Trump.Either Penn OR my homestate Michigan must turn on its head.For good measure,Nevada,Colorado,Arizona.The odds of 269-269 not that impossible.Wouldn’t stocks love THAT? (Not).Silver continues to hold in there.S&P more an oversold bounce(everyone is assuming it’s pro Hillary rally/prediction).One more day of it tomorrow?No more politics from me.Later.

  31. jobjas says:

    ES downtrend target remains 2070

  32. vivelaamo says:

    What a bounce!! 😍

  33. stmro says:

    Germany bounced off that magic 10200 number again for the 4th time in 3 months. Its either a huge topping formation or a pause before the next phase of the bull market. In fact, if you look across equities, currencies, fixed income and PM, it’s really quite astonishing the number of charts that look delicately balanced between breakdown and continuation.

    The outcome of this election might be a catalyst to nudge us in one direction or another. If Trump wins, i’d wager it kicks off a multi-year bear market.

  34. stmro says:

    Odd behaviour so far. Big gap up and then no follow through at all. Maybe a lot of resistance at 2110. Will be interesting to see if they get through at the Europe open.

  35. jobjas says:

    Markets do not follow news ; News follows market.(discounting mechanism)
    Markets already started the slide down. How does news fit in ?
    Scenario 1 : Trump wins – market falls (anti-establishment )
    Scenario 2 : HRC wins ,civil unrest , market falls.
    Politically satisfies both the warring camps here.
    Meanwhile get ready for a bounce (in a day or two) and some serious volatility

  36. Stock future up over 1.3 percent ! Nah, they must know that Hillary has no chance of winning.
    FOX news JUST came out with an article on Clinton Foundation. Who would have guessed (besides me)? Now this is a funny one. I mean hilarious. They claim the Clintons had the National Inquirer quash an article about their foundation.

    http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/11/06/clinton-foundation-donor-killed-unfavorable-bill-clinton-tabloid-stories

    The ORIGINAL source was “the daily caller”. Sleaze is too nice a word to describe this blog. read it and its prior reporting for yourself. Only FOX NEWS would run with it. Run they are…..

    How did their scoop on an imminent indictment go? 99.999 percent of Clinton hate Mongers can forgive FOX for its “minor” transgressions but not Hillary.

    • fionamargaret says:

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      gary l, James Corbett stated: We can be assured that these threats of potential nuclear world war by Clinton are not idle threats Killary is a liar, a war monger, war criminal, it is no hyperbole to say that the election of Killary Clinton as president of the United States would be one of the greatest tragedies for the United States, and perhaps the world. youtube.com

  37. Just as I predicted FOX posts Clinton Foundation articles. Are they predictable or what?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/06/clinton-aide-targets-chelsea-in-email-as-foundation-audit-shows-issues.html
    http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/11/06/clinton-foundation-donor-killed-unfavorable-bill-clinton-tabloid-stories

    Now the really hilarious article talks about killing unfavorable tabloid article. The tabloid was National Enquirer a highly respected news source that Clinton and team would surely worry about.

    Did I not say they would be doing this? Is any of the other “reputable” newspapers doing this?

    If “I” can predict their behavior why are so many people duped by their obvious lies. What happened to their scoop on Benghazi, Obama being an illegal, and NOW the 2 day old news that said CLINTON WILL BE INDICTED IMMINENTLY!!!!!!

    I guess they ALWAYS get a pass simply because the people that believe this garbage can’t grasp the fact that they are lying to you and have for a very long time. I urge everyone that remotely listens to FOX to check their record. On deaf ears but I had to give it the old college try.

    BIG RALLY for 5 straight days folks! Place your bets! I am.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      You want to hate Trump I get it but as soon as you fail to recognize the immorality and criminal truths regArding Hillary you invalidate any intelligent judgement you could possibly have regarding her. And to claim that Fox is so much worse than say MSNBC or even CNN shows your lack of sound judgement as well. This of course correlates with your judgement about the economy so it makes sense.

      • FOX produces National Inquirer smear and pretends its news. When caught they just apologize. If you can justify that they were the ONLY major news that declared imminent indictment over EMAIL 2 days before Hillary was exonerated I would be happy to listen. Every time I bring up TRUMP people counter with Hillary. That doesn’t get YOU off the hook. Is TRUMP qualified? is he even a decent man? Is his long history one of deceit, groping, stealing, and immoral. Simple question. if you can pretend he is qualified I can pretend I am Superman. Neither is grounded in reality. Defend HIM. Lets hear it.

        I personally do not like Hillary and there are valid reasons not to vote for her. I stated this many times. In no way is that an excuse to vote for someone else. To pretend Hillary is dangerous when her whole career was in politics is silly. BENGHAZI? BLACK ILLEGAL MUSLIM. These are viewed by many as proof but all has been debunked over and over again. Seems people are FIXATED and love to place blame for their problems. Not a bright bunch here if you can get by the fact that the whole congress was REPUBLICAN and yet found NOTHING on Hillary and pretend to this day Obama is a Muslim of questionable legal status. See what you want but that doesn’t change reality one bit. It does make many conclude that reality is altered by the great powers that be. Always conspiracies.

        As for the election it IS a done deal. If YOU want to pretend he can get enough electoral votes I guess you will conclude at the end of the race that it was stolen from him. went from 70 percent to 88 percent chance. Very mart people have crunched the numbers. EVEN FOX’s own numbers show he has a slim chance. The same organization that kept the lies on Obama for years. You can sweep these allegations away but they are FACTS.
        Bill O’Riley stated during the Obama election that “I will not tell anyone how to vote but I am not voting for Obama”. That’s the news organization that you have. pretend they are legit but facts get in your way. They fed you stories and you devour them.

        The RACE is OVER. Market knows this but obviously YOU don’t. BIG rally for rest of week.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          This is for Golly………market knew Brexit was going to happen right?? And the polls are closer here than they were Brexit. I bet my life that I have done more research on the data about this election than almost anyone on here. Clinton has the edge and that is clear. The electoral map favors here and so do demographic shifts and so does her ground game and support (not to mention money). I f-ing hate her but I realize this. A lot of things have to go right for him and many things have to go wrong with her campaign. But to say this is over is a complete lack of knowledge on your part Golly.

          This whole lection comes down to (in order of importance)

          1) Florida without question
          2) North Carolina
          3) Ohio
          4) Pennsylvania
          4) Nevada/New Hampshire/Colorado/2nd district of Maine

          5) Iowa/Michigan/Minnesota/Georgia

          First and foremost I will say that Trump has to win both Florida and North Carolina. Once he does this his path to victory is 50/50 and possibly more. For one the average of polls (many of them slanted) have Clinton ahead slightly in these two states. To have Trump be up 1% would imply at least a 2% shift come election day. Their generally is a 1 to 3% shift to either party from final poling numbers to election day. This is a fact. if it moves in Clintons direction it would be a huge victory for her. if it goes in Trumps direction it would be a nail biter but a slight shift in the polls in those two states would most likely imply it shifts in the other states. Frankly he should win North Carolina because the black vote there is down quite a bit. When 90% goes dem a 15% decline in voting is a huge difference Team Clinton have shouted out about their pre polling lead there but Obama was up about 270k votes before election day and they are hardly up their pre election day. Trump wins North Carolina.

          I also think he wins Ohio because Ohio is one of the states that has a disportinonate share of their population as white and non college degree white. He also has been up consistently for a while and turnout in the Cleveland area is down quite a bit as well (black vote). Their also is less Latinos there compared to Florida and North Carolina which Trump is leading.

          It really comes down to Florida. For Clinton the bad news is the black vote is down 10 to 15%. Also they have a very slight lead pre election day and again like North Carolina they should be up much more. That is why Obama and his wife and just about everyone else has been campaigning like mad there. They are worried. Republicans and whites vote better on elections day partly because the Dems line up busses for the blacks outside churches on Sundays and things like that. Blacks don’t vote well on election day. The good news for Clinton is the Hispanic vote is up big but that just might make up for the low black vote plus she gets a much higher percentage with blacks then Latinos so the jury is still out on if that Latino surge is enough. The other bad piece of News for Clinton in Florida in regard to the Latinos is Obama pissed a lot of Cubans off with failure to show up for the embargo UN vote and many Cubans feel that Obama has given away too much for nothing. Trump has seen a 20% surge in the Cuban vote in the last three weeks since Obamas no show vote. When most polling agencies do Cuban polling there include many Cubans who are not eligible to vote yet. The voting Cuban block is traditionally Republican and is breaking towards Trump. when you add this all together I think Florida is a huge huge tossup. If Trump doesn’t win here its Clinton hands down. If Trump wins here its indictive of other states and Trump has a huge chance of pulling it off.

          Once you Give Ohio, Carolina, Iowa, and Florida to trump there are many many combinations for a Trump victory.

          Other trump signs are a huge gap closing in PA, MI, MN, NH and some other traditionally blue states. This is a sign of a trend which should show up elsewhere.

          Lastly he is slightly ahead in Nevada and he is within striking distance in PA. One thing to note though is the SEPTA strike in Philly ended this morning right before the election (surprise surprise). This helps Clinton big time but she still has a low black vote turnout and white DEMS are breaking towards Trump. Clinton now has a big edge here because the SEPTS strike is over.

          All in all this could go either way but clearly favors Clinton. Remember Brexit people. No one expected it.

  38. opader says:

    Thank you Tony … my thoughts: Market Is Signalling A Landslide Win For Dems http://balancetrading.org

  39. locanbbs says:

    The Asian markets are opening now ….

  40. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: After “double bottom” (a – b – c) markets break out.
    ndx (futures hourly) –

  41. locanbbs says:

    Market impulsing?

    • blackjak100 says:

      ES made a LL on Fri…it may be impulsing but the gap should get filled during a 2nd/b wave.

    • torehund says:

      Putting a w-2 bottom under Hillary, well that smells as bad as w-2 bottoms normally do🙂
      But if markets enters the fat part of P-3, well scoop in🙂🙂

      • cyanus66 says:

        ‘Fat part of P-III’ is a good description of the bull-in-china-shop action about to unfold.

        Would prefer to see daily +ve divergences, like back in the Feb 2016 W-bottom, with a lower low at 2064ish by mid-Nov, before major 3 hopefully makes everyone on this blog rich beyond expectations… 🙂

      • locanbbs says:

        Still, as they say in Germany, “Money doesn’t stink!”

  42. Market question…how far does gold fall tomorrow?If it can stay fairly well contained…..but I have I have my doubts.And GDX I’m afraid will get obliterated.I mentioned 10-15%,up or down.Very likely tomorrow.

  43. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Retest or Reversal (11/4/16 close) with 11/6/16 update
    [Nov 6 update – 650pm]
    The FBI news pushed stock futures sharply higher. The sharp upswing is now consistent with wave (c)-up of [iv]-up in Chart 3 above. Chart 4 below illustrates with the real-time ES price action. (The bullish alternative counts Friday’s closing low as the green wave [v]-down or point 7 in Chart 2 above.)
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/mtu-weekend-ed-retest-or-reversal-11416.html

  44. locanbbs says:

    Looks like a Clinton landslide. (News: No danger for Clinton from e-mail investigations.Futures gap up at futures open.)

  45. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

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