Friday update

SHORT TERM: rally fades, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported higher: 161K v 156K, the unemployment rate was lower: 4.9% v 5.0%, and the trade deficit declined: -$36.4B v -$40.7B. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2089 close, and immediately started to rally. After hitting SPX 2092 in the opening minutes, it pulled back to 2085 by 10am, and then moved even higher. Just past noon the SPX hit 2099, then began to pullback. The pullback lasted all afternoon, as the SPX returned to 2085 again at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost 50 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 57.3% v 58.0%, and the Q4 GDP estimate was raised to 3.1% v 2.1%.

The market opened lower today, hit the downtrend low at SPX 2084, and then started to rally. The rally carried the SPX to just under 2100m at 2099. Then the market nearly retraced today’s entire advance. It was 1pm last Friday that the FBI indirectly announced they were looking into the Clinton-probe again. At the time of the announcement the SPX was trading at 2141, and had been in a 2115-2195 trading range for nearly three months. After that report the market dropped from SPX 2141-2084 this morning. This appears to be mostly an election related decline. The election is Tuesday. Will review the technicals in detail in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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62 Responses to Friday update

  1. micky says:

    As I mentioned when spx lost 2092 the next area of support my gadget indicates is the 2060-2070 area, and after checking it again I think the area near 2070 should provide a st cheap long. I don’t normally use fibs but see its also the 61% retrace, the weekly Bollinger band bottom and also quite oversold . All this may produce at least a good bounce.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    VIX up 9 days in a row: never happened before
    $SPX down 9 days in a row first time since 1980…also an election year.

    • Now that I think about it…In 1980,Carter had a good lead with a week to go,but Reagan came back to win easily.
      Anyways,what to do?There’s no GUARANTEE of S&P stopping at 2070.At times like this,only a stairstep analysis for stocks seems to come out.If 2120 holds,then down to 2100,then 2070…if that doesn’t hold,then its 2060,then 2020 etc.It’s not even known if 1992 will hold.Uncharted territory makes for people holding on all the way down the stairs.I said a week ago at least,the S&P had been under the 50 d for quite a while–no reason to be in until it got back above it.BBs say a rally coming probably Turnaround Tuesday.Lots of potential unrest and unease out in the country…gold should benefit,but no sure thing either.GdX above 26 would be a plus.Good luck all–we may need it this week.

  3. fionamargaret says:

    • fionamargaret says:

      I made a playlist for you with the election in mind….start at number 1 Kid Rock…xxx

      • fionamargaret says: prefers its own mix which includes some of the justified videos along with the election ones…overruled by my computer…

  4. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Spx – Downtrend broken? – Nope, but some constructive signs (charts hourly futures):
    – Downtrend channel slope milder (now “B” instead of “A”) and the pivot (2070/2085 .- “C”) has held up so far –

    ,- EWO (“Awesome Oscillator” – see black circle lower right corner) now–barely–in positive territory


    Did anyone know of this case pending? December 16th. Rape of 13 year old. TRUMP now has 2 cases this year he has court appearances for. One for TRUMP University and this. Seems there are TWO witnesses in the rape case. The WHY reporters stayed away from this allegation of rape is explained in article.

    Now you America must choose. A criminal charge of mishandling confidential emails and possibly pay-for-play donations to Clinton Foundation. Or a criminal charge of cheating the University students with misleading promises and a child rapist.

    I am sure we are all anxious to vote. Hollywood has nothing on these politicians. Perhaps their next job will be script writers.

    • tommyboys says:

      Voting strictly party platforms not people. Neither of these people belong in office so you gotta vote policies. The left won’t talk policies because raising taxes, throw good money after bad in healthcare and ISIS are not popular topics. Smearing candidate is best they can muster.

      Reduced taxes incentifies hard work, creativity and productivity netting far greater tax receipts to the coffers. Repealing a disasterous socialized healthcare system put on place by an “executive order” is a must on the road back to Capitalism. Those longing for a Socialist Republic oughta review the history of these systems and how they’ve worked out. Forget about personality flaws. Look at the issues against Capitalism. Hard work, paying your way and your share, contribution to society, theses are the attributes of the party you want in office not the inverse. Don’t get distracted with fluff and nonsense.

      • tommyboys says:

        What’s disturbing is while we purchase Saudi oil and provide them protection as an ally, they fly planes into our buildings, support ISIS and provide generous funding to The Clinton Foundation. We need this un-clustered asap.

        • fbender7 says:

          Good point! Not to mention that Huma Mahmood Abedin – Hillary’s top political staffer – is a Saudi Agent. Also, those planes flying into our buildings are not what they appeared to be. Commercial airplanes, made of aluminum – a very lightweight material, and thus not really very strong – would have crumpled upon contact with the concrete and steel of theTwin Towers and the thick concrete wall at the Pentagon. At the twin towers, debris – including pieces of aluminum, body parts, and luggage would have rained down on the street below. None of that happened. Instead, we see an “airplane” neatly slicing through the concrete and steel building and the nose of the “airplane” emerging through the other side of the building completely unscathed! Impossible! It completely defies the laws of physics. The technology does exist to create these large and elaborate holograms however. Also, none of the so-called Saudi terrorists was capable of flying even a single passenger, single engine Cessna by themselves, let alone a commercial airliner. Sorry folks – it was an inside job.

          • zvyezda says:

            There is a video on youtube that shows the second plane, i.e. holographic projection, passing in front of the derrick part of a crane but behind the steel cable and work hook hanging from the derrick, i.e. the projected image broke up against that background. I suspect a combo of projected holographic images and prerecorded CGI were used. The all white painted jumbo jet that projected the images can be seen banking off into the distance behind the other tower at the end of the video. There were reports of a similar ‘ghost plane’ that flew over the Pentagon that day. For a different manner of application of images for deception, i.e. bouncing holograms off the ionosphere or from satellites for psy-ops, look for Project Bluebeam. For the ghost plane method look for videos of John Lear, former CIA pilot son of the Lear Jet designer.

            It was accomplished by one non-Saudi foreign nation with the assistance of the U.S. government. For the WTC & foreign involvement look for videos with the former Director of Studies of the U.S. Army War College, Dr. Alan Sabrosky. For the Pentagon and domestic connivance look for videos with retired Major General Albert Stubblebine former head of U.S. Army Strategic Intelligence, world wide.

            • fotis2 says:

              Conspiracy theories about the terrorist attack on 9/11 are a dime a dozen furthermore they have all been investigated by the NIST,Popular Mechanics and the Civil Engineering Society and been proven wrong.

            • joecthetruthteller says:

              zvyeda, great post!

      • i agree with that point of view.

    • jeffbalin says:

      Trump university is the same as the other seminar scumbags, high tuition, then when you do the seminar you have to take advanced courses for even more money to learn what you thought you were going to learn in the 1st course and on and on. Optionetics, Rich Dad seminars, tons of real estate guru seminars. Trump just sold his name to some scumbag seminar company to use to give them some credibility.

    • Gary Smith says:

      It was never covered because everybody knew she had no proof and no case. Just another person trying to get money for nothing.

      Stay away from the Huffington Post. Terrible journalism every day.

    • purplember says:

      Gary do you even care of Hillary’s corruption or do you find it acceptable b/c she’s democrat? she’s selling america out for her gain.

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Department of Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul Has Just Made The DAMNING Announcement

      The Department of Homeland Security just went on the air with Fox News and told the American People that Hillary Clinton is guilty of treason.

    • The alleged rape victim dropped her suit on Nov. 2.

  6. One unnamed analyst’s opinion from
    “Gold closed just above 1300 and the 50 MA for a second day in a row, as shown on the following daily chart. The RSI and MACD downtrends have now been broken to the upside.

    The next major resistance level is around 1400. I’d watch to see if the PMO indicator crosses and holds back above zero to see whether such a rally, or continued rally beyond that level, has legs.

    In fact, there is thin volume above 1400, as depicted by the pink Volume Profile along the right-hand side of the weekly chartbelow, so you could see a price surge above 1400 to, potentially,1500, which is the next major resistance level. Watch for a Golden Cross of the 50 MA back above the 200 MA on this timeframe to confirm such a surge.”

    Have a good weekend all.

  7. captbara says:

    Looks like USD has decided to impulse lower. 5 may be in or it could be subdividing lower. I suspect it’ll go for 96, so in that case I’m expecting some more scandalous Clinton news.

    • CB says:

      Since the market likes “certainty” vs. ‘uncertainty,” whoever wins will provide that “certainty.” Let’s also remember that Congressional elections are quite important..Also, n either Trump nor Clinton will have absolute power…(or should I say: neither Pence nor Kaine, perhaps =)….who knows..
      Gl everyone

  8. Hi,Thanks Tony

    DOW theoric target of DT at 17825 showed on the daily chart

    Trendlines drawed at close prices on the weekly chart

    Monthly chart continues displaying divergence on histogram

    Oil is at support but i think it can reach ~ 41,5

  9. Dex T says:


    RE the election-

    Trump can win because a significant portion of the Democratic party constituents are completely unreliable. So while they may not like him personally they won’t show up to the polls to cast their vote. This is true of the minority vote and the youth voters.

    Also the “minority” vote is not uniform. Black turnout is down from Obama’s levels in early voting while the Hispanic Cubans in Florida have traditionally voted Republican.

    Trump’s always been the underdog but viable pathways through the electoral college exist. It will be tight but Trump can do it.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Dex. That makes a lot more sense.

    • aahmichael says:

      In regards to the Latino vote in Florida, it seems that you haven’t been paying attention to the massive influx of Puerto Ricans in the last decade, and Puerto Ricans in Florida have always voted Democratic in Presidential elections. 10 years ago, the Florida Latino community was bipartisan, with more registered Republicans than Democrats, and more registered Democrats than unaffiliated. Things have changed in a big way in the last 10 years, though. Puerto Ricans now make up more than 25% of the Florida Latino community. While the number of registered Republicans has remained unchanged, the number of registered Democrats and unaffiliated has soared. There are now about 800k registered Democrats, 680k unaffiliated, and 500k Republicans. If this year’s election comes down to Florida, and Florida comes down to the Latino vote, then these new Puerto Ricans will be the difference in the election, and they’re voting for the Democrat.

      • vivelaamo says:

        You getting sucked in to the politics talk AA? I have to admit as a non American i find the political side of things fascinating from this blog. Thanks guys.

      • Dex T says:

        I’m aware of them but it doesn’t necessarily change the overall picture just yet. They are still a minority in Florida.

        Trump still has the edge and he’s maintaining it in the early voting. Maybe things will change Tuesday – we will see

  10. aahmichael says:

    The comments section of this blog is always full of emotions, whether it’s about movement in the markets, or now about the election. Emotions will kill you in the market, and they’re certainly not good for your health when it comes to politics either. So, for those of you who, like me, just deal with the cold hard truth of numbers, I would suggest you refer to highly regarded statistical analysis political websites like fivethirtyeight, University of Virginia Center for Politics, and Princeton Election Consortium.

    • CB says:

      Yes, they guy @538 has lots of interesting insights and numbers. And thanks for the other links.
      Agree with you, Mike – bias is cheap and insights are precious.

    • zvyezda says:

      Michael, whomever nominally wins, the political turmoil affecting the market will NOT end on Tuesday but instead will intensify. I suggest you all number crunch various scenarios, minimum a half dozen, if you are prudent.

      • phil1247 says:



        many cycles turn the week AFTER the election

      • tommyboys says:

        This is what I fear. Market tankage no matter WHO wins but much worse with a Trump win – even though he’ll get my vote. Only good news is that no man is an island and regardless of winner any decisions will have to be run through Congress – less “executive orders”, which “shoukd” temper sentiment at least a bit.

        Worst of all worlds is a split decision where Cogress has to pick a Prez in January. Market will distain this and thus my biggest fear.

      • aahmichael says:

        I have only considered 4 possible outcomes of significance. In order of probability, they are:
        1. HRC wins by a nose. Republicans retain Senate and House. Trump refuses to concede. Claims election was stolen. Encourages his base to take to the streets in armed revolt. Result = market tanks
        2. HRC wins by a nose. Democrats take Senate. Republicans retain House. Trump refuses to concede. Claims election was stolen. Encourages his base to take to the streets in armed revolt. Result = market tanks
        3. Trump wins. Republicans retain Senate and House. Result = market tanks
        4. HRC wins in landslide. Democrats take Senate. Republicans retain House. Trump concedes. Result = market rallies strongly

        I continue to hold my extremely aggressive maxed out short position from 8/15 at 2192. The market has done nothing since I entered the position to warrant any change in position. Since I think outcome #4 is the least likely, then I will continue with the status quo through the election and beyond.

  11. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    I saw a funny campaign sign last weekend. (the politician’s name is apparently:Schmuck)
    The sign said: Vote for Schmuck, That’s right, SCHMUCK … =) Have a great weekend everyone!

  12. 123 abc says:

    Tony et OEW team, a couple of questions in regards to the Shanghai Composite count, perhaps you could review over the weekend if you have a moment…

    Q1: Twice on differing degrees, there appears to be wave-4 overlapping with wave-1.
    2016/09/23 — Intermediate-iv overlaps with Intermediate-i
    2016/08/01 — Minor-4 overlaps with Minor-1

    Q2: Intermediate-v from 2016/09/23 to 2016/04/13 only consists of two Minor waves. In an impulse, shouldn’t waves 1, 3 and 5 all consist of five legs?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Did not place any labels where you suggest.
      You may read the chart however you wish.
      The labels I did place is how I have counted it.

      • 123 abc says:

        Tony, are you able to say where you placed the granular labels? Perhaps just update your daily chart like my attempt?

        • tony caldaro says:

          not following it that closely to label internal waves

          • 123 abc says:

            Okay, thank you Tony, much appreciated. Just two more general OEW questions if I may, apologies for the pedantic nature…

            Q1: Does OEW permit wave-4 to momentarily overlap wave-1, provided wave-4 closes above wave-1 ?

            Q2: Under OEW, can the fifth and final wave of an impulse just consist of three waves? i.e an Ending Diagonal with a-b-c waves instead of a-b-c-d-e waves?

            • locanbbs says:

              IMHO the answer to Q1 is that the close is decisive, proved again and again.

            • 123 abc says:

              Laying in bed last night, it occurred to me that the count I’ve suggested with wave-4 overlapping wave-1 is actually possible if we consider both uptrend as Leading Diagonals.

  13. fotis2 says:

    Much obliged sir GL with the elections next week and whoever wins hopefully has the country and its citizens as no.1 priority.

  14. Dex T says:


    Any chance you can include a “VOTE TRUMP” in the weekend update??

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – you mention a trading range from 2,115 – 2,195 for months. When a sideways market breaks, the minimum measured move should be at least the size of the prior range, or 80pts.

    The range has broken to the downside, so 80pts from 2,115 would target 2,035

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