Thursday update

SHORT TERM: downtrend continues, DOW -29

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 265K v 258K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2098, bounced up to 2103 in the opening minutes, and then started to drift lower. At 10am factory orders were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.2%, and ISM services were reported lower: 54.8 v 57.1. The decline continued throughout the day with not much more than a four point bounce along the way. Then at 3:30 the SPX hit 2085 before bouncing into a 2089 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls and the trade deficit at 8:30.

The market opened unchanged today, bounced to SPX 2103, then declined throughout the day. At today’s SPX 2085 low the market had reached the 2085 pivot. The next support pivot is at 2070, which also represents a 61.8% retracement of the June-August uptrend. The daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been since early January. The hourly RSI is now displaying another positive divergence. These divergences, however, have only led to 10+ point bounces since last week. Clearly the path of least resistance has been to the downside since early last week. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

173 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Atlanta GDP forecast for the quarter popped to 3.1%. Economy get stronger despite the political circus.

  2. kingfrogcash says:

    $1.2 billion to sell market on close.

  3. Page says:

    Great site for politics junkies:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/

  4. wildmarkets says:

    This is the Year for the Chicago. Cubs and Hillary (First Women President Born in Chicago).

    Go 2016!!!

  5. captbara says:

    5 waves up today. Thank you FBI, Baphomet, and Donald Duck.

  6. “The S&P 500 has only fallen for 7 straight days three times in the last 20 years.  And, each time it was during a financial crisis.”
    Read that on Market Oracle.Anyone agree we’re in…or going to be in a financial crisis soon?

  7. vivelaamo says:

    Trump is NOT going to win. What’s wrong with you People?

  8. torehund says:

    Usd breaking out vs Turkish Lira, vicious hyperinflation go hand in hand with a totalitarian development, social media is shut down today. The asymptotic part of the currency decline is all that remains.

  9. Ajay Singhi says:

    Alert: There will be one big down day next week. If it doesn’t happen by Tuesday, then expect a Trump win and a sell off on Wednesday.

    Time to be cautious.

    • vivelaamo says:

      The waves will decide the election?

      • Ajay Singhi says:

        Waves indicated Brexit was going to happen against all odds and now waves are indicating Trump win is a strong possibility.

        Only question is do we get one more high to finish the bear market rally or is it already over? Both the timing and the price point of the low this week were perfect, indicating that one more high should come even if Trump wins.

        I think I will have the answer Tuesday morning.

      • Ajay Singhi says:

        No need to wait till Tuesday. Trump is going to win..

  10. Millan Tomic says:

    This seems quite reasonable, barring some extreme vol around elections:
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/D2KpSVaR-SPX-Medium-term-Nov-2016/

  11. http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/03/media/baseless-fox-news-indictment-report/

    FOX NEWS once again put out false and misleading information to influence the election? Nah. But so many listen and want to believe, even the redneck FBI agents that want Clinton in jail.

    Like my previous news piece this will get censored. No matter any one with half a brain will see this article pop up. I do love talking to myself.

    The rally this time looks to be holding. I expect small movement on Monday unless we get “event” changing news over weekend.

  12. Moment of truth at 2102 coming…the suspense is…..zzzzzzz

  13. captbara says:

    Who else is reading about these strange Podesta emails about “food”? Very disturbing, but not exactly surprising if you’re familiar with the elite’s obsession with occult practices.

  14. phil1247 says:

    fiona

    if we dont crash thru the lows on cl
    i am taking profits on sco

  15. blackjak100 says:

    Surprising to see pretzel has the most probable target of sub 1940. That would fit nicely with a large P5 ED for wave 2. His counts/targets are worthy of respect so it was interesting to see.

  16. phil1247 says:

    /cl

    next target 43.87

    glad i bailed out of sco yesterday

    fiona
    its very risky to trade against the trend

  17. xcaroline1 says:

    SKEW surged to 141.18, getting near pre-Brexit levels. http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx

  18. CB says:

    SPY filled the open gap from July 8 yesterday. Today IWM did the same.
    There is one more open gap (from June 29) left….quite a bit lower, though. (110-111ish area (IWM)…likely, the next phase of the decline, later this month, will take care of that one…GL everyone.

    • xcaroline1 says:

      Industrial metals like copper http://invst.ly/2p2hm and nickel http://invst.ly/2p2ge have bullish daily charts; copper looks like it’s breaking out of a triangle. Tin! The Transports are a breakout away of starting a new weekly uptrend.
      http://invst.ly/2p2hvhttp://invst.ly/2p2n6. Copper bottoming en early cyclicals ike transports on the verge of a breakout could support the idea that a new bull market is coming. It supports the idea that the QE/interest rate driven market is replaced by an economic recovery (and/or fiscal stimulus) driven market. Anyway, part of the market seems to support that narrative.
      Having said that, I am also still on a sell signal. But the SPX is a few points away from support of the 200 MA, and yes, the daily chart is deeply oversold, and there is a positive divergence with the september low. If this is just a correction of the recent june-september uptrend I am with Tony that 2070 might be a target; if this is the start of a larger degree correction the oversold conditions are not tradable, at least not for more than a minor bounce.
      Many correlations have broken down and markets are diverging on many levels, I find this bearish. Again, having said this: in Amsterdam( the Netherlands) where I live the index AEX http://invst.ly/2p2n6 is just 1 percent away from major support.
      Now, by the way, 100 % in cash.

  19. Ajay Singhi says:

    Can someone tell me when the election results will come out?

    Thanks,

    Ajay

  20. jobjas says:

    RUT may have bottomed

  21. zvyezda says:

    Lt. General Michael Flynn, retired Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency:

  22. locanbbs says:

    Shakeout on the N225? Index (temporarily?) now under 17000.

  23. stmro says:

    2085 is close enough i’d say. Should get more than a 10pt bouce here. Maybe 2120 to start with. Alternative is that it just busts through the 200dma and goes for the huge level of support at 2040, but i’d give that only a 20% chance.

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    Our model is still giving a SHORT signal. However I took profits on my shorts about 15 minutes before the close. I just saw too many positive divergences forming, when we were near key level of 2085 and the 200 dma. Lots of news tomorrow with the jobs report, FED speakers and Rig count.

    The hourly SPX continued to show positive divergences at the lows of the day, while hourly VIX formed additional negative divergences, though we are likely not done with the VIX uptrend quite yet.

    Our proprietary Technicals Model had another horrible day, continuing the longest losing streak since its 2006 starting point.

    Oil may be due for a weak bounce given indecision in its daily candle on lower volume. This is supported by positive trends in the HYG:IEF ratio today. That said, I believe any bounce should be sold into and there are lower lows on the horizon.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. Well I hate to bring up my (not saying I thought it up) simplistic January effect indicator,BUT…after all these months,I had forgot about it.Could it work again?We shall see.All I know is,it saved me many thousands in 2008.Good luck all.

  26. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Breakout? – First buying interest here in the middle of the night. “Big boys” still waiting outside (small orders: 1-4 lots), but indicators are giving first buy signals in an extremely oversold and pessimistic market (election woes).
    Ndx (futures hourly) –

    • locanbbs says:

      UPDATE – %BB-report: All stock indices still in the red, but almost all improved yesterday despite the market fall.

    • locanbbs says:

      Cycles & Stocks: Yesterday was the last cycle bottom till the 14th (full moon), so this should be good at least for a bounce. The first decent individual stock buy signals for a while: BEN, KMX, BEI.DE (special situations?)

  27. Caldaro how goes it? Cubs win World Series how about that. Does that mean that bios can rally even with a Hillary win? Hope
    All Is well my friend

  28. This just posted.Final prognostication:Nadeem Walayatt is predicting Trump wins the popular vote 51-49%.Great,but does that mean an electoral vote win?It’s going to be closer than Huma and Hillary–before the goof-up of course.

  29. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • kvilia says:

      Bouraq, I agree with you and surprised Phil sold gold as it is in the extensions long. OK, now – one question I have is if market sell-off picks up its steam, would miners get dragged down while GOLD would go up? Anyone?

      • fionamargaret says:

        My money would be on GLD….just in case….margin calls are not discriminating…

      • Depends on the dollar.Previous selloff of stocks and gold stocks together were because the DXY was rallying.Clinton losing ground this last week has brought the dollar down.If she loses,the trend says dollar continues down.But that’s so this week…lol.It’s a tough call.

      • phil1247 says:

        kvilia

        all extension longs from the oct low have failed on /gc

        what usually happens after that is a bounce… which we have seen

        gold must prove to me that the 1310 short entry was not front run at 1309
        then i may rebuy …

        re miners..
        ..they are stocks
        ..if stocks collapse i would suspect they go down also

        • kvilia says:

          Yes, phil – words of wisdom. I meant extensions longs on 15 min chart but your point is very solid. I am 25% short in RUT 2x leveraged fund, the rest is in cash and waiting for some solid clues. Cheers and have a good weekend – no trades on Friday🙂
          Oh yeah, I was waiting for a bomb to explode on the weekend even before the references made – reopened investigation would not have happened without strong evidence – Comey is not an idiot, and he is Obama’s figure. This weekend is a perfect time to end Hillary’s career and much more for corrupted syndicate of many, irrelevant of party, if indeed there is something. I am out to the store to get some popcorn.
          Lastly – Tony – I sense you are ready to abandon your PIII or whatever big up it is. To tell you the truth, I am looking at the charts and i’m getting scared for public – lots of folks may get hurt badly.
          Cheers,
          kv

      • bouraq says:

        Who is Phil? And no, if gold goes up, miners go up.

    • fotis2 says:

      Nice work on GLD Bouraq.

  30. tommyboys says:

    Fear really climbing on this election incertainty. VIX hit over 22.5 today! Greed/Fear under 17.

    From yesterday…

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/02/investing/extreme-fear-stocks-election-trump-clinton/

  31. torehund says:

    Monthly RSI on Spx touching the lower trend-line, see if it holds.

  32. I can’t see how we have anything but bounces. My bearishness is back. No matter who wins the election political drama is going to continue for months. This can’t be anything but negative. For both consumers and business. On top of that, we have an interest rate hike in December. Mr market has always been able to climb the wall of worry. Not so sure this time. Definitely not holding any positions overnight. V shaped recoveries scare the hell out of me being short and political term oil being long. Scalping from here on out.
    Good luck all

  33. phil1247 says:

    tony

    isnt the bullish divergence
    you were showing on the daily spx macd invalidated now?
    also it has been almost 2 months below the zero line

    isnt this a bear market configuration for macd?

  34. pooch77 says:

    Think we need a 1.5-2%drop in the dow as it is lagging the downturn.Look how the qqq’s caught up to iwm and spx

  35. EL MATADOR says:

    Thank Tony,

    I’ve have made some big bets this year and done alright.
    First I bet big on the day of the Br-exit vote and won big.
    Then I bet big that Cubs were going to win the 2016 World Series and won big
    Now I am betting big again that Trump is going to win POTUS….I don’t support Trump, nor Hillary, but my gut tells me Trump’s gonna win POTUS.

    6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/donald-trump-path-to-270-scenarios/

  36. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    SPX is retesting the 2-year breakout-line/neck-line this week (Chart 1) to determine a continued upswing or a false 2016 breakout.
    Meanwhile, a 7-wave decline since the ATH is approaching the pink line (Chart 2). The point 6 to 7 downswing can be counted as the green [a][b][c] or the blue incomplete impulse wave (Chart 3).
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/market-timing-update-11316.html

  37. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al.


  38. vivelaamo says:

    Close outside the BB tomorrow for 4 days in a row is something we didn’t even see in Jan although we did in August 15. It’s hardly an august style crash tho. At least we should be flat tomorrow. This move down is getting as boring as the fed induced rally’s.

  39. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony

    Do you want the driving directions to attend the 2016 Cubs World Series Championship Parade starting Friday Nov 4 th @ 10:00 am @ Wrigley then scooting over to Grant Park hosted by Rahm & pals ?
    Or you can meet me and a few friends in Berwyn for a “fashion show” and a couple of beers at a nice place with a pending liquor license as my guest😉

Comments are closed.