SHORT TERM: downtrend continues, DOW -29
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 265K v 258K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2098, bounced up to 2103 in the opening minutes, and then started to drift lower. At 10am factory orders were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.2%, and ISM services were reported lower: 54.8 v 57.1. The decline continued throughout the day with not much more than a four point bounce along the way. Then at 3:30 the SPX hit 2085 before bouncing into a 2089 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls and the trade deficit at 8:30.
The market opened unchanged today, bounced to SPX 2103, then declined throughout the day. At today’s SPX 2085 low the market had reached the 2085 pivot. The next support pivot is at 2070, which also represents a 61.8% retracement of the June-August uptrend. The daily RSI is now the most oversold it has been since early January. The hourly RSI is now displaying another positive divergence. These divergences, however, have only led to 10+ point bounces since last week. Clearly the path of least resistance has been to the downside since early last week. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend