SHORT TERM: slightly lower downtrend low then bounce, DOW -77
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported lower: 147K v 154K. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2112 close, ticked down to 2106, then hit unchanged at 10am. After that the market started to head lower again. With only 5 point bounces along the way the SPX hit 2094 just after the FED released their statement at 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20161102a.htm. Then the market started to rally. By 3:30 the SPX had hit 2105. But then pulled back into a SPX 2098 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.85%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then factory orders and ISM services at 10am.
The market opened lower today, bounced to unchanged, then hit SPX 2094 in afternoon trading. At that level short term momentum set up a positive divergence, and it represented a 50% retracement of the June-August uptrend. If that was the low for the downtrend, the first objective would be to get back to the 2116 pivot and then clear it. So far the market has only rallied from SPX 2094-2105. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum set up a positive divergence, while the daily RSI was extremely oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend