Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: decline accelerates, DOW -105

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2126 close. Then it started to pullback. At 10am ISM was reported higher: 51.9 v 51.7, and construction spending was reported lower: -0.4% v -0.7%. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2119. After a bounce to SPX 2124 by 11am the market headed even lower. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2198. Then it rallied to close at SPX 2112.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.70%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, then the FED’s FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market opened at the same level it opened yesterday: the SPX 2131 pivot. But today there was no pullback then rally higher. Today the pullback started a decline to the lowest levels since early July. Not all that unexpected. With the NAZ recently joining the SPX/DOW in downtrends the path of least resistance was to the downside. The first level of support, the 2116 pivot range, gave way in the early afternoon for the next level of support around SPX 2100. Should this fail to hold there are the 2085 and 2070 pivots below that. While the pressure is to the downside we are expecting this downtrend to end this week. The daily RSI is already at quite oversold levels. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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132 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/31/bombshell-report-secret-trump-server-possibly-communicating-russia.html

    Interesting how the FBI is not saying anything about the RUSSIA tie with Trump but was compelled to re-open a case that still showed ZERO information that revealed anything new. Stranger is the fact that we will NOT know the findings till AFTER election. We had Trump praising Putin on national TV and asking HIM to hack into the Clintons emails. And guess what happened, he did. BUT Trump and his staff are the only ones that don’t believe it came from PUTIN.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html

    So lets talk criminality here. You are voting for a person that asked for help from Putin, praises him, promised to jail the Federal Judge that overlooked his University scandal. On and on we go yet not a single person here thinks these actions are beyond reprehensible. Instead we will do anything to jail crooked Hillary. Misogynist? Pretty darn convincing.

    Most here are convinced that the idiot FBI director has something. Even after the facts came out that he needed permission first to look into the new emails. Even after the fact came out that an undercover Russian operative warned that Russia had ties with Trump for years. Even after the uncovering of the server that links Russia to the previous campaign manager. FBI says there is nothing there to report yet he reported thousands of unread emails to the world.

    Rigged, conspiracy? Why are the right winged angry white men allowed to dominate this rhetoric? If this isn’t a conspiracy of epic proportions I don’t know what is. this is NOT some secret hidden or fake reports. We have facts and they add up to something rotten.

    Hey TONY, you were convinced the FBI had something and the BOMBSHELL was about to explode. Want to elaborate on that? Love the paranoia on rigged system when it doesn’t conform to your view on how the world should react and behave. Even more startling is the fact that these same people either praise Trumps actions or excuse his bad behavior. if you want to excuse his bad behavior you would have to go back 50 years. he has been consistent and a perfect candidate for prison life. He makes his living off of cheating and bullying. His vile behavior against Obama 8 years ago when he spend his own money to place posters that he was an illegal Muslim. Groping, inciting riots, inciting people should intimidate voters at minority polling places, making fun of war heroes, alienating leaders of allied nations while praising dictatorships, 5th grade understanding of the world, tax dodger, cheats contractors and his own pollsters out of money. Millions of money lost of other peoples money as he went bankrupt and maintained a lavish life style, black listed applicants to his apartments. On and on this goes and the really shocking thing about it is he not only gets away with it he is praised for it. Imagine people voting for a record that I described. Mind you these allegations are not allegations but facts.

    We live in times that defy logic and common sense. he should have been shunned and booed off 6 months ago. we get what we deserve and in this instance its the death sentence. Congrats to anyone that can defend or pretend everything I mentioned about his character isn’t valid. GOOGLE it for authenticity and verify it with other sources.

    Hope he wins so I can see all that voted for him pretend they never voted his way. Lets Make America Great Again!

    Market should not find bottom till next week. Slow grind from here till election.

    • So we can count on your vote for Trump?lol.

      • Even after my rant and letting out much built up steam I agree with odds makers current view. Trump has a 25 percent chance of winning. Like the “X” factor when FBI announcement was made anything going forward of that nature could cause a major shift. Would take a lot more than opening up email case. If Clinton was smart she would play the Trump card. Incite here base and declare a rigged election where they don’t want a woman to run the nation. With the Russia/Trump ties and his own words people will believe it and vote. She isn’t the best at campaigning and has no charisma. How she won and how the party stepped aside for her to run is as much a mystery as allowing Trump into the Republican Party. The political party circus that came to town.

    • purplember says:

      Francis or Gary, the left is trying to find anything to pivot off Hellary corruption. Clinton are basically a mafia family – clinton foundation took in 137 million in 2014 and 6% went to charity. that’s corruption.

      trump server communicated to russia bank. are you kidding me? yes they should investigate but trump does business on worldwide basis as well.

      • purplember says:

        Gary please give us your view of how Hillary paid homeless and mentally ill to cause violence at trump rallies then say Trump supporters are hillbillies & deplorables? corruption?

        Gary, CNN gave debate questions to DNC Brazile so Hillary would be prepared. corruption?

        how come you don’t talk about these

      • Nice trick of hand. 89 percent went to charity. LOOK IT UP! Grants? they are not a private charity. National Average for such a public charity is 75 percent. WOOPS! There you go again, getting facts from dubious sources.

        http://www.factcheck.org/2015/06/where-does-clinton-foundation-money-go/

        BUT you can believe and listen to anyone that has your view and by all means don’t get the real facts and absolutely never check your sources and verify it.

        I can set up my own political smear website and say anything I want to slant it my way. Too bad the WEB doesn’t have a filter on it to prevent the FACTS from getting in the way. No need for that filter because people with extreme bias will stop at the site that fits their bias. I wonder if you ever went back to check all their prior reporting and made some conclusion on their believability. nah, that requires 15 minute of your time. never mind.

        So I want you to verify your assumptions against mine and get back to me.

  2. What happened?Fed speaks…gold down $7(not much)…DXY up a lousy.25 point…GDX down a whopping 4%(wtf?)from 25.80 to 24.60 in an hour.I HATE the Fed.

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Expect a big bounce tomorrow or Friday.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    While stocks continue to slide, the bond market is struggling to catch a bid, very weak….

  5. mtu MTU says:

    [250pm] SPX update-
    Continued tracking of a 7-wave decline (Chart 1) and squiggles for the point 6-7 leg (Chart 2). See charts.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/market-timing-update-11216.html

  6. H D says:

    100 point hit, +D HWB now 2(144) it’s on the charts. JMHO

    Go Cubs!

  7. pkr97 says:

    GM Tony sir,

    If downtrend continue next week then bullish III rd wave scenario negated?

  8. pooch77 says:

    Dec rate hike Trump president ouch markets

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Me love me gold

  10. lunker1 says:

    The June low was 34 points below the May low. 2119-21=2099 and -34=2085p

  11. blackjak100 says:

    It’s interesting to note the daily RSI(5) is more oversold than the 1/20/16 low by quite a bit. The bounce/ralleye could be very big!

  12. captbara says:

    USD will be stick saved by Yellen I think.

  13. What’s the Fed going to lie about today?Last chance to help Hillary.

  14. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – the DOW just overlapped wave 1 on the weekly chart, meaning we can start thinking ED again? The Jan lows did not test/undercut the Aug 24th, 2015 lows, so hard to count that as P4. If the Aug 24th, 2015 flash low was P4, than it’s a clear ED thus far, with ABC moves inside a 5-wave overlapping contracting diagonal. SPX has also overlapped wave 1.

    DIA, 2yr weekly chart: P5 ED?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/c9rb5AvV/

  15. my plan is running out of time. Was thinking 2090 by 1:30 than rally hard rest of day. Drop it

  16. ariez5 says:

    On the SPX yesterday we decisively broke a very clear descending triangle dating back to Sept. 7. It projects to at least 2063.

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Bottomed Tues at WS3 @ 209.58?
    Back Test WR1 @ 211.81 ~ WPP @ 213.19 on Tap?
    Technicals sufficiently oversold.

    #GoCubsGame7

  18. stmro says:

    Breadth weak. Leaders weak. This isn’t going to be a double bottom.

  19. GdX gap filled at 25.70..went to 25.90.Now some weakness.Next gap up at 29 or below at 20.
    BREAKING.Oil inventories build of 14 million barrels.

  20. EL MATADOR says:

    Copper appears to be completing wave e of an 11 month 4th wave triangle, IMO

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/JzIGNCjF/

  21. Battle for 1300 today in gold.No +divs on any time frame yet on SPX.Europe indicating more downside.Later.

  22. ariez5 says:

    Tony, I seem to have had a turnaround (for the better) in my trading in the last few months. I want to thank you again for all the information you provide.

  23. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: In V.3.2 since mid-August. I regard this wave as a Double-Three flat complex (abc-X-abc). This wave has been elusive IMHO (as all correctives!?). If flat then the targets would be 10350 or 10250.

    DAX30 1h: http://www.screencast.com/t/8cCNX0IEuE
    DAX30 4h: http://www.screencast.com/t/JKGv6q3ZUY
    DAX30 daily: http://www.screencast.com/t/Z8z91owl2pX

  24. alexh110 says:

    Interesting to see the timing here: we have 94 trading days from the February low to the Brexit low.
    Then next week’s election is exactly 94 trading days after the Brexit low!
    It’s like the February low was anticipating the two biggest events of this year!
    Seems to suggest the current downtrend will bottom on Election Day next Tuesday.

    • aahmichael says:

      Actually, what you’re seeing is the 47 TD cycle that’s been in the market since the 9/29/15 low. So far, it’s been alternating between swing lows and swing highs.
      1. 09/29/15L – 12/02/15H, 45 days
      2. 12/02/15H – 02/11/16L, 48 days
      3. 02/11/16L – 04/20/16H, 47 days
      4. 04/20/16H – 06/27/16L, 47 days
      5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, 50 days
      (Also, the 9/1/16 minor low was 47 days from the 6/27/16 low.)

      • alexh110 says:

        Thanks aahmichael, interesting stuff.
        It surely can’t just be coincidence that this cycle duration lines up perfectly with the 94 day gap between Brexit and the election. So the market was obviously anticipating this gap.
        Are you positioning for a low on Election Day?

        • aahmichael says:

          While I’m always aware of cycles, I never enter or exit trades simply based on cycles. Cycles generally work perfectly…until you put money on them. I remain maxed out aggressively short from 2192, which I entered on 8/15. The market has done nothing in the last 2 1/2 months to cause any change in my position.

      • pooch77 says:

        Wow that is very intersting,thanks for posting

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today I have opened up my analysis to all. Subscribers were e-mailed about major changes at one of my data providers which necessitated re-working of my scripts. I chose to spend my time doing that, rather than post without the model and having a longer down-time. Thank you for your patience.

    Both the SPX hourly and $VIX hourly suggest another higher high is coming for SPX (low for $VIX). This could occur overnight or tomorrow in early trading. I’d still like to see new highs in Oil and the HYG:IEF ratio which would set up the technicals just right for a change in trend lower. We need to keep watch of the SPX Summation Index which is nearing a negative value for the first time since Jan-Feb 2016. Also, our proprietary Technicals Model (cumulative) is nearing a bearish cross of its 200 dma for the first time since Jan-Feb 2016. If these occur soon, chances are that the relief rally is over and the new primary trend is much lower.

    More discussion and charts here: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

    • stormchaser80llc says:

      2nd paragraph should read:

      We are in the midst of a selloff, with our model still indicating a SHORT signal. The monthly chart continues to imply a topping pattern. In the short term, divergences have yet to be put in, supporting lower lows on the SPX. Oil looks especially bleak. However its not all doom and gloom as positive divergences in breadth and % above MA along with the proprietary Technicals Model suggest a bounce is setting up for the medium range.

  26. Looking at the electoral map,I don’t see how Trump can win Mich,Wisc or Penn.He needs one of them to finish the deal.I think he falls just short–unless another blockbuster news item comes out.I’m waiting for Nadeem Wallayat to check in with his prediction.If Clinton wins….gold will probably fall precipitously.Until then–enjoy.

  27. zvyezda says:

    Drudge is headlining this guy and linking to his video. While there is a huge conspiracy and they are crooks, this rubs me the wrong way. As long as no international names, especially the major ones that begin with the letter “R”, are mentioned and it stays only domestic, I call B.S.

    Need to get some sleep. Figure out whether to put the chips on black or red and I’ll see you in the A.M.

  28. pooch77 says:

    Is Yellen gonna turn market tomorrow???

  29. blackjak100 says:

    Flipside for 2098 not being the low…only 3 up in ES from its low. That creates a potential problem for a low in $SPX.

  30. blackjak100 says:

  31. mcgcapital says:

    Nothing suggests we’ve hit a bottom here. Looking at some momentum indicators we’re oversold but it’s in the context of there having being a very narrow sideways trading range. Today we cleared that range to the downside and closed below it. That means that bears are in control until they aren’t. I’m in the camp that thinks the market finds a level and we have another go at the highs before year end but price needs to prove something. My main market is the FTSE and that has tested 6930-40 at least ten times in the past couple of weeks so a break is significant. Until we get a reversal off a support zone (e.g. 6820, 6770, 6720, 6640) or we clear back above the support turned resistance at 6930-40 then the market is a sell

  32. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  33. blackjak100 says:

    I’m not sure if bottom is in and I was wrong about bounce before plunge. This just means the plunge may not occur. I like the odds below which means a close above 2126 by Thurs. If TC’s count is correct, this is how I would count it in EW:

    From 2194
    A=2157
    B=2188
    C=2098 (counts perfectly as contracting ED (2119-2180-2115-2155-2098) 5pts short of A=2.618*C which is acceptable fib ratio (within 10% of target)

    Duration: 55 days (FIB FIB FIB)

  34. jobjas says:

    power of fib projection applied for the correct wave (not any wave)

  35. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et OEW team, excellent market tracking.


  36. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony Go Cubs !

  37. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX filled one of the three gaps as well as tested the blue line and rebounded into the close (Chart 1). It can probe for its MA200 around 2080 and the pink line for potential support if the market chooses to do so. Today’s drop has satisfied the minimum requirement of a 7-wave pullback (Chart 1), as well as a couple of tracking counts in SPX (Chart 2 green/red) and in ES(Chart 3). Note the potential EDT/LDT decline since mid-September.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2016/11/market-timing-update-11116.html

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