SHORT TERM: decline accelerates, DOW -105
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2126 close. Then it started to pullback. At 10am ISM was reported higher: 51.9 v 51.7, and construction spending was reported lower: -0.4% v -0.7%. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2119. After a bounce to SPX 2124 by 11am the market headed even lower. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2198. Then it rallied to close at SPX 2112.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.70%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2116 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, then the FED’s FOMC statement at 2pm.
The market opened at the same level it opened yesterday: the SPX 2131 pivot. But today there was no pullback then rally higher. Today the pullback started a decline to the lowest levels since early July. Not all that unexpected. With the NAZ recently joining the SPX/DOW in downtrends the path of least resistance was to the downside. The first level of support, the 2116 pivot range, gave way in the early afternoon for the next level of support around SPX 2100. Should this fail to hold there are the 2085 and 2070 pivots below that. While the pressure is to the downside we are expecting this downtrend to end this week. The daily RSI is already at quite oversold levels. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend