friday update

SHORT TERM: recent pullback continues, DOW -8

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher, then lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: 2.9% v 1.4%. The market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2133 close, dipped to 2128, and then began to rally. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 87.2 v 87.9. Around 1pm the SPX hit 2141, and then began to selloff when news broke that the FBI was reopening the Clinton case. The market then hit SPX 2119 just past 2pm. After that it was just as choppy heading into a SPX 2126 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW was -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ was -0.60%. Bonds rose 1 tick, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2116 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2177 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 58.0% v 58.5%.

Quite a volatile day: decline, rally, selloff, rally, then decline again. At today’s low the SPX came within 4 points of the recent 2115 low. As we have been noting this week, with all the choppy activity, this downtrend does not appear to be done yet. Two potential patterns are emerging for this Minor wave 2 correction. Should know more by next week. Short term support is now at the 2116 pivot, and SPX 2100, with resistance at the 2131 pivot and the mid-SPX 2140’s. Short term momentum created a positive divergence early, rallied, dropped, then created another positive divergence at the low. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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25 Responses to friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Richard, I have 68 for the high for oil…if we get off the slightly bearish bias spinning wheels…

  2. Richard Glackin says:

    WTI: Anyone looking for a five wave ‘C’ wave up in crude (starting the beginning of August) is disappointed as, what could have been a fourth wave has already violated the territory of wave 1. However, if WTI continues to drop to (depending on timing) a little below $47, then we could be heading north after that in the form of a leading diagonal that started the 1st of August. Long term, I’m still looking for $20 crude but not until this corrective move up completes. The call for $60+ oil appears to be entirely within the reach of this move up. I’m not expecting it to exceed $70. I welcome any comments.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      A continued drop in crude and the S&P would certainly be consistent with their recent trends. Again, the 2085 pivot for the S&P ‘feels’ like a likely target and could correlate with a 47 ish local bottom in crude and could also correlate with the timing of the election process. Just food for thought.

  3. torehund says:

    ..hats on folks 🙂

  4. Newmont missed its earnings by 8 cents.Down 3.6% after hours.Comforting words from analysts and a raise for dividend holders from 2.5 cents to 5 cents.Then there’s the possible flip of the election.Gold should show something Monday if traders are going to use this as a bullish white swan.Should be enlightening.

  5. Thanks Tony
    Dow daily
    Monthly,Double bottom NL and pitch,note that the upper BB was not touched yet

  6. blackjak100 says:

    I still think you have to buy the dip below 2115 next week. At least there’s been very decent trading ops intraday last few days.

  7. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    QQQs daily: Who would have thunk it – it looks like Comey kinda understands trend lines and gap fills. 😉 Perfect timing, dude! =)
    Enjoy the weekend everyone!

  8. Had to laugh,I mentioned 23.83 as the cutoff point of the HRC news being bullish or bearish.Finishes RIGHT AT 23.83.I guess more news will decide the direction.Good luck all.

  9. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Waiting for the Btk/Iwm to shake off itself, then the boomerang 🙂
    Good weekend to all on board.

  10. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    A red October. Today’s violation of the neckline and decline (which fell short of the HS target, and closed below the neckline) may or may not be enough for a probe of the blue line (as discussed yesterday). More analysis to come in the weekend commentary. See chart.

  11. captbara says:

    As soon as the market “figures out” that an HRC indictment would actually bring down large swaths of corruption in Washington, it will be extremely bullish, not bearish.

    • tommyboys says:

      That assumes no huge swaths of neocons on Wall Street in cohoots with DC … All one hot mess.

    • Making money this week has been like taking candy from a baby, on Thursday SPX telegraphed a Bearish Gartley pattern prior to the open which produced a very swift 12+ points, then on Friday a Bullish Crab pattern for another swift 10+ points.
      Both trades were posted prior to the open @martinthomas208

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