SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -30
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, then turned higher. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 258K v 260K, and durable goods orders were reported lower: -0.1% v 0.0%. The market gapped up to SPX 2147 at the open and immediately began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2139 yesterday. At 10am pending home sales were reported higher: +1.5% v -2.4%. By 10:30 the SPX had closed the gap and hit 2133. After that the market tried to rally again. The rally ended at SPX 2142 around noon. Then the market pulled to SPX 2133 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Bonds dropped 14 ticks, Crude rose 45 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +2.3%) at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was raised to 2.1% v 2.0%.
The market gapped up at the open today for the second time this week. But unlike the first one which wasn’t sold until the next day, this one was sold immediately. Since the SPX 2115 low, this is the fourth gap up opening that has been sold. This is quite similar to the series of gap up openings that were sold in September after the SPX 2120 low. As a result, just like in September, a choppy pattern continues to unfold. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2140’s and low-2150’s. Short term momentum remained between neutral and oversold all day. Best to your trading tomorrow’s Q3 GDP report.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: uptrend