Thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy Thursday Op-ex, DOW -40

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but then backed off when the ECB made no changes. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims rose: 260K v 243K, and the Philly FED was lower: 9.7 v 12.8. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2144 close, dipped to 2137, and then started to rally. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.2% v -0.2%, existing home sales were reported higher: 5.47M v 5.33M, the SPX hit 2147 and then started to decline. At 11am the SPX hit 2133. The market then rallied to SPX 2146, pulled back to 2139, then ended the day at 2141.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow is option-expiration Friday.

The market opened lower today, on this volatile Thursday options-expiration. Traded down to SPX 2137, rallied to 2147, down to 2133, rallied to 2146, then ended at 2141. Down 3 points on the day. With today’s pullback we now observe five waves from the SPX 2115 low: 2149-2124-2148-2133-2146. If an uptrend underway now is the time for it to start rising in earnest. Short term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2140’s and lower-2150’s. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s negative divergence to oversold, then bounced to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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113 Responses to Thursday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    while the dollar looks good longer term

    its time to ring the cash register now

    post triangle thrust has reached target

    we are within nickles of the ext long target

    its been an ” exciting ” 2 days in the dollar .


  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    GE lowers guidance and paints a dim outlook

    explains why its almost flat today

    market is a joke


  3. NEWBIE says:

    The end is near, this is in no way bullish. 1987 coming!!!


    • alexhartley1 says:

      Personally Newbie I see your ‘BEAR’ time coming in 2017 (Apr-May17). I don’t see us getting much lower than 2094 – 2040 area before a strong rally into Dec and maybe beyond. That is unless Trump wins in which case ironically we’re likely to see the market drop. At the moment though (and whilst British and having witnessed the Brexit upset) I don’t see him beating Clinton who I dislike even more.


  4. pooch77 says:

    Wow bears dropped the ball everyday this week


  5. captbara says:

    Pretty clear TLs and channel on the advance from 2114. Bullish within, bearish out, keep it simple.


    • captbara says:

      Much cleaner on Nas, SPX is just a messy kids drawing, not reliable and full of fakeouts.


    • blackjak100 says:

      still very hard to be long $SPX here IMO. Not easy to be short either but I did cover my short this AM (not as close to low as I would’ve liked) and just reopened another at 2142…with stop at 2147.


  6. mjtplayer says:

    Boring market, 3 months and counting of a drifting sideways market. With the election in 2.5 weeks, I suspect the sideways market continues. After the election, the Fed’s Dec meeting will be 1 moth away, meaning we could continue drifting sideways for another 2 months.



    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      market is a complete and utter joke

      central bankers should be ashamed with themselves


    • phil1247 says:

      plenty of excitement in dollar

      lots of money to be made quickly if you stay away from spx and oil

      unless you like to be chopped up in a trendless mess

      look to trade markets in extensions


  7. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Not much of a bounce,Mr C.. on the hourly + div.


  8. mtu MTU says:

    [110pm] SPX update-
    Squiggles from this week’s high and near term tracking counts update. See charts.


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