SHORT TERM: choppy Thursday Op-ex, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, but then backed off when the ECB made no changes. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims rose: 260K v 243K, and the Philly FED was lower: 9.7 v 12.8. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2144 close, dipped to 2137, and then started to rally. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.2% v -0.2%, existing home sales were reported higher: 5.47M v 5.33M, the SPX hit 2147 and then started to decline. At 11am the SPX hit 2133. The market then rallied to SPX 2146, pulled back to 2139, then ended the day at 2141.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow is option-expiration Friday.
The market opened lower today, on this volatile Thursday options-expiration. Traded down to SPX 2137, rallied to 2147, down to 2133, rallied to 2146, then ended at 2141. Down 3 points on the day. With today’s pullback we now observe five waves from the SPX 2115 low: 2149-2124-2148-2133-2146. If an uptrend underway now is the time for it to start rising in earnest. Short term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2140’s and lower-2150’s. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s negative divergence to oversold, then bounced to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: uptrend