Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat open quiet trading, DOW +41

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported lower: 1047K v 1142K, but building permits were reported higher: 1225K v 1139K. The market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2140 close, and then began to pullback. At 10am the SPX hit 2138, made the low for the day, and started to work its way higher. By 2pm the SPX had hit 2148 when the FED’s beige book was released. Then the market drifted down to a SPX 2144 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold rose $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets, weekly jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then existing homes sales and leading indicators at 10am. Today the Q3 GDP est. was raised to +2.0% v +1.9%.

The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, and then took out yesterday’s SPX 2144 high on its way to 2148. Thus far from the SPX 2115 low we observe one wave up to 2149, a pullback to 2124, now a rally to 2148 thus far. Not a whole lot of upside activity yet, as there is several overhead resistance areas to overcome first. Maybe the ECB, options expiration and earnings will be the next catalysts. Short term support is at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the low-2150’s and mid-2160’s. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence but not much of a pullback thus far. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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77 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:


    look awesome – JPM, UNH, V, MSFT

    look very good – GS, AAPL, CAT, BAC, C

    look ok – BA, CVX, XOM

    neutral – HD, AXP, DD

    look bad – MMM, NKE, MCD, DIS

    look really bad – JNJ, UTX

    look atrocious – TRV, PG, WMT, VZ

    Id say its pretty split but I would expect BA and CAT to start looking bad due to a bunch of the cyclical reports so far and if energy falls then you have banks and tech left

    not very strong breadth when it comes to the big boys. BTW Microsoft had amazing numbers right?? Earnings and revenue FLAT year over year but I guess when you expect earnings to be down 10% and it comes in flat its something we should all cheer over on a company that has a 20 PE forward

  2. fotis2 says:

    Triangle story here

  3. will someone fold, or are the Bulls and Bears going to pay to see the river card after the close (Microsoft’s earnings) winner takes all. Im simply going to watch.

  4. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ OPEX, Blah, Blah! Still above the green zone support.
    But, possible ED.
    GL All

  6. mjtplayer says:

    The Dollar Index continues to chug along, a close above 98.17 would be bullish. A close above 98.58 and there’s no resistance till the 100 area. Currently trading 98.22

  7. torehund says:

    Us mantra “go crazy early”. Election process in Europe will be wild too as there is considerable substrate for turmoil. At hat time its rage off, system restored in the US.
    Good weekend Tony and followers.

  8. jobjas says:

    expecting retest of 2148 & then drop .

  9. phil1247 says:

    11: 30 reversal period

    took profits on SCO

    see you tomorrow !

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Russell and SP500 hanging on by a thread. Gotta hand it to Hillary’s puppet masters…………..they sure do support one another

  11. blackjak100 says:

    What seems clear from 2170….

    3 down, 3 up with a truncation which is bearish

  12. mtu MTU says:

    [1050am] SPX update-
    Bull/bear squiggles (Chart 1) and reaction at the green line and potential gap-fill and test of the blue line (Chart 2).

  13. good luck gary and bears. I covered my short, will watch from the sidelines today and tomorrow

  14. phil1247 says:


    in extension shorts

    added more sco
    and raised stops on sco bot premarket

  15. phil1247 says:


    extension long failed as suspected..
    ..sold gold on spike this am
    dollar rally and miserable action in other metals
    suggested gold could not go it alone…………
    although i dont like to use correlations

    support now at 1255

  16. stmro says:

    Bulls are weak. Bears are weak. God i hate OPEX. When will this market DO SOMETHING??

  17. Dollar making new high with a -div.So far,the highlight of the day.

  18. phil1247 says:


    nothing has changed from friday

    bearish below 2148

    target 2092

  19. mtu MTU says:

    [835am] ES update-
    ES is wedging or coiling depending on the perspective. ES has now satisfied the requirement for the red D if an expanding DT is in play. See chart.

  20. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – Would you know what happened for the Euro to 105 a day or two ago? Some kind of trader mistake? I see it marked on your charts. Thanks

  21. captbara says:

    Trump actually brought up the Project Veritas videos during the debate. But neither Hill or the moderator had any response to the damning accusations. Kind of telling, and a little surreal that it’s all unfolding like this. Reality truly is stranger than fiction.

    • CB says:

      You mean what he said about voter registration “irregularities” ?….

      It really is surreal if we still have a problem with the legal process like that…and it seems unreal when we supposedly live in the “information age..”

    • purplember says:

      corruption in our gov’t & media makes us not better than Russia or china. it’s sad but washington elites have no laws and do whatever they want.

      • purplember says:

        I’ll add: i have a friend in FBI and he’s getting out. says Comey is dirty cop and he’s tired of putting regular people in jail then watching politicians break laws with no punishment.

  22. CB says:

    An interesting night, as always with those two….
    2140-42 are important fib levels in ES. If we clear that level, keep an eye on 2147 and 2153.
    We have to stay above 2137/38. If that level fails, 2130is h could be tested.
    Mario Draghi on tap as well early in the morning. GL everyone.

  23. I’m a Trump guy…but this was the most one sided debate I’ve ever seen.It’s over.Wonder if Ivanka will run for president in 2020.

    • I’m surprised S&P isn’t up 50.Gold is even up.Good night all.

    • what happened? who won the debate?

      • fbender7 says:

        Donald was Donald and Hillary was Hillary. No winner or loser in my opinion. Nothing new to report. Hillary was well rehearsed and kept looking down at her notes a zillion times while she was talking. Donald was spontaneous and genuine as usual. Hillary kept saying, “We need to do this…we need to do that…” – a sure sign of ineptitude. Donald would say, “I’m going to do this…I’m going to do that…” – a sign that he might actually get something done if elected. Hillary has yet to be held accountable for her email scandal, the 4 murdered Americans in Libya, or her failed foreign policy as Sec of State. The debate reinforced my choice of Donald as prez. The moderator was the best of the 3 debates. After the debate, they were playing audio of two political analysts discussing the debate. They were both clearly in Hillary’s corner.

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today I started a short position just before the close due to negative divergences seen on SPX Hourly ADX DI, RSI, MACD and MACD histogram. I also identified that the Hourly $VIX pierced the bottom Bollinger Band and then closed within it. Its MACD is cycling toward a BUY but a lack of positive divergences has me leery that I could have been too early with the move.

    After the close I was able to see that the Technicals Model ended the day slightly more bullish than the market. That said, I find it interesting that it fell below the 200 day moving average of the cumulative Technicals Model. This could has implications in the longer term. Breath improved as one would expect as did the number of stocks above their longer moving averages.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. blackjak100 says:

    not a surprise here…NK changes nothing to his count. I bailed on my long for small profit because I expected a big ralleye from 2124 which never materialized. I certainly expected 2149 to be taken out today. Then again sometimes it takes third waves a little while to get going. It may happen tomorrow with big gap up.

  26. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Indexes deceive a bit, but to be honest this market has been flattishly correcting since April. Just look at the daily macd, just a little summer silence hiccup (b-wave) to enthuse the bulls. Flat line mania for 3 months, frustrating bulls and bears 🙂

  27. Thanks Tony for your always valuable insight and I want you to know any general comments on the market are only intended to compliment yours. That said, the market was totally hostage to calculated pivot points. At the open it drifted slightly below pivot and then headed higher to R2 and closed at R1. If 49.25 was the end of wave 1 or wave a, I would think it (49.25) must be taken out in the current wave however labeled providing it does not go below 38.25. It could possibly close the gap at 2129 ish. Opinions? But today’s high was only around 48.50…….presumably because of the calculated resistance. I’m seeing weakness in my buying and selling oscillator suggesting lower prices but these readings can change quickly and must be used in context of “the moment” Bespoke was quoted in an interesting article discussing end of day trading and the implications of late day selling. In a word, it is not constructive. In my humble view, I don’t think we can be really confident of direction until we break through the 50DMA and the low 60’s becomes a floor.

  28. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #oil at

  29. blackjak100 says:

    I nibbled short before close even though 2149 was not exceeded. If we get decent downward movement tomorrow, than the wave count favors an ED from 2170 where a triangle terminated. Credit goes to TJ for sticking with this count. However, it has to prove itself tomorrow as triangles and diagonals are not ‘common’ structures. To have both within same structure is still not probable.

  30. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX struggled with the green line as discussed yesterday (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks the near term squiggles. In addition, the potential gray triangle in Chart 2 corresponds to the green wave C(C) in Chart 3

  31. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony.

  32. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, appreciated OEW update.

    Q: “Thus far from the SPX 2115 low we observe one wave up to 2149” —is this considered to consist of an impulsive five wave sequence, or a corrective three wave affair?

  33. jobjas says:

    SPX should start dropping from here

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