Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +16

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5% too. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2137 close. After a dip to SPX 2133 in the opening minutes the market moved higher. At 2pm the FOMC minutes were released: Right after the release the SPX hit 2145. Then pulled back for the rest of the day to close at SPX 2139.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds slipped 1 tick, Crude dipped 55 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 and 2212 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and export/import prices at 8:30, then the treasury deficit at 2pm.

The market continued yesterday’s afternoon rebound today rising from SPX 2129 to SPX 2145 today. Then a small pullback ended the day at SPX 2139. Downtrend targets remain in place between SPX 2100+ and the 2116 pivot range, with two days left in the week. Short term support remains at the 2131 and 2116 pivots, with resistance at the 2177 pivot and SPX 2194. Short term momentum rebounded to above neutral from yesterday’s extreme oversold condition. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy downtrend continues

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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152 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. locanbbs says:

    Tony, I too am very appreciative of your analyses even though I perhaps don’t say so very often! Actually this is the only analytical web-site I visit regularly and the only one I contribute to at all. I know it’s difficult to keep such a herd of misfits and loud-mouths under discipline. I was a teacher before retirement, so I appreciate how hard that is!

  2. kvilia says:

    What about gold? I see GDX and NUGT to be of traders interest with gold still being in the short setup but not really moving. abchart, phil, anybody?

  3. Richard Glackin says:

    WTI: Yesterday, I was questioning myself…could that possibly be all of wave 5 (of ‘C’)…looks too small but then it looks a bit large for just wave 1 of 5 of ‘C’? Well, if there was any doubt we finished wave 2 today. 🙂 It was a very large retrace which somewhat negates the large size of the wave 1. $55 oil anyone?

  4. abchart says:

    SPX/Europe futurs: I think that the bounce already done/finish. Tomorrow a drop to the lows of today. SPX 2114, DAX 10350.

  5. tommyboys says:

    Biotech leading all day. SP has retested breakout topsline and is ready to rocket higher..

  6. phil1247 says:

    here are the extension shorts

  7. Richard Glackin says:

    It looks like we finished ‘v’ of 3 and are working on wave 4 with wave 5 down yet to come. I’m still looking for that 2085 area target.

  8. phil1247 says:


    2130 reached …which is the second . extension short entry

    sorry if i wasnt clear about “switch sides ” at 11:30 reversal

    that meant the /es also..
    …the most aggressive ext short had failed at 2120
    and this 10 point runup from 2120 to 2130 was a gimme

    see if there is reaction at 2130….the .50 ext short level

  9. kvilia says:

    Bearish until 2149 broken. This thing is going down in flames.

  10. vivelaamo says:

    This was the bottom in my opinion. Expect a big bounce tomorrow. If not then next week. I’m positioned for it. Stock market is a Bulls best friend.

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Short till somewhere in the ballpark of 2105 on spx cash , see u there shortly.

  12. stmro says:

    Hmm this bounce is looking uncomfortably strong right now. It really can’t close any higher than this, or it will look like a significant spike low.

  13. captbara says:

    Falling wedge on ES and NAS. Just rejected by the top line.

  14. bolderbob says:

    Tony do you think the bottom is in or is there one more wave down to go?

  15. mtu MTU says:

    [1220m] SPX update-
    SPX rebounds after hitting the Fib382 retrace and is at the lower end of its prior range (Chart 1), with a 3-wave (blue) or 5 wave (red) pattern (Chart 2). See charts.

  16. Gentlemen never discuss politics and their salary.

  17. captbara says:

    Closing out of the BB under 2126 for today would be nice. Same goes for Vix and NYMO.

  18. dwr51 says:

    Although I disagree with your political views and some of your world views, I just wanted to let you know that I am very appreciative of your market analysis

  19. phil1247 says:


    raised stops on SCO

    looking to add more shorts

    next target 49.22

  20. GDX…for the first time in ages (it’s early though),doing its own thing.Some see a gold rebound to 1300…then a resell.This would take GDX past my first target of 25.35,so not sure about that(possible though).This continues the 3BB rebound–the avg percent being 8-12% .I’ll stick with the 20d sma at 25.25-.35(hopefully).

  21. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Dax breaks out with indicator signals (hourly futures) –

    • locanbbs says:

      …but Crude breaking down simultaneously, so the Dax probably won’t get very far. Position closed with small gain.

    • locanbbs says:

      … unless oil can recover, which it is now attempting (“shakeout”, or is the PPT back again?…). We could have a bottom in…

    • locanbbs says:

      Got the “oily jitters”. The markets certainly look like they need a “second leg” (= second bottom). Short-term Ndx trade with nice gain, now out and waiting for the next bottom.

  22. phil1247 says:

    ext short front run

    next target /es 2103

  23. Well,the first day falling outside the BBs for SPX seems to indicate more downside potential for a while.2100 looks like a good stopping point for a brief rally…then it’s up to the dollar (and the Fed).

  24. jeffbalin says:

    Actually, now considering this isn’t minor 2. I don’t think we could still be in int 2. Tony is it possible we are still in primary 2? I have that on the table now.

    • jeffbalin says:

      For one thing, When 2 is a good bit longer in time then 1, I start looking at other possibilities

  25. H D says:

    One a spicy meataballa. SPX -55 for the week.

    Tony are your ok with Minor 2 overlapping Int i? Or is this the line to hold?

  26. abchart says:

    ES 2108.50, until 2105, we are in the area of 27/33 points bounce. Hourly positive divergeance ok. target toward 2132 (SPX 2139) for tomorrow morning.

  27. micky says:

    ES 2110 area another st support I had.

  28. kvilia says:

    Politics drives our lives at the moment, you cant hide unless you are ignorant. Having a view and posting it on your own blog should not be questioned. Being stupid and trying to find causes for world’s problems inside yourself should be questioned all the time. If the only thing a person finds between rosh-ha-shana and yom kipur is a beef with right-wing conspiracy rants, I feel sorry for them.

  29. uas2014 says:

    Tony, when you said “We continue to look for support, to end this downtrend, between SPX 2100+ and the 2116 pivot range. Possibly with some positive divergences.” you mean in 60 minutes or daily the – div?

  30. kvilia says:

    Trailing UVXY 15 cents since yesterday close – fun!

    • kvilia says:

      Sold, of course, but with this crazy instrument better have 10% in the pocket overnight than -20% tomorrow on the account balance. Holding and accumulating NUGT.

  31. mtu MTU says:

    [9am] ES update-
    ES tracking. Blue-rhyming with the Sep crash; Green- upward flat or A and B of EDT or large sideways triangle. See chart.

  32. phil1247 says:


    /ES 2114 target hit !

  33. ariez5 says:

    I’m a little surprised that you are not only letting the right-wing conspiracy rant go on and on but are jumping in on it as well. Of course, it is your blog, but it seems to go against your own expressed wishes when you reopened the blog several months ago that it be for market-related comments only. I will guess that many others like myself are biting their tongues in the hope that you will start enforcing this policy and not let the blog degenerate.
    As for the market, I disagree with your PIII scenario on many grounds, but your more granular comments about pivots and corrective/impulsive waves have been very helpful to me recently. Many thanks.

    • lcd00 says:

      My sentiments as well. I keep sitting on my hands after reading the inanities on here, people laughing in the face of common sense.

    • abchart says:

      Elections in the USA is a major market news right now. I see no right-wing conspiracy. Try to understand what’s wrong with the world is not a conspiracy but awakening. We talk, we don’t militate.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Not right wing nor left wing, both candidates are not right for the country.
      But maybe people will realize there is something to be learned by being offered two extremely negative candidates. Facts are facts. Wake up I hope.
      As for P3, since you don’t agree on that either I will spare myself the expense of repeating my view.

      • Lee X says:

        Well said Tony

      • ariez5 says:

        Abchart and Tony, I disagree. It is one thing to say something like “The recent market selloff seems to be because the markets are pricing in a Clinton victory, which means no massive geopolitical shock, which means the Fed likely raises rates.” It is another thing to argue that the Trump tape is all part of a left-wing, media-driven conspiracy. The man advocated sexual assault, and it’s on tape! That’s a fact, and I am awake to it.

        The time from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur is a time for inner reflection on one’s failings, and as a Jew, I spent the last 10 days doing just that. I am going to suggest that “understanding what’s wrong with the world” starts not with finding conspiracies but with understanding what is wrong with yourself.

        • tony caldaro says:

          agree with your second paragraph

        • tommyboys says:

          Be conscious of distractions. Seen plenty of narcissistic playboys as president. None of this suggests competence or incompetence of running the largest economy on the globe. A corrupt person is much more damaging to economy and country. Choose which you believe to be less corrupt.

          Always thought “public servants” – effectively supposedly the citizen’s “employees” – should do the job for very little pay. Give them room and board and $100k and thats about it. They are suppose to be serving the coutry for IT’S betterment, not their own. How does ANYONE amass hundreds of millions by sacrificially “serving”?

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          There’s a lot wrong with this world. There always will be. The best we can do is take care of ourselves and make sure our mind and heart is in the right place. You can’t give what you don’t have and things come from within. As far as the election there is some good in what is taking place. We have such a great government structure and constitution. The problem is the people quite frankly and that is because most people don’t have their heads on straight and are not right from within. We elected them people and as bad as they are (and they are bad) we got them there and that goes with every other congressman or senator. Be happy what you wish for right? Trump is more constructive here because a revolt or cleansing may be a good way to replace the corrupt. The problem is who do we end up replacing these leaders with? We have become unfortunately like an emerging market in that our politicians are horrible and we revolt and replace them with worse ones (bush Obama trump or Hillary ….crazy trifecta there). The other thing I’d say is the media is much to blame as the people are. They are supposed to be almost like another branch of government (crazy thought I know) in that they help keep politicians accountable and keep their power in check by printing the truth and presenting it fairly. The real journalist with real stories is dead. I’d say they are the devil. Trump is an arse but what they let Clinton get away with is absurdity at new levels. Such a shame. The founders of our country when they were trying to figure out what our government structure should look like realized that people needed power as did the leaders. They wanted people to have power but also realized that as bad as leaders can be if people ruled it would be worse and anarchy too!!! Unfortunately our poorly educated entitled demographic changing polarized country will continue to elect more morons. We need a truly great man to emerge that also has the gift of the gab and is like able. Someone out there needs to step up or our country will continue to decline by idiots who lead us elected by idiots

    • aahmichael says:

      Ariez, thank you for stating what I’m sure many readers have been thinking, as they watch this blog turn into just another political venting venue. You’re not alone.

    • xcaroline1 says:

      Thanks for your comments; my feelings exactly.

  34. abchart says:

    DAX live at 10368. I think that the area around10350/70 is the target of the day. A bounce Friday morning in Europe of about 150 points is possible, before another down leg with more volatility, target toward 10100 and even below.
    I will post a chart with the path later today.

  35. stmro says:

    They’re already talking about no rate hike in December

  36. kvilia says:

    Futes are quite red representing appr. SPX 2120 value at this time. It is very interesting for tomorrow, looks like sellers are taking control.

  37. stormchaser80 says:

    While SPX had a minor bounce today, we show how SPX hourly and $VIX hourly support another low for the market. Our proprietary Technicals Model made a lower low in early September vs. the Brexit low in June. This is wildly bearish for the SPX as the Brexit low was below SPX 2000.

    The market is slightly above a key level and 2015 highs, natural support. Let’s see how long that support can hold! Remember, the cumulative score of our Technicals Model has not confirmed the 2016 SPX highs. This last occurred in the Fall of 2007, but that negative divergence was much shorter in duration.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  38. Ny Times…a well known objective(lol)newspaper,has a lot of women coming out in one article,to say Trump grabbed them.A lady in her 60s,said “He groped me on an airplane 30 years ago”.Did the Times do a casting call?Of course NBC and CNN will do prime time specials on this (slight exaggeration).But you knew,after Trump denied this stuff happened,some media entity would follow up.

    • zvyezda says:

      Learned, the same lawsuit pushed by the Times over the summer **** with anonymous plaintiffs **** which was tossed out of the court systems in Texas and California, has now been shopped to a Clinton appointed judge in NY who agreed to hear it and they are saving that announcement as a smear close to the election. Trump should be preemptive with a scorched earth policy in advance.

      • I-m going to suggest protest marches by Trump supporters directed right at the corporate headquarters of these media giants–NBC,CNN and the NY Times,for starters –and demand resignations from the CEOs .Go right to their buildings.There are a lot of people,judging by the Trump rallies,who could be organized to do this.To me,it’s THAT important.Sorry Mr C for the non-stock stuff.That’s it for me for a while.Thank you.

  39. abchart says:

    SPX update:

    – A drop tomorrow (Thursday 13 October) to minimum 2120 maximum 2110.
    – Bounce Friday 14 October of minimum 25 maximum 33 pts (2137 or 2145). But only in the morning and we may close lower (red)
    – Next week: a spike in volatility with some damage is possible.

  40. captbara says:

    NBC Planned to Use Trump Audio to Influence Debate, Election

    Multiple sources connected with NBC tell us … top network execs knew about the video long before they publicly said they did, but wanted to hold it because it was too early in the election. The sources say many NBC execs have open disdain for Trump and their plan was to roll out the tape 48 hours before the debate so it would dominate the news cycle leading up to the face-off.

    • tony caldaro says:

      orchestrated personal attacks and fear tactics
      similar to what was used in Br-exit vote
      fears sells, until they catch on to your tactics

      • abchart says:

        Tony, you know from a long time that Hillary will win, because the establishment, lobbys, finance don’t want Trump as President. Hillary will change nothing and that what they want to win more money.

        • tony caldaro says:

          Agree, Hilliary is a member of the CFR. Trump is not, nor Pence.
          Since Nixon, 1970’s, the CFR has had either a president or vice president CFR member in the White House. Biden, Cheney, Clinton, Bush Sr. etc.
          Kick out the CFR, remove their globalist agenda.

          • abchart says:

            Yes, the real governments at the head of the great powers, it is not those that we see and have elected. There is a great government, composed of influential rich people, which has an agenda that runs regardless of the apparent changes. Almost everything is in their hands (money, industry, internet, drugs, energy, weapons…)
            We live in a global dictatorship that have a slogans: freedom, modernity, prosperity.

      • captbara says:

        The manipulation is completely out in the open now. But the gradual awakening of the masses might be the most bullish thing for America, long term.

        • tony caldaro says:

          americans are being played like an out of tune fiddle

          • tommyboys says:

            Not to gonon a political rant but …Yes the leftist media has really become too apparent. If Trump has accomplished anything it’s exposing the sham media controlled by like three people globally. Utterly pathetic and sickening. Trump may be a narcissistic bafoon but that’s not why he’s feared – and he’s feared from BOTH ends. It’s because he’s an outsider with the potential to upset the apple cart. Left and Right are just distractions for the little guy. The real power has both bought and paid for and doesn’t care who the pupet becomes. They DO care however about an outsider – in this case Trump – who won’t bow to the master. Get the word out and vote Trump – and hope he’s not assassinated. Sorry for the rant.

            • Totally correct assessments by all on the election.All we can hope for is that Trump is a stretch runner (I love horse racing).When the British councilwoman was shot a couple days before Brexit,everyone said Brexit would fail.There is some similarity to the Trump tape circumstances.Consensus is that it’s all over after that,but I still have my goldfingers crossed–not only for gold–but Trump winning…somehow.

      • purplember says:

        tony, i agree with you that americans are being played. however, i never thought we’d see (wikileaks proving it) media is corrupt and controlling the message / masses like it is. Media controlled message for Nazi’s – that turned out well

        we’re no better than Russia or Banana republic

        • What I can’t figure out…is how and why did it happen?When there were only 3 networks on TV,they knew what their responsibilities were–to keep the government crooks honest.
          But when cable exploded,many political viewpoints gravitated to all these different niche networks.Then I suppose,the main networks(ABC,CBS,NBC)decided to jump in and take sides as well–mostly Dem.My best guess.

          • zvyezda says:

            Learned, I think the trust of past decades was ill-placed but occurred because we did not have at least some access to raw information as we do now over the internet.

            As an example, Dan Rather in November of 1963 being the only member of the public permitted to view the Zapruder film before it was sequestered, and Rather announced to the public that the head wound shot to Kennedy came from the rear and his haed was thrown violently forward. When the Zapruder film was unembargoed @ 1976 it was obvious to all that that fatal shot came from the front with his head thrown abruptly backwards from the force of the blast.

            I think they have always served their paid globalist masters and rarely ever if at all the public.

    • zvyezda says:

      It seems Ryan’s office was the point player for advancing this attack on behalf of the Bush/Romney/GOPe cabal. They wanted Trump out, Pence to lose, drive all Trump supporters out of the party and then put in their business as usual cronies Ryan/Rubio in 2020.

      No better description possible of the personages complicit on each side than that given by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov:

  41. My guess is that we are heading down tomorrow.

  42. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $EURUSD at

  43. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    ICYMI, Yellen speaking on Friday.. GL everyone.

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